Matthew O’Brien of Whyhockey begins a 3-part look at the Florida Panthers, their strengths, weaknesses, and projections.
Overview
’14-’15
The 2014-’15 Panthers season was one of the better campaigns the franchise has enjoyed since entering the league in 1993, despite missing the playoffs yet again. They improved 25 points in the standings, more than any other team, and the hype for the future is finally being taken seriously. With another year of experience under the belts of Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad, et al. it’s only a matter of time before the Panthers become a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. The Blueprint laid out by Dale Tallon five years ago is starting to take shape and pay dividends.
The turning point of last season came in February when Tallon acquired Jaromir Jagr from the Devils in exchange for two draft picks. Many pundits criticized the move when it first happened. They said Jagr was too old to help the Panthers push for the playoffs and the Panthers were too far away from the playoffs for Jagr’s liking, many believing he would head for a legitimate contender once the season ended. But when Jagr was inserted into the lineup he gelled instantly with his young linemates Huberdeau and Barkov, creating a mutually beneficial environment. Jagr taught the young stars what it takes to score goals in this league, while Barkov’s and Huberdeau’s youthful exuberance helped reignite the flame in Jagr’s game. They formed one of the hottest lines in the league to end the season and should start the next campaign intact, providing a much needed jump to what was a miserable offense last season.
Not much else has changed in the Panthers lineup for next season, and for good reason. Their mix of youth and experience on the blueline helped them climb from one of the worst defenses in the league in previous years to middle of the league and should only be improved next year as Ekblad, Petrovic, Gudbranson, and Kulikov, continue to develop into bona fide NHL defensemen. They have all of the skill waiting in the wings (and specifically on the wings) necessary to be successful, at this point it’s just a matter of time before they break out and take the league by storm.
The Draft
The Panthers walked off the floor on the 27th of June making 8 selections over the course of 7 rounds, taking at least one prospect in every round except the 2nd. They made headlines right away by selecting what could turn out to be the steal of the first round at pick 11 in Lawson Crouse of the Kingston Frontenacs. Crouse is a big but skilled forward that will administer a much needed power game in the Panthers top 9 in the future. After sitting idle through the second round, the Panthers held two third round picks where they nabbed goalie Samuel Montembault and defenseman Thomas Schemitsch. When Denis Malgin was still on the board at pick 102, Tallon wasted no time calling the small Suisse forward’s name. While undersized, Malgin brings top-end offensive skill into the Panthers system if and when he decides to move across the Atlantic.
From the fifth round on, the Panthers selected players with a much longer development curves than their previous four picks, most of which will be attending college either next year or the year after. Karch Bachman, selected at 132 overall, is a speedy forward from Culver Academy who will be attending the University of Miami in 2016 after a year with Green Bay of the USHL. Chris Wilkie, taken in the sixth round, will play next year at the University of North Dakota after two full seasons with the Tri-City Storm of the USHL. Wilike improved from 17 goals and 36 points in ’13-’14 to 35 goals and 55 points the next season. Scoring is one major area the Panthers must improve in down the road, and, though a long shot, Wilkie may be able to help in that department if he continues to develop his scoring touch.
The Panthers picked up two more players in the seventh round, forward Patrick Shea, who will be attending the University of Maine this season and goalie Ryan Bednard who will play one year in the USHL before attending Bowling Green State University the following year. While most of Florida’s picks came in the later round, the Panthers still got a substantial haul and a lot of talented players to re-stock the cupboards that will soon be much emptier.
Free Agent Period
For the first time in a few years, the big news regarding the Panthers in Free Agency did not revolve around who they signed but rather who they let go. Since 2011, Tallon has signed a slew of free agents that have called South Florida home for several years. They were all, for the most part, signed to bloated contracts for more term and money than the players were worth. This summer, the Panthers are finally rid of the contracts for Tomas Kopecky, Scottie Upshall, and Brad Boyes (due to buyout), marking the end of the era of mediocrity. No longer do the Panthers need underproducing players signed to large contracts to be “competitive” and be compliant with the salary floor.
Moving away from the past, the Panthers can now focus on the bright future ahead of them. The Panthers have so much talent stocked up in their system, amassed through years of shrewd trades and drafting, that they can finally afford to open the cupboard and see what they have. It is an exciting time to be a Panthers fan, to say the least.
Strengths
Centers
The Panthers are rife with centers of either handedness, which should make them a difficult team to matchup against in the faceoff dot. At the NHL level they have young stars Aleksander Barkov (Left) and Nick Bjugstad (Right), along with veterans Derek Mackenzie and Dave Bolland (left and right, respectively). While these four will presumably be the starting centers in the NHL next year, a strong case could be made for Vincent Trocheck (right) to assume the role as third line center. Regardless of where they all end up, clearly the Panthers have enough centers of either handedness to have the advantage on any faceoff despite its location.
Building from the Center Out
| Player | SCF% | iSC | FF% | iFF | ZSO% | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov | 54.51% | 92 | 51.80% | 125 | 47.56% | 46.99% |
| Nick Bjugstad | 52.10% | 67 | 53.39% | 106 | 55.46% | 48.17% |
| Vincent Trocheck | 54.23% | 140 | 50.86% | 198 | 52.81% | 46.49% |
*All stats provided by War on Ice*
Barkov, Bjugstad and Trocheck controlled the majority of Scoring and Fenwick chances this past season, which bodes well for future results. Once the three young centers finish maturing physically and get a few more years under their belts, the faceoff percentages should find their way steadily over 50%. The numbers and eye test point to the Panthers forwards dominating the play from the middle of the ice out.
Fortunately for the Panthers, their top two centers should be around for a long time, as NHL caliber talent at that position gets harder to find as we move down the depth chart. Of their center prospects, only two instill confidence to become true NHL centers, one of either handedness. Kyle Rau is a left-handed center that has a real shot at cracking the roster on the big club this year. However, if he does, it will most likely not be at his natural position. The good news here is that he is used to playing on Bjugstad’s wing, which he did for a few years at the University of Minnesota. If Rau is able to hone his faceoff skills to be halfway decent, he could form a formidable duo with Bjugstad on the second line that could win faceoffs on the forehand on either side of the ice. When Brad Boyes was on Barkov’s line last year, the Panthers used a similar tag-team formula for faceoffs.
Denis Malgin, the 4th round selection of the Panthers this past draft, is the best right handed center in the system not currently with the big club. With his small stature, though, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that he would be better suited on the wing in the NHL. After that, the stable of centers consists largely of NHL hopefuls with an outside chance of making it. Right handers Corbin Knight and Patrick Shea, along with lefties Chase Balisy, Steven Hodges, and Matt Buckles round out the Panthers centers-in-waiting but none project to be top 6 NHLers.
Defense
If the old mantra “defense wins championships” rings true, there could be at least one Stanley Cup parade coming to Fort Lauderdale in the near future. The Panthers possibly have the strongest group of defensemen in their organization than any other league-wide. We have already seen them rise from one of the worst defensive teams to consistently solid in their own end. And that will only continue to improve as time goes on.
The Cats currently have 17 defensemen in the fold with a nice mixture of left- (10) and right- (7) handers. The three oldest defensemen (and presumably the three defensemen with the shortest tenure left with the Panthers) are all left-handed in Brian Campbell, Dmitry Kulikov and Willie Mitchell. But that shouldn’t be a problem with lefties Michael Matheson, Jonathan Racine and Ian McCoshen waiting to step in and assume their spots. Matheson should start the season in the AHL but a midseason call-up is not out of the question. Especially if one of the D above him were to be injured or traded. McCoshen is returning for another season at Boston College, hoping to capture an elusive National Championship before making the jump to the pros. Both are high quality prospects projected to be top four NHL defensemen. Racine is more of a question mark, though there’s little doubt that Tallon enjoys his physical style of play, and could be a replacement down the road for the gritty Willie Mitchell.
Click to Enlarge. Source: War on Ice
Behind them on the left side sit intriguing college prospects Michael Downing and Ed Wittchow, who, while not projected to put up points even in the NCAA, are steady defensive-defensemen with solid upside. Rounding out the list of left-handed defensemen are Dylan Olsen and Ben Gallacher. Olsen played parts of two seasons with the Panthers but obviously did not impress enough to stick around, as he was demoted to the AHL last season and likely has seen the last of the NHL in this organization. Gallacher is a longshot to make the NHL and will likely be a career-AHLer at best, considering the talent ahead of him.
While several teams (like Detroit) were clamoring for the ever elusive Right Handed Defenseman around the trade deadline last year, the Panthers are stocked to the brim with them. Four of the seven defensemen that ended the year with Panthers last year were right handed and all will be returning next year. Aaron Ekblad is obviously the best of the bunch and hopefully will be around for a long time. He is truly a special player and while you never want to have the first overall pick, the Panthers sure picked a great year to have it. Ekblad’s inaugural campaign was simply phenomenal, culminating in the Calder Trophy awarded to the league’s best rookie.
Another young right-handed defensemen, Erik Gudbranson is hoping to take his game to the next level this year. He has had a slow but steady rise in his development over the last few seasons and will eclipse the oft-cited 300 game mark in the ’15-’16 season. For those that don’t know, 300 games marks the point in time when you can realistically project the ability and development of defensive prospects. While some are unhappy with Gudbranson’s development through the years, his role and the expectations set upon him changed with the drafting of Ekblad. Widely believed to be a top-pair NHL defenseman in his draft year, he no longer has to fill those shoes. He simply has to be an above-average second pair D. With the huge strides he made last season in his skating and footwork, and another summer working with skating coach Paul Vincent, it’s reasonable to expect him to become just that.
Alex Petrovic and Steven Kampfer split time between the Rampage and the Panthers last season and made the decision tough for coaches and management as to who should be the sixth D moving forward. They each have their strengths: Kampfer is an excellent puck-mover and pushes play up ice quickly, often creating and joining rushes using his speed and has the wherewithal to play in his own zone effectively as well. Petrovic, on the other hand, is a much more physically imposing defender, standing at 6’4 and a shade over 200 lbs, who plays with an edge and is never shy about sticking up for his teammates. He’s effective on the breakout and rarely misses on the all-important first pass. Though slightly lacking in the speed department, Petrovic is still a clean skater who can join the rush, but at the professional level plays more of a smart, positionally sound game. Adding confidence through a full year of health and experience last season could see Petrovic get back to his big assist totals from junior.
When it comes down to it, Petrovic is three years younger than Kampfer and still has time to develop and reach his full potential. He has shown he can handle the AHL for parts of three seasons and impressed during his NHL call-ups. It would be better for Petrovic and the organization to allow him full-time NHL minutes this year to see how he progresses, while keeping Kampfer on the roster as the 7th defenseman as insurance. Though don’t expect the 7th defender to spend too much time consecutively in the press box. Between injuries and Kampfer’s skill level, he will get his ice time.
Further down the RHD column of the depth chart sit Mackenzie Weegar, Josh Brown, and recently drafted Thomas Schemitsch. Weegar is a small, offensive-defenseman who enjoyed a very good junior career with Halifax but has, at times, struggled to adjust to the pro game. Last season he began the year with the Rampage but found himself demoted to Cincinnati of the ECHL. It’s much too early to give up on him and that shouldn’t be a worry, as it is well known that Tallon is infatuated with his talent, so much so that he almost made the NHL out of camp last season and has been tagged as a powerplay QB in the future.
Josh Brown just wrapped up his junior career with the Oshawa Generals by captaining the squad to an OHL and Memorial Cup Championship. He is a shut-down, stay at home defensemen with very little offensive upside. Brown possesses size and a good hockey IQ, plus captaining a Memorial Cup team doesn’t hurt either. He should be given time in the AHL next year to continue his development, but it is unlikely he makes it to the big time with the amount of quality defenders ahead of him.
Last but not least, Thomas Schemitsch rounds out the incredibly deep and talented defensive stable the Panthers have built up over the last five years. Schemitsch is a hit-or-miss prospect taken in the third round of the 2015 Draft that possesses two-way upside. While his skating needs some work, his positioning and stick-checking ability are solid, as are his offensive skills. He also needs to develop more of a physical edge if he expects to make the NHL. He will be returning to the OHL barring an incredible training camp.
This concludes Part 1 of “Under the Scope”. Come back tomorrow for Part 2 as we discuss Florida’s weaknesses and try to project the team for next season.
Whyhockey can be reached for contact on Twitter.
