Once upon a time, there was a hockey team. A long forgotten hockey team, lost in a quagmire of mediocrity and mismanagement. Nobody came to their games and no one cared. Yet, a light shined bright within, offering a glimmer of hope for the future. New ownership and a full cupboard of prospects, headed by the most recent #1 overall pick, lay waiting and growing, surrounded by a stable of veterans. The expectations were low but the potential was there for marked improvement.
Does that sound like this year’s edition of the Florida Panthers? It does, but there is another Dale Tallon led team this is true for as well: the 2007-08 Chicago Blackhawks. You might be asking yourself, “Why bring them up? This is a Florida Panthers blog.” I’m bringing them up because this team serves as an ideal measuring stick for where the Panthers currently stand as a franchise, on-and-off the ice.
In the years leading up to 2007-08, the Blackhawks were plagued by attendance issues, compounded by years of mediocrity. The Blackhawks had missed the playoffs every season since 2002 and that 2002 appearance was the only one dating back to 1997. In 2004, the Blackhawks were named the worst franchise in all of North American sports, let alone the NHL. To add insult to injury, the Blackhawks were outdrawn on at least one occasion by the AHL’s Chicago Wolves (a game against the Panthers, no less) and no radio station in town would buy the Blackhawks radio rights, forcing the team to buy their own air time. It was a very dark time in the Windy City. This New York Times piece from February 2007 provides a decent synopsis of just how dark things were.
Panthers fans can empathize, for the team currently suffers a similar reality, arguably a worse one that has been dissected ad nauseam between their own attendance issues and calls for the team to be relocated to colder climates. This piece, however, is not about comparing tales of woe and validating feelings of negativity. This is about how performances match up over the course of these seasons and what positive messages we can find for the Panthers, if any. After all, the epilogue for the 2007-08 Blackhawks has been pretty sweet. Actually, very sweet.
Now, this is not a straight line comparison between these two teams. Every team blazes their own trail and it would not be fair to stack these teams up blow-for-blow. Instead, the 2007-08 Blackhawks serve more as an example of where the Panthers want to be both on-and-off the ice. It is as the title suggests: a measuring stick.
So, how do these teams measure up with each other? Let us begin off the ice.
The attendance woes of the Panthers are well documented but can it get any better? First, lets take a look at where they stand now:
The numbers are not good. This team has drawn under 10,000 for a vast majority of their games, exceeding that mark just four times. There is a little uptick at the end, thanks to the strong showing against the Penguins prior to the Christmas break, but there’s always an uptick during the Holidays. Here’s last year’s attendance as an example:
Notice the peak at Game 20? That game was on December 29, 2013, when the Montreal Canadiens visited, providing the season’s only sellout. The games on either side were all 15,000+ as well and steadily trailed off thereafter, ending lower than it did to start the season. Now, these numbers should be taken with a giant grain of salt. We’re talking a boulder-sized grain of salt. The Panthers papered the attendance numbers last season with tons of comps and giveaways. This season, however, has seen ownership take a more strict no-comps policy and predictably, this has brought down the numbers to a more realistic and sobering range. This has been emphasized by the presence of many tarps and a giant curtain blocking off one of the end zones in the 300 level. It does not look good but let’s bring in our measuring stick for a comparison:
As you can see, the Blackhawks had a busy opening night, followed by bad-to-middling attendance for much of the first half of the season. These numbers fluctuate a lot and are higher than what the Panthers are currently posting. However, it should be noted that the Blackhawks never took the stance the Panthers have on not papering the attendance numbers. We’re talking about a team that just months before, at the end of the 2006-07 season, was literally giving away expensive lower bowl tickets on Ticketmaster. That being said, take these early Blackhawk numbers with a Rock of Gibraltar-sized grain of salt.
However, notice two things: First off, the Blackhawks attendance numbers steadily increased from the beginning of the season, whereas this year’s Panthers numbers have remained relatively flat, with the exception of the Penguins game. Second, is that the Blackhawks experienced a bump in attendance at the holidays and that bump largely stayed thereafter, as the Blackhawks went 2-0-1 on their 3 game holiday homestand. This stresses the importance of a strong showing during these crucial holiday games. It is such a valuable time because people have more free time, the NFL’s regular season is winding down, and baseball season hasn’t started yet. Toss this in with a middling basketball team at the moment and you can see that it is a prime opportunity to strike. It’s important to get folks in the building now and generate some buzz around the team.
It is also important to note that starting with the final game of the 3-game holiday homestand, the Blackhawks went into a 0-6-2 skid. Yet, aside from a small, temporary dip, the uptick continued, resulting in 12 sellouts in the last half of the season, while dipping below 15,000 only once. That’s not to say the Panthers should expect to keep fans in the building if they also go 0-6-2 (they shouldn’t), it just helps to illustrate the gravity of holiday games.
Now that we have measured up the Panthers off the ice, let us turn our attention on the ice. Here are the stat lines for both teams.
(On slashed rows, the values are calculated in the following situations: All Situations/5-on-5 play)
2007-08 Chicago Blackhawks (15-15-2 – 32 points)
Standings: 12th in Western Conference / 4th in Central Division (3 points out of playoffs)
Goals For/60: 2.9 (T-9th) / 2.2 (T-13th)
Goals Against/60: 2.8 (T-17th) / 2.5 (T-21st)
Faceoff %: 51.5% (7th) / 49.0% (21st)
OSh%: 10.0% (13th) / 8.1% (T-19th)
OSv%: 89.4% (T-24th) / 90.6 (24th)
Score Adjusted Shot Attempts (Corsi): 50.8% (14th)
Offensive Zone Start %: 52.6% (10th)
4 OT Games (2-2 and shootout 1-1)
2014-15 Florida Panthers (15-9-8 – 38 points)
Standing: 10th in Eastern Conference / 6th in Atlantic Division (2 points out of playoffs)
Goals For/60: 2.1 (T-26th) / 2.1 (T-18th)
Goals Against/60: 2.4 (T-9th) / 1.9 (T-6th)
Faceoff %: 49.0% (20th) / 48.6% (T-19th)
OnIce Sh%: 6.7% (30th) / 6.6% (27th)
OnIce Sv%: 92.1% (9th) / 92.9% (8th)
Score Adjusted Shot Attempts (Corsi): 52.1% (12th)
Offensive Zone Start %: 49.4% (T-19th)
14 OT games (6-8 and shootout 5-4)
First, the Panthers record is in very good shape. They are 6 games above .500, possess 6 more points than the Blackhawks did after 32 games, and sit a similar amount of points out of the playoffs. This is a great place for the Panthers to be. Nobody is expecting this team to be world-beaters but they should be expected to hang around, make some noise, and do more than give their opponents a brisk workout. It certainly looks like they are accomplishing this. However, they have extended many more games into overtime than our measuring stick, 10 more than the 2007-08 Blackhawks to be exact. This is a bit of a mixed bag. It is good because the Panthers have been able to extract points from 6 more games as a result. It is not so good though because all of the extra hockey can and eventually will, wear down on the Panthers. They have currently played 54:50 worth of extra hockey. That’s almost an entire extra game. At this rate, they will play roughly 140:30 of extra time by the end of the season. That’s about 2 games and 1 period of extra hockey. Yes, pro athletes are in great shape nowadays. However, taking 82 games and turning it into the equivalent of 84 games is not a recipe for success. This might be helping the Panthers earn more points in losing efforts but if this team truly is to make the next step, they have to start putting teams away in regulation.
That being said, this Panthers squad is markedly better than in years past. What might be the catalyst of this change? Two words: goaltending and defense. The Panthers tandem of Roberto Luongo and Al Montoya in goal is keeping this team floating down the river. They sport a 92.1% On Ice Save Percentage, good for 9th in the league and have allowed just 2.4 goals per 60 minutes (9th in the league as well). Furthermore, they have a 92.9% On Ice Save Percentage during 5-on-5 play, the 8th best in the league and have allowed just 1.9 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, tied for the 6th best in the league with the current Chicago Blackhawks.
It is not just goaltending though. The Panthers are giving up 50.9 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, the 5th fewest in the league. In addition to Luongo and Montoya doing a good job of stopping the shots that are making it through, the team in front of them is doing a great job of suppressing the opportunities they do see. However, there is a glaring weakness: the Panthers ability to convert on opportunities. While the Panthers are generating 54.2 shot attempts per 60 minutes, a middling number at 19th in the league, their shooting percentages are downright awful. At 6.7%, the Panthers own the worst overall on-ice shooting percentage in the league. At 5-on-5, the Panthers on-ice shooting percentage is even worse at 6.6% but the team somehow finds themselves ahead of both Carolina and Columbus.
So, how does this Panthers squad stand next to the 2007-08 Chicago Blackhawks? First of all, both teams had decent possession numbers, with both teams in the upper half of the league in terms of score-adjusted shot attempts. The Blackhawks were also similarly good at suppressing shot attempts, giving up just 44 per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, making them the 4th best team in the league. They were even better when factoring in all situations, turning in the 2nd best effort in league, giving up 44.2 shot attempts per 60 minutes. The Panthers do not quite match that level of shot attempt suppression but do sit 10th in the league, giving up 52.4 shot attempts per 60 minutes. The biggest difference between these two teams though is how they achieved their results. Where the Panthers are strong on goaltending and weak on scoring, the Blackhawks were nearly the opposite. They sported middle of the road shooting numbers (10.0% in all situations, 8.1% at 5-on-5), and got some pretty lackluster goaltending from Nikolai Khabibulin and Patrick Lalime, with their save percentages firmly planted in the bottom third of the league. This is where these teams differ. Both teams achieved, or are achieving, some level of success they have not had in some time. They are simply did it in their own ways.
What does this all mean for our favored Cats? For their actual play, pretty much what we already knew: the Panthers need to cash in on more opportunities and put teams away without the aid of extra time. Roberto Luongo is certainly one of the best goalies in the league and the Panthers defense is among the league’s best at suppressing shots.
For what we can learn from the 2007-08 Blackhawks and how their season progressed, the important thing is this: beware of a losing streak coming. It was at this juncture of the season that the 2007-08 Blackhawks likely frittered away a playoff spot, going winless for 8 straight games at the end of December and into the beginning of January. It led to a 4-9-1 record in the month of January. That Blackhawks team missed playoffs by just three points. If they found a way to go just .500 in January, they would have made the playoffs.
The Panthers must find a way to avoid that same fate.
