Summary:
Ho ho ho! Welcome to the post-Christmas, pre-New Year’s Holiday Season Extravaganza, featuring three home games in four days with the Florida Panthers! Game one sees the Toronto Maple Leafs march into town, expelled from their home arena for the week as the IIHF World Junior Championship is being held in part there. The Panthers will look to pick up where they left off before the Christmas break, which saw them beat the Pittsburgh Penguins in a shootout on home ice. The Panthers went 4-1-1 going into the Christmas break, can they find a way to pick up where they left off? How will six days between games affect them? On to the game!
Know Your Enemy:
Panthers All-Time Record v. Toronto: 27-28-5 with 7 ties
2013-14 Season Record v. Toronto: 3-1-0
Last Game: 4/10/14 @ BB&T Center, Panthers won 4-2
The Toronto Maple Leafs, for much of the last two seasons, have been the hockey analytics community’s favorite pin cushion. Between being the team in Canada’s biggest market, the soundbites coming out of the team’s front office, and the numbers the team was putting up, it was a natural fit for a high level of criticism and scrutiny. While it appears the fervor of criticism of the team does not quite reach last year’s levels, likely due to front office changes, this year’s Leafs still have a host of problems, many of them the same. First, and foremost, there is not a regular player in the Leafs lineup with positive possession stats. Every single regular is under 50% and possesses a minus shot attempt differential when playing 5-on-5. In fact, the Leafs have been outshot in 10 straight games, to the tune of 283 shot to 383 shots against. Yes, the Leafs have a shot differential of -100 over the last 10 games. Yet, they are 7-3-0 in those ten games. So, even though they are, by all appearances, getting their doors blown off, the Panthers are still in for a battle. In particular, the Panthers need to watch out for Phil Kessel, arguably the Leafs best forward. He is Top 10 in the league for goals and points, has two 80+ point seasons on his resume, and is on pace to collect another one this year. In addition to Kessel, the rest of the Leafs offense is pretty darn good too. They have 5 other players with 20 or more points, including James van Riemsdyk, who is the only other player with more than 30 points. The Panthers don’t have one player with 20 points. Read: the Maple Leafs offense is a heck of a lot more potent than the Panthers. Respect that.
The Rundown:
Panthers Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Nick Bjugstad & Aaron Ekblad (12)
Assists: Aaron Ekblad (14)
Points: Nick Bjugstad (19)
Shot Attempt (Corsi) Rel: Sean Bergenheim (+6.9%)
Shot Attempt Differential: Sean Bergenheim (+99)
Power Play: 13.0% (27th)
Penalty Kill: 81.2% (T-14th)
Maple Leafs Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Phil Kessel (17)
Assists: Phil Kessel (21)
Points: Phil Kessel (38)
Shot Attempts (Corsi) Rel: Nazem Kadri (+6.6%)
Shot Attempt Differential: Nazem Kadri (-8)
Power Play: 20.3% (9th)
Penalty Kill: 83.9% (10th)
*Shot Attempt (Corsi) stats calculated at 5v5, having played at least one half of team’s games.
The Hat Trick:
1. The Panthers find themselves in the middle of a 4 game homestand over the holiday season. Let’s take a look at how the Panthers have done historically in games over the holiday season. Including Monday night’s victory over Pittsburgh, the Panthers have amassed a record of 18-18-9 with 3 ties over the holiday season. Their fortunes have been much better over the last decade, sliding in with an 11-8-7 record since the 2005-06 season. Last season was not particularly great, with the Panthers going 1-2-1, with their lone win coming on December 29, 2013 against the Canadiens, an impressive 4-1 victory against Montreal, with their backup goaltender Peter Budaj in net. They would pick up an extra point against the New York Ranger on New Year’s Eve with a loss in the shootout. As outlined in my piece from yesterday (Measuring Stick, Anyone?), this is a very crucial part of the season for the Panthers and could make or break the season. They must squeeze everything they can from these next three games.
2. Here’s a feather in the cap of the Panthers: the damage they did to Pittsburgh’s power play over their home-and-home series. The Penguins went a paltry 1-for-10 on the PP vs. the Panthers. This shot them down from 2nd in the league to 5th. While still very good, obviously, the fact is that the Panthers were so good on the penalty kill, they sent a top power play unit sliding down the standings. When is the last time that has happened with the Panthers?
3. While Aaron Ekblad is getting all the accolades and plaudits, Dmitry Kulikov is quietly having a very nice year for himself. He is currently collecting 1.1 points per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play, the highest of his career. Its not just offensive numbers with Kulikov though. The Panthers give up just 45.7 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play when he is on the ice. This leads all Panthers defensemen and only Sean Bergenheim is better among all players playing at least half of the Panthers games. The Panthers are also giving up 1.8 goals per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play, which is behind only Erik Gudbranson. Also, it is Kulikov and his partner Willie Mitchell who get the toughest assignments, so he is getting it done against the league’s best. Well done.
Projected Lineup:
Florida Panthers
L1: Huberdeau | Bjugstad | Trocheck
L2: Bergenheim | Barkov | Hayes
L3: Jokinen | Bolland | Boyes
L4: Kopecky | MacKenzie | Upshall
D1: Campbell | Ekblad
D2: Mitchell | Kulikov
D3: Gudbranson | Olsen
SG: Luongo
BG: Montoya
Toronto Maple Leafs
L1: Lupul | Bozak | Kessel
L2: van Riemsdyk | Kadri | Santorelli
L3: Winnik | Holland | Clarkson
L4: Booth | Smith | Panik
D1: Phaneuf | Franson
D2: Gardiner | Polak
D3: Rielly | Robidas
SG: Reimer
BG: Bernier
Courtesy of Daily Faceoff (Accurate as of 10:00 am)
Closing Thoughts:
Who would find it terribly amusing if Dave Bolland has his best game of the year so far against the Leafs?
