In Elliotte Friedman’s 30 Thoughts this week, the Sportsnet writer drew a line between the Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers. Its an interesting connection that has not seen a ton of airtime as of yet, but is something interesting to think about.Friedman noted in particular interest from the Oilers in one Brandon Pirri (prior to his injury), and subsequently launched into a short discussion of Justin Schultz. Friedman later clarified that he did not mean to insinuate a Pirri for Schultz deal was in the works, but it got me thinking about whether it would be worthwhile to look into the defender.
My initial feeling, at face value, was no way. Schultz does not currently possess a good reputation around the league. He has failed to captivate attention since his controversial decision to spurn the Anaheim Ducks, the team that drafted him, out of college. This Jim Matheson article from December provides a synopsis of Schultz’s time in Edmonton, and the questions currently surrounding him. Most striking to me is the fact that he’s had good offensive flourishes at the pro level. Ultimately though, he has fallen flat and failed to distinguish himself, particularly as a top flight offensive force on the blueline.
Shot metrics support these assertions as well:
| CF% | CF%Rel | iCF/60 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 43.0 | -1.9 | 8.1 |
| 2013-14 | 41.7 | -2.7 | 6.4 |
| 2014-15 | 49.2 | +3.3 | 8.6 |
| 2015-16 | 47.1 | -0.1 | 7.1 |
As you can see, Schultz has rarely been a positive contributor, does not drive play, and has struggled to generate shots on his own. His iCF/60 would be good for fifth among Panther defensemen, a corps with no member north of 10 iCF/60. Hint: that’s not good.
However, I felt I did not have enough information to definitively say that Schultz is bad in total. The anecdotal evidence and macro-level stats paint an ugly picture, but one question stuck in my head: “Are things this way because he is a bad player, or are his numbers influenced by playing on a bad team?” I feel it is a valid question. Edmonton has been and continues to be one of the worst teams in the NHL. That would hurt anyone’s numbers, regardless of personal performance.
So, for fun, I ran a Warrior chart comparing Justin Schultz to Erik Gudbranson. He is currently the Panthers’ #4 defenseman. Though he plays a different style than Schultz, Gudbranson has had to weather some tough times this season. I felt stacking Schultz up against someone who has gone through their own bout of adversity was a good place to start. The result was not quite what I expected:
Schultz seems, by the numbers, to be a better #4 than Gudbranson. The big thing to me though is Schultz has better shot suppression metrics. He plays on a team that is objectively horrible at suppressing shots (5th worst in the league at 55.8 CA/60 score-adjusted), and has spent most of his time with Darnell Nurse, who while well-touted, is getting caved in this season (59.6 CA/60). The gap might be partially influenced by how much Gudbranson played with Willie Mitchell earlier in the season, who is objectively horrible at suppressing shots (56.3 CA/60). However, I still found this particularly striking.
There is one thing to keep in mind though. Schultz plays on a team with great offensive threats. That could be helping to balloon some of his offensive numbers. In spite of this, even if you are not convinced that Schultz is better than Gudbranson, there’s little doubt that he is better than Alex Petrovic or Steven Kampfer:
Plus all of the above defensemen are better than Willie Mitchell:
The overarching idea here is if the Panthers are going to shore up the depth on defense, I think they could actually do worse than Justin Schultz. The quesiton now becomes how much will he cost?
Young defensemen do not get traded very often. Seth Jones is the most recent example, however Schultz is not on his level and will not command a Ryan Johansen level return. Other than that, here are some more trades involving younger defensemen over the last 5-6 years:
- Marc Methot (CBJ) traded to Ottawa for Nick Foligno
- Matt Hunwick (BOS) traded to Colorado for Colby Cohen
- Andrew MacDonald (NYI) traded to Philadelphia for Matt Mangene, 2014 3rd round pick, and 2015 2nd round pick
- Erik Johnson, Jay McClement, conditional 1st round pick (STL) traded to Colorado for Kevin Shattenkirk, Chris Stewart, conditional 2nd round pick
Given the above, you’re probably looking at something between a roster player and picks + prospects for Justin Schultz straight up. My preference, if the Panthers were to pursue, would be to avoid dealing Pirri for him, and try to use a pick and a prospect instead. The Panthers struggle with shot generation as it is, permanently losing the team’s best shot generator for a defenseman with questions to answer seems foolish to me. If Pirri goes in any trade for Schultz, I would imagine it as part of a bigger trade, such as the Johnson/Shattenkirk swap. However, I am not a big fan of large, sweeping changes at the deadline, so I would avoid this kind of deal as well.
So to circle back to the question asked in the title: should the Panthers consider Justin Schultz? I would say yes, much to my surprise. It has to be for the right price though. It also depends on what else is out there. If the Panthers could add a defenseman like him without losing a roster player, it could be a worthwhile gamble. The reward would be a deeper blueline, something that is vital in a playoff run.
