Summary:
The homestand started with a thud Monday night, as the Wild dispatched the Panthers 4-1. Tonight, the Hurricanes hit South Florida and the Panthers will be looking to rebound from their Monday night malaise. However, they will have to do it without the services of Scottie Upshall (who is injured) and Derek MacKenzie (out with the flu). That means the return of Vincent Trocheck to the lineup, after being a scratch against the Wild. How will the Panthers bounce back? On to the game!
Know Your Enemy:
Panthers All-Time Record v. Carolina: 41-43-11 with 11 ties
2013-14 Season Record v. Carolina: 0-3-0
Last Game: 3/27/14 @ BB&T Center, Panthers lost 3-0
The Hurricanes are a team very much like the Panthers: a young team with decent possession numbers and low combined shot/save percentage (PDO). They get 50.2% of shot attempts (Corsi) when adjusted for score, and a 97.8% PDO (combined percentage). Similarly, the Hurricanes also find themselves in 7th place of the Metro division. However, the big difference is Carolina’s goaltending. They possess the 4th worst on ice save percentage at 5 on 5 with a 90.3% (Panthers are 3rd best with a 93.9%). If the Panthers are to beat the Hurricanes tonight, they will need to lean on Carolina’s shaky goaltending.
The Rundown:
Hurricane Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Jiri Tlusty (8)
Assists: Riley Nash (11)
Points: Riley Nash (15)
Shot Attempts (Corsi) Rel: Chris Terry (+7.0%)
Power Play: 20.0% (T-10th)
Penalty Kill: 81.7% (15th)
Panther Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Nick Bjugstad (7)
Assists: Jussi Jokinen (10)
Points: Jussi Jokinen (12)
Shot Attempts (Corsi) Rel: Brian Campbell (+6.5%)
Power Play: 15.4% (23rd)
Penalty Kill: 78.7% (20th)
*Corsi Relative calculated at 5v5, having played at least one half of team’s games.
The Hat Trick:
1. It is still early but the Panthers currently have the misfortune of owning the second worst home record in the league at 3-4-1. Why are the Panthers struggling at home? It is not strictly a matter of possession. The Panthers are getting 50.8% of Shot Attempts (Corsi) at 5 on 5, so while they are not dominating, the opposite is also true. This is actually a lot better than the Panthers road numbers, where they post a 4-2-5 record, yet, grab 46.3% of Shot Attempts. Their combined on-ice save/shot percentage (PDO) shows some differences. The Panthers are posting a 100.1% on the road, and a 97.7% at home. This stat tends to regress to (or settle towards) 100% over the long term, so Panther fans can reasonably hope for a snap back in the Panthers’ shot and save percentages.
2. Let us take the combined percentage a step further. Consider this group of players: Aaron Ekblad, Brad Boyes, Nick Bjugstad, Brian Campbell, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Aleksander Barkov. One could reasonably say this is a pretty good group of players. Why this particular group though? They all have combined percentages well below 100% at home. Aaron Ekblad has the highest among them at 96.7%. Aleksander Barkov has the lowest, a mind-boggling 89.5%! Additionally, with the exception of Ekblad, all of these players have an on-ice shot percentage under 6%. Simply put: the big guns have been silent on home ice. However, there is regression to 100% for players too, so there is more hope that these players can snap back a bit. Should that happen, the Panthers will find themselves in a much better place.
3. How about a little good news? The Panthers are a +2 in goal differential at 5 on 5. That’s good for 14th in the league. If they are hovering near even with these struggles at home, imagine how good this will look with an increase in production.
Projected Lineup:
Carolina Hurricanes
L1: Tlusty | E. Staal | Semin
L2: Gerbe | Nash | Lindholm
L3: Skinner | Rask | Nestrasil
L4: Boychuk | McClement | Dwyer
D1: Sekera | Faulk
D2: Liles | Gleason
D3: Hainsey | Jordan
SG: Ward
BG: Khudobin
Florida Panthers
L1: Huberdeau | Bjugstad | Pirri
L2: Bergenheim | Barkov | Boyes
L3: Fleischmann | Trocheck | Jokinen
L4: Kopecky | MacKenzie | Thornton
D1: Mitchell | Ekblad
D2: Campbell | Kulikov
D3: Olsen | Gudbranson
SG: Luongo
BG: Montoya
Closing Thoughts:
Who doesn’t love the Brass Bonanza?
AJ can be reached for contact on Twitter.
