So, the Panthers are 5-5-3 in their last 13 games. That seems very mediocre when placed against the backdrop of a season with three win streaks of five or more games, including a 12 gamer. The frustration has been showing lately on Twitter. There have been plenty of folks derriding the Panthers effort and play of late. I have even seen some panicked talk about losing first place or even the possibility of falling out of the playoffs.
So I am here to say relax, breathe, and calm down. First place is not a big deal, and the Panthers are going to be just fine.
Let us start with a discussion of the value of first place. I will concede that, yes, the division winner gets a more favorable matchup. First place division teams have won 36 of 56 first round series since 2005-06, and have won 6 of 8 since the playoff format changed for the 2014 playoffs, going 3-1 in each 2014 and 2015. If the Panthers are to make it, we naturally want them to have the best shot possible. However, it does not spell doom if the Panthers do not get it. For example, the 3rd place division team has also won 6 of 8 series since the playoff format change. I would expect that to even out over the long run, as the #2 and #3 teams in a division should be closer to each other in talent level. Even then, a 2/3 series should still be winnable for this team.
My overarching point on the above is that playoff hockey is rife with wild turns and unpredictability. While getting a more favorable matchup may help increase the winning odds, an easier road is not always what’s best for development. Besides, this team and this young core has not even been in a playoff series. It is best to focus just on getting there, and worrying only about what comes. Keep the approach simple, no extra pressure needed.
Moving on, if you feel the Panthers are underachieving, ask yourself one question: at the beginning of the season, did you really, truly think the Panthers were even going to challenge for first place this season, let alone hold it for two-plus months? If you said yes, you are either an extremely optimistic person, or a liar. This team may be lulling a bit of late, but you are fooling yourself if you think this team has become mediocre. The 1996 run to the Cup Final aside, things have never been better for the Panthers, ever.
This team is the fastest to 80 points in franchise history. They did so in 63 games, faster than the 1999-2000 Panthers, who got to 80 points in 66 games. The 2015-16 Panthers also tied the 1996-97 Panthers for slowest to 20 losses, at 64 games. Their underlying numbers are improving as well. Their CF% has been ticking back up lately, it had crashed a bit following its high-point during January:
They’re starting to generate more shots too:
They’re also trending back down on shots conceded:
Graphs from Corsica.hockey
Remember, these numbers include only a couple games with the new acquisitions. These numbers will change as the Panthers come down the stretch, hopefully for the better. Calling this team mediocre would be inapproriate at this time.
Furthermore, they are still on pace for 100 points, and have a playoff expectancy of 97%. See the below graphs from Hockey-Viz:
Now, let us do a little exercise to further illustrate how secure the Panthers position is right now. Micah Blake McCurdy has the cut off line at 93.6 points. From that, let’s assume it rounds up to 94 points. That is the mark that gets you in the playoffs. The Panthers need only play .389 hockey over the final 18 games (including tonight) in order to each that mark. That can be reached with a record of 5-9-4. The Panthers would have to perform worse than that in order to miss the playoffs.
By comparison, the Panthers are currently on pace for around 100-101 points. They would reach 101 if they perform at the .586 clip they have under Gerard Gallant. In short, the Panthers are not missing the playoffs unless something extraordinary happens, like the entire team collectively forgetting how to play hockey.
So, let’s simmer down, and breathe. The Panthers are going to be fine. Instead, take in this whole process, because this is a truly special time. A young core is growing before us and, like a child, will be grown before you know it. Cherish the process, enjoy the process, and respect what we have now. It will help make what comes next even more enjoyable.
