Game Day Post (12/30/14): Montreal Canadiens (23-11-2) @ Florida Panthers (16-9-8)

Summary:

The thrill is just settling down now on Sunday night’s comeback victory against Toronto. The Panthers roared back from 2 goals down with 4 unanswered goals to blow the Leafs out of town. Now, it’s another old time Canadian opponent rolling into town, the Montreal Canadiens. The Panthers had a strong December against Montreal last season, going 2-0-0 including an impressive 4-1 victory on home ice before a sell-out crowd. Tonight, they must find a way to do it again. Can the Panthers find a way to replicate the same magic? On to the game!

Know Your Enemy:

Panthers All-Time Record v. Montreal: 36-28-8 with 6 ties
2013-14 Season Record v. Montreal: 2-2-0
Last Game: 3/29/14 @ BB&T Center, Panthers lost 4-1
The Panthers see the Canadiens for the first time this season and are the only divisional opponent the Cats have not seen yet. Last season’s Eastern Conference finalists roll into town hot off a 3-1 victory in Raleigh last night against the Hurricanes, making it 5 victories in their last 6 games. This successful run comes on the heels of a long skid which saw the Canadiens lose 6 of 7 games from November 23 to December 6. However, this is a team the Panthers cannot sleep on. The Habs possess five players on their roster with 20 or more points: forwards Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec, and David Desharnais in addition to top defenseman P.K. Subban. They are further buoyed by the superb goaltending of one Carey Price, who is top 10 in both Goals Against Average (7th) and Save Percentage (5th) and sports a sterling 20-9-1 record. However, Price played last night in Carolina, so there is a chance the Panthers may draw Dustin Tokarski in net, who is putting up respectable numbers with a 3-2-1 record, .914 save percentage, and 2.44 GAA. They also have a handful of good young players in Jiri Sekac, Sven Andrighetto, and Nathan Beaulieu (who recently returned from a stint riding the bus with Montreal’s AHL affiliate in Hamilton, Onatrio). Aside from the individual components, the Canadiens are the second best faceoff team in league, winning 55%, are giving up just 2 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play (good for 10th in the league), and are scoring 2.5 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play (good for 9th in the league). Although the Canadiens do not have good possession numbers, they obviously remain a credible threat.

The Rundown:

Panthers Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Nick Bjugstad (12)
Assists: Jussi Jokinen (15)
Points: Nick Bjugstad (20)
Shot Attempt (Corsi) Rel: Brian Campbell (+9.5)
Power Play: 13.6% (27th)
Penalty Kill: 81.0% (15th)

Canadiens Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Max Pacioretty (14)
Assists: P.K. Subban, Alex Galchenyuk, & David Desharnais (15)
Points: Max Pacioretty (38)
Shot Attempts (Corsi) Rel: Max Pacioretty (+13.7)
Power Play: 15.0% (24th)
Penalty Kill: 85.7% (6th)

*Shot Attempt (Corsi) Relative calculated at 5v5, and expressed as the differential between the amount of shot attempts taken per 60 minutes of play from when player is on the ice compared to when player is off the ice, having played at least one half of team’s games.

The Hat Trick:

1. The Panthers are a team that has been starved for offense throughout the year. They are averaging just 2.24 goals per game, which is the 5th lowest mark in the league. However, you would not be able to tell that as of late. The Panthers are averaging a flat 3 goals per game over the last 11 games, which is over the league average. Furthermore, their 4 goal explosion in the 3rd period on Sunday night was the 2nd time it has happened this season, the other explosion happening in Anaheim during the 2nd period of that game. In fact, the Panthers have failed to score more than 1 goal just once in that 11 game span and failed to score more than 2 goals just 4 times. Perhaps the Panthers have found a new, better offensive rhythm.

2. With the Panthers dominating the Leafs in terms of shot attempts on Sunday night, the Panthers have moved up to 11th in score adjusted-shot attempts. At the 15 game mark, the Panthers were at just 50.4%, the number 15 team in the league as the monkey in the middle. Now, after 33 games, the Panthers have a healthy 52.1%, which ties them with the Washington Capitals. In the 18 games since the 15 game mark, the Panthers are a remarkable 53.3%, which is 7th best in the NHL over that time. To tie in with the last thought, the Panthers are at 55.5% over the last 11 games, which is 4th best, trailing only Los Angeles, Winnipeg, and Detroit, in that order. This, coupled with the rise in goal scoring, certainly seems to suggest that the Panthers are starting to do something right. The only question is can that be sustained and without sacrificing the great work they have done defensively?

3. The Panthers have cleaned up nicely at home after a messy start to the year. In the first 8 home games of the season, the Panthers went a mediocre 3-4-1, getting outscored to the tune of 22-17, while narrowly outshooting the opposition 244-241. However, since losing 4-1 to the Minnesota Wild on November 24, the Panthers have gone 6-0-1 in 7 home games, outscoring their opponents just 17-15 and handedly outshooting the competition 266-178. The Panthers have not allowed more than 30 shots since giving up 33 to Carolina on November 26. They have also failed to reach thirty shots only twice, both times coming close to the 30 mark with 28 shots against Carolina and 29 shots against Washington. The Panthers are getting it done on the back of good work suppressing shots.

Projected Lineup:

Florida Panthers

D1: Campbell | Ekblad
D2: Mitchell | Kulikov
D3: Gudbranson | Olsen

SG: Luongo
BG: Montoya

Montreal Canadiens

D1: Markov | Subban
D2: Beaulieu | Gonchar
D3: Emelin | Gilbert

SG: Tokarski
BG: Price

Courtesy of Daily Faceoff (Accurate as of 10:00 am)

Closing Thoughts:

Jean Beliveau. 20 seasons with the Montreal Canadiens. 1,125 games played. 1,219 career points. 507 career goals. 2 Hart Trophies. 1 Art Ross Trophy. The first Conn Smythe Trophy. 17 Stanley Cups: 10 as a player, 7 as a team executive. This is a resume of supremacy few can match. However, you know a great legacy has been left behind when this is a footnote to all of the good deeds done off the ice. Mr. Beliveau was a very special man and his presence will be missed in this world.

AJ can be reached for contact on Twitter .