We’re at the halfway point of 2015-16! 41 games are in the books, 41 games are left to play. Today, our staff offers thoughts on the Panthers season thus far, and a prediction for the second half.
AJ Bruhn (Managing Editor)
Impression of the First Half: Pretty Good… Pretty, Pretty, Pretty Good
Given that it ended with an 11-game win streak, I’d say the first half of the season was pretty darn good. The first half has had its highs, and its lows. This team was in 7th place, a game under .500 at Thanksgiving time after all. It seemed to me like the team was still trying to find itself at the start. Since Thanksgiving, however, it certainly looks like they have found themselves. The roster is being utilized better, and it is showing in the results. This is the kind of first half you can build something great from.
Best Forward: Aleksander Barkov
The first half of 2015-16 saw a glimpse of what Barkov could look like when he has realized his full potential. He started hot out of the gate with six points in seven games prior to missing a month with a broken hand. Since coming back from injury, he has 20 points in 24 games. That is very nice. In fact, he has scored nine goals in those 24 games, which is more than the 8 goals he scored during his entire rookie season (54 games). I don’t know about you, but it certainly seems to me like he has turned the corner towards stardom.
Best Defenseman: Aaron Ekblad
There has not been a defenseman on this team who has been more consistently solid. He leads all defensemen with 19 points, equal to his age. He’s got the best score adjusted CF% of any defenseman at 52.7, and the best raw CA60 of any defenseman at 45.6. You can see the confidence in his game. He regularly jumps up into the play, creating havoc and confusion for opposing defenses. He is able to exit his own end efficently and create chances for his forwards heading down the ice. People like to talk a lot about the “sophomore slump”, but there appears to be no such thing for Aaron Ekblad. The fact he is doing this all at 19 years of age is all the more impressive. You’ll need a Geiger Counter to measure this kid’s potential.
Best Play: Barkov v. Markstrom in the Shootout (12/20/15)
This move was so damn filthy! Let’s watch it again:
Best Win: 12/29/15 vs. Montreal Canadiens
The gravity of this win has stuck with me over the last week and a half. The fact the Panthers came out of such a big game, a closely contested one, with a regulation win was huge. The fact that the reward was first place to end 2015 added some emotional weight. Those are the kinds of games that the Panthers lost in recent years. They are also the kind of games great teams find a way to win. We will see how the rest of the season plays out, but I really feel like this could be the game people point back to and say, “This is when the Florida Panthers arrived.”
Biggest Surprise: First Place Panthers
I believe in the Panthers. I had them in the playoffs before the season began. I knew they could be a good team that could give an opponent a hard time on any given night. However, I would be a liar if I said I thought they would be a first place team at the halfway point of the season. Some of that is teams like Montreal and Tampa Bay underperforming, and they are. A lot of it is the recent hot streak though. There is certainly some luck that is going into this streak, but I feel you need to have more than just luck to extend a winning streak this long. We are not likely to get something like this streak again once it ends, so enjoy every moment of it!
Prediction for the Second Half: Staying the Course
I am sticking to my pre-season prediction of a 102 point finish for the Panthers. However, whether that will be a first place finish or not will be up to the other teams in the Atlantic. I had it as a second place finish, presumably behind the Montreal Canadiens. We will see how Carey Price is feeling when he comes back.
I do not think 102 points is an unrealistic mark for the Panthers to reach at this point. They would have to win at a .585 clip the rest of the way to do it. That is just under what the Panthers have done overall with Gerard Gallant behind the bench (.589). For those not as bullish as I, a more conservative estimation might be 99 points, which would be attainable playing at the pre-streak rate under Gallant (.549). For the pessimists among us, a .500 Panthers club down the stretch would pot 95 points on the season. That would be a close shave, but could be good enough on its own to make the Playoffs.
At the end of the day, I reasonably feel the Panthers are a playoff team.
Angie S. (Staff Writer)
Impression of the First Half: Pretty much a constant swing between “THIS IS SO MUCH FUN” and “oh god this can’t last OH GOD”
I’ve been encouraged by some of the changes made after the five game winning streak (I highly recommend Dmitri Filipovic’s piece on the Panthers) but I also know the current wild success has been a lot of luck. This isn’t actually the best team in the Atlantic — but they’re a really good one and if they can figure out how to generate shots on a more consistent basis, we all know they’re going to be incredible.
Best Forward: Aleksander Barkov
End of discussion. Huberdeau has been a close second, but Barkov is arguably a top ten center in the league already. He is so good and he’s still getting better. How lucky are we that we get to watch him?
Best Defenseman: Aaron Ekblad
This is also not up for discussion and shouldn’t need any evidence. Kulikov and Campbell tied in second, Gudbranson a distant fourth (but still a solid fourth).
Best Play: Huber-love and Barkov
For me, it’s like a twenty way tie between every one of Huberdeau’s assists this year. Barkov’s shootout goal against Vancouver was obviously one of the most impressive displays of skill I’ve ever seen, but Huberdeau’s playmaking this year has been out of this world. If I have to pick one, I’m going to go with the OT winner against Detroit. That’s the kind of 3 on 3 play Florida needs to be bringing more often, even if we all love seeing what Barkov is going to pull out of his bag of tricks in the shootout.
Best Win: Emotionally, 12/15/15 against the Islanders, even though it wasn’t actually a good game
It was the start of this crazy, wonderful magical streak and it was sheer luck and the goal scorers were Smith, Barkov, Ekblad, Trocheck, and Huberdeau (short handed!) — and the number of times I have watched that last one while cackling endlessly is a little embarrassing, but whatever. Realistically: 11/29 in Detroit. That OT winner was great and the only mistake the team made was the only mistake Sasha “Perfect Angel” Barkov has ever made in his life, but it didn’t cost them the game. They didn’t crumble. The Panthers teams of days gone by would have.
Biggest Surprise: Erik Gudbranson
Vince Trocheck, extremely competent 2C and goal scorer, is not a surprise, so let’s go with Gudbranson’s improvement now that he’s been moved away from Mitchell. He’s finally becoming a player I can stomach seeing in Florida’s top four, which is more than I’d hoped for over the last couple of seasons, and it’s been great to watch. As long as he’s got a partner who can exit the zone, he’s a real solid asset on the back end.
Prediction for the Second Half: Playoff Berth, Playoff Series Win
Florida’s winning streak eventually comes to an end, Barkov scores #20at20, Huberdeau’s shooting percentage regresses back to something closer to normal and everyone starts talking about what a great #sniper he is. Those are boring ones, let’s go with an interesting one: Florida makes the second round of the playoffs. (Does this count as a second half prediction, or are the playoffs the third half? How does math work?)
Tom Krulikowski (WhyHockey)
Impression of the First Half: Up and Down
While the potential talent is starting to shine through and pull team up the standings (along with the continue elite play from Jagr and Luongo), there is still enough to be concerned about.
Scoring is still an issue as the bottom 6 has struggled to score (again). Furthermore, player usage has improved but some of the biggest red flags have not been addressed. With a new two year deal, will Gallant continue to improve steadily or are we stuck with the second PP unit starting majority of man advantages.
This team is in a great position but are an injury, bad bounce, bad coaching move away from being on the outside looking in. This is the beginning, so patience is still required.
Best Forward: Aleksander Barkov
Your best players need to be your best players. Barkov has done it in every zone, in every situation despite missing time for injury. Boring pick, for sure, but remember that there are a ton of Cats fans who would put Derek MacKenzie as best forward. And maybe the minority owner too…
Non-Barkov pick: Reilly Smith. Very impressed with his overall play. He slides up and down the lineup well and gels with the personality of the team.
Best Defenseman: Aaron Ekblad
Yada yada best players yada yada best players. Rinse, repeat. If I had a Norris vote, he’d get top 3 for me. Other than Karlsson, which D in the East has been better? No sophomore slump. Other than Lu, Ek has been best player.
Non-Ekblad pick: Dmitry Kulikov. Kulikov’s play will either increase his trade value or force Tallon to trade another D for scoring. Kulikov has been that impactful on the ice. As our D corps changes, Kulikov will get better partners and should see the counting stats jump considerably.
Best Play: Jagr ties the game (4-4) vs. NY Rangers (11/21/15)
39 seconds after Barkov scores. Everyone on the ice contributes, lot of board battles and puck protection, a little luck, and JAGR. What more could you want?
Best Win: Montreal, at home
Recent, sure. But the win was huge for the fanbase as finally Montreal didn’t get home treatment in Florida. So many reasons to pick it. I doubt its not in every Panthers fan top 3 for the year.
Biggest Surprise: Shawn Thornton still plays NHL games.
No really, I’m floored.
Prediction for the Second Half: Hard fought loss in the 2nd round of the playoffs
Yeah, playoff series win baby! Don’t get too excited, playoff success and recent extensions of Tallon/Gallant could mean expiring UFAs return to the team, which would be a mistake.
Matt O’Brien (WhyHockey)
Impression of the First Half: Wild Ride
The Panthers have been in the hunt for a playoff spot all season, but it was looking dim in November. They always say that teams that are in playoff position by American Thanksgiving typically go on to make the postseason. By that point, the Panthers were 5 points out of the final Wild Card spot. A five game winless streak at the end of October into November had many of us wondering if this would be another typical year for the Panthers. Their play was wildly inconsistent, and we continued to see them struggle to win games they should or needed to.
Once December arrived, however, the Panthers flipped the switch. I fully believe that the team we have seen over the course of the last month and a half is who the Panthers really are. While the winning streak will certainly come to an end at some point, the longer they can keep it rolling the more separation they will make for themselves in the crowded Atlantic Division. Likewise, margin for error will continue to grow as the season continues to roll on.
Best Forward: Aleksander Barkov
No question. This kid has been lights out this year and is really coming into his own as one of the best two-way forwards in the league. He has been dominant in most games this year, and the team really missed him when he was out with injury. Since returning, Barkov has registered 20 points in the ensuing 24 games, including 8 goals. He has been held off the scoresheet completely in only 10 of those games. He is currently 3rd on the team in points with 26 in just 31 total games. If I have to pick someone who is not Barkov, I have to say Huberdeau, who has regained his rookie form and is developing into one of the most dangerous playmakers in the league of late.
Best Defenseman: Aaron Ekblad
Again, no question here. The 19 year old Defenseman has picked up right where he left off after his rookie season. His defensive play has been stellar all year, completely shutting down opponents. What’s remarkable is the relative ease with which he plays the game. He rarely makes a mistake, and if he does, he more than makes up for it. While it did take him a little bit of time this season to regain his offensive form, he has been lights out lately. He has 9 of his 19 points since the beginning of December. If I was asked to pick another aside from Ekblad, it would have to Kulikov. He has continued to show major strides in his development, becoming a very responsible defender who can be dangerous offensively as well. I would like to see him be able to put up a few more points here and there, but there is little room for complaints the way he has been playing this year.
Best Win: 5-1 victory over the Devils on December 17th
It was the second win in the current 10-game win streak, and the second game in a row where the Panthers scored 5 goals. They completely dominated the Devils, paying them back for a bad loss a few weeks prior. While the conversation has shifted from hoping for a Wild Card playoff spot to hoping for a Divisional spot (maybe even a divisional championship!), this game was massive for the Panthers playoff hopes. It tied them with the Devils for the final Wild Card spot, and put them within reach of Boston and Detroit in the division. This win, coupled with the shutout of the Hurricanes the following night, did wonders for the Panthers confidence, which has sprung the current incredible win streak.
Best Play: The second goal of the game against the New Jersey Devils on 12/17 by Dmitry Kulikov
This play was the result of an amazing shift. As has been typical this season, the Barkov line was dominating possession, working the puck around the offensive zone. The puck came out high to Brian Campbell on the blueline, who then threaded the puck between two Devils to hit Jagr in the high slot. Jagr, with a defender bearing down on him, protects the puck and finds Kulikov creeping in from the blueline. Kulikov takes a few strides towards the net and lets go a laser from the face-off dot to Schneider’s left, banking it off the far post and in. This play was a total effort from all five players on the ice, culminating in an important goal in the game. The Panthers need everyone to contribute, and on this play, all five guys on the ice were involved in making that goal possible.
(Editor’s Note: You can view parts of this shift starting at :18 of the video below)
Biggest Surprise: Al Montoya
The Big Cubano has rebounded nicely this year. After struggling last season, the Panthers are comfortable playing Montoya to give Luongo a rest every once in awhile. And why not? With a 6-1-1 record, a .938 save percentage and 1.69 GAA, Montoya has given the Panthers confidence Montoya has appeared in nine games this season. When the team doesn’t have to worry about who tends the net behind them, they can focus more on playing their game. Ask any team in the league and they would say that having a solid goaltending tandem is a major key to success.
Prediction for the 2nd Half: Playoff Team
The Panthers enter the second half of the season as the hottest team in the league. They have all four lines rolling lately, and have seem to found chemistry throughout the lineup. Keep in mind that for the majority of the two winning streaks the Panthers have had this season have been without Nick Bjugstad. He is now back in the lineup and hopefully remains healthy for the rest of the season. As I said above, I believe that the Panthers we have seen since the beginning of December are who they really are.
It is important to proceed with caution, however, we have seen with Montreal how quickly a team can go from first, to middle, and potentially to the bottom of this crazy Atlantic division. The Panthers have done themselves a great favor in creating some separation to the pack, which allows for a little more margin of error in the second half of the season. The Panthers just have to avoid going on a long stretch of losing games and they should be welcomed back into the postseason this year. I expect the play of Barkov, Huberdeau and Ekblad to continue to rise expotentially. As these youngsters come into their own, they should be able to put this team on their collective backs and carry them to where they want to go.
Whether or not it comes with a divisional championship, the 2015-16 Florida Panthers are no doubt a playoff-caliber team.
