Game Day Post (1/11/2015): Florida Panthers (19-11-9) @ Edmonton Oilers (10-23-9)

Summary:

The Panthers continue their ride on the Western Canada Express with feel-good vibes. They’re winners of two straight games and have collected 6 of 8 possible points so far on their season longest 6 game road trip. Tonight’s stop: Edmonton. Here the Panthers face off with a lackluster team that they have failed to beat in several years. Which streak will fall, the Panthers’ current win streak, or the Oilers’ win streak over the Panthers? On to the game!

Know Your Enemy:

Panthers All-Time Record v. Edmonton: 8-9-4 with 3 ties
All-Time Record v. Edmonton on Road: 3-7-0 with 1 tie
2013-14 Season Record v. Edmonton: 0-1-1
Last Game: 11/21/13 @ Rexall Place (Edmonton, AB), Panthers lost 4-1
The NHL’s southern-most team, our Florida Panthers, has made the long trek to face the NHL’s northern-most team, the Edmonton Oilers, for their first meeting this season. The Panthers find their prey in an ill manner, with their playoff hopes as cold as the snowy tundra of Edmonton itself. The Oilers sit in the desolation of last place in the league, the current frontrunner to nab Connor McDavid at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft (to be held at the BB&T Center). They have the league’s 6th worst rating in score-adjusted shot attempts at 47.9% and the league’s second worst goal differential at -46. The Oilers have just nine players on their roster who have 10 or more points. Even the starved-for-goals Panthers have 12 players with 10 or more points on their roster. Their top line of Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jordan Eberle have accounted for 32 of 95 goals scored by the Oilers, a third of the team’s offensive output. The news isn’t much better in net. Both Viktor Fasth and Ben Scrivens are turning in save percentages under 90%, a horrid effort. Even special teams cannot offer any sunshine for this team, as both their power play and their penalty kill sit firmly in the bottom third of the league. The only real bright spot is that top line with Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle. Now, all of that being said, know that this team beat the Chicago Blackhawks, one of the best teams in the league, in their last game. The Blackhawks held Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle scoreless, but Taylor Hall had the empty net goal and an assist, in a 5-2 losing effort. The Oilers have also collected the vast majority of their few wins against Eastern Conference opponents. As with any NHL team, the Oilers can beat any opponent on any given night, given the right conditions. However, the numbers suggest that is unlikely.

The Rundown:

Panthers Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Nick Bjugstad (14)
Assists: Aaron Ekblad (18)
Points: Nick Bjugstad (24)
Shot Attempt (Corsi) Relative: Sean Bergenheim (+6.3%)
Scoring Chances Relative: Aleksander Barkov (+10.4%)
Power Play: 13.6% (29th)
Penalty Kill: 81.3% (15th)

Oilers Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Taylor Hall & Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11)
Assists: Taylor Hall (16)
Points: Taylor Hall (27)
Shot Attempt (Corsi) Relative: Jeff Petry (+3.8%)
Scoring Chances Relative: Jordan Eberle (+4.9%)
Power Play: 13.7% (28th)
Penalty Kill: 78.2% (25th)

*Shot Attempts (Corsi) and Scoring Chances calculated at 5v5, having played at least one half of team’s games.

The Hat Trick:

1. Huby Hot Paws: The story of the day is the ignition of Jonathan Huberdeau. He has 5 points (3 goals, 2 assists) through the first two games in Western Canada. This is his best performance in consecutive games ever in his career. His last best mark was 4 points, achieved when he scored a goal and 3 assists combined against the Buffalo Sabres on March 28, 2013 and the New Jersey Devils on March 30, 2013, both at home. After a rough sophomore term in 2013-14, Huberdeau has quietly been claiming back the game he lost after his award-winning rookie season. This season, he is scoring at his highest rate ever at full strength, 2.1 points per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. The Panthers are also grabbing 53.6% of scoring chances when he is on the ice, by far the highest mark of his career. Although Huberdeau still carries some bad habits from his Junior hockey days, those are things that can be worked on and fixed. The good news is that his natural prowess for offense is starting to come back and that is something that cannot be taught quite like his bad habits. Huberdeau is just 6 points back of his point total for last season and in 33 fewer games. It is shaping up to be a bounce back, career year for the young Panther near the halfway point of the season.

2. Flash Fun Fact: Tomas Fleischmann had the game winning goal in Friday night’s 6-5 barnburning win. Perhaps it is a sign of thing to come. In 7 career games against the Edmonton Oilers, he has three goals and three assists. Furthermore, since the beginning of December, Flash is averaging 2.8 points per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play, which is second best on the team. Has Flash finally slayed the snake that bit him? As an aside, here are other Panthers with strong numbers against the Oilers: Brad Boyes (9 goals, 11 assists – 20 points), Dave Bolland (6 goals, 7 assists – 13 points), Jussi Jokinen (5 goals, 8 assists – 13 points), and Brian Campbell (1 goal, 9 assists – 10 points).

3. Dry Well: The Panthers, however, are facing a team that they have had scant luck against. The Panthers have collected just three wins against the Oilers over the last 14 games. Their last victory against Edmonton came on December 11, 2008, when they shutout the Oilers 2-0 on home ice. The Panthers have lost five games in a row against the Oilers since that win. Even worse, the Panthers last win at Rexall Place was on March 8, 2002, when the Panthers won a high scoring affair 5-4, with three point nights from Ivan Novoseltsev and Niklas Hagman, and a 40 save performance from Roberto Luongo. With how well the Panthers have played, they may well be due for a change of fortune.

Projected Lineup:

Florida Panthers

D1: Campbell | Ekblad
D2: Mitchell | Gudbranson
D3: O’Brien | Olsen

SG: Luongo
BG: Montoya

Edmonton Oilers

D1: Ference | Petry
D2: Klefblom | Schultz
D3: Nikitin | Fayne

SG: Scrivens
BG: Fasth

Courtesy of Daily Faceoff (Accurate as of 10:00 am)

Closing Thoughts:

The Panthers may have attendance issues but at least we don’t throw jerseys on the ice like petulant brats. We only throw rats.

AJ can be reached for contact on Twitter .