Summary:
The Panthers are off and running on their season long 6-game road trip. They shutout the Buffalo Sabres 3-0 on Friday night, in true road warrior fashion. Now, the train has pulled into it’s second destination: the Nation’s capital. The Panthers are facing one of the hotter teams in the league in the Capitals, fresh off outdoor victory in the Winter Classic. They will not have the luxury of playing a weak squad, so the Panthers need to be on their toes for this one. Can the Panthers douse the Capitals’ fire? On to the game!
Know Your Enemy:
Panthers All-Time Record v. Washington: 45-50-9 with 9 ties
2014-15 Season Record v. Washington: 1-0-1
Last Game: 12/16/14 @ BB&T Center, Panthers won 2-1 in the shootout
One thing is certain going into this final game between the Panthers and the Capitals in the 2014-15 season: it will be nearly impossible to match the epicness of the last game. The odds of seeing another 20-round shootout are about as likely as seeing a unicorn trot out of the zamboni entrance and start Riverdancing. The odds of seeing a shootout in general though appear much larger and realistic. Four of the last five games between these two teams dating back to last season have gone to the shootout, with each team winning two games. Unfortunately, those two shootout victories are the only ones the Panthers have against the Capitals in their last 12 games against each other. In fact, the Panthers haven’t won a game at Verizon Center in Washington, DC since December 9, 2010, when Tomas Vokoun had a 36-save shutout on the back of goals by Michael Frolik, Steve Bernier, and Mike Santorelli. In addition to being hot against the Panthers, the Capitals are equally hot in general as of late. They have just 1 regulation loss in their last 13 games, amassing a 9-1-3 record in that time. The team is also fresh off adding to their hot streak on New Year’s Day at Nationals Park, as they defeated the Chicago Blackhawks in the waning seconds of the Winter Classic. Individually speaking, the Caps have six players with five or more points over that span. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom are leading the way with 7 points each. However, not only is Washington’s offense in good shape, so is their goaltending. Braden Holtby has played in each of the 13 games, and has a .935 save percentage with 2 shutouts. Throw in a deadly power play and the Panthers have their hands full this afternoon.
The Rundown:
Panthers Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Nick Bjugstad (14)
Assists: Aaron Ekblad (16)
Points: Nick Bjugstad (22)
Shot Attempt (Corsi) Rel: Sean Bergenheim (+11.3)
Power Play: 14.6% (T-26th)
Penalty Kill: 81.0% (T-14th)
Capitals Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Alex Ovechkin (18)
Assists: Nicklas Backstrom (26)
Points: Nicklas Backstrom (38)
Shot Attempts (Corsi) Rel: Alex Ovechkin (+13.4)
Power Play: 23.0% (4th)
Penalty Kill: 78.0% (25th)
*Shot Attempt (Corsi) Relative calculated at 5v5, and expressed as the differential between the amount of shot attempts taken per 60 minutes of play from when player is on the ice compared to when player is off the ice, having played at least one half of team’s games.
The Hat Trick:
1. Interestingly, there is a noticeable gap between the Panthers powerplay at home and on the road. Overall, they possess the 4th worst power play in the league, with a success rating of just 14.6%. This is matched by a putrid 12.7% performance on home ice, the 3rd worst in the league. On home ice, they get 92.2 shot attempts per 60, which is 5th worst in the league, and shoot at 9.0%, the 4th worst mark in the league. That’s a lot of “worst” and unfortunately does not come as a surprise. What is a surprise though is how not terribly awful the road numbers. The Panthers convert 16.4% of their powerplays on the road, which ties them with Philadelphia for 15th in the league. While this is merely mediocre, it is also not particularly bad. They generate 90.8 scoring chances per 60 minutes, the 12th worst and less than they get at home, but shoot at 11.0% which is tied for 16th best in the league. Part of what may explain the discrepancy in success is the fact that the Panthers have played 10 bottom half penalty killing teams, but just 5 of top half teams on the road. Meanwhile, they have played 8 top half teams and 8 bottom half teams at home. So, it appears there is a difference in the quality of penalty killing unit they are facing on the road vs. at home, rather than doing something better on the road than at home.
2. The powerplay, however, has been on somewhat of a hot streak of late. The Panthers have scored four power play goals in their last six games and have a shot attempt percentage at 93.0%, the 10th best in the league since December 20. It is much better than their season average of 88.7%, which is tied for the 11th worst mark in the league. Even more encouraging is that all of the teams they have faced, aside from the Buffalo Sabres, have penalty killing units in the top half of the league, so the Panthers have managed to get some semblance of results against decent to good units. They’re also doing it while having the 5th worst shooting percentage at 9.9%. Don’t call it a turn around yet, we will have to see if the trend continues. If the Panthers’ shooting percentage remains down, count on the trend not sticking.
3. Scoring chance data was recently added to war-on-ice.com, an excellent resource of fancy cats, erm, stats. Here’s a quick take on the team’s performance offensively and defensively using these stats. The league average for scoring chances for per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play for a player (minimum 250 minutes played) is 26.1. The Panthers have just 6 players who come in above this line: Jimmy Hayes (27.2), Vincent Trocheck (27.1), Aaron Ekblad (26.7), Brian Campbell (26.6), Sean Bergenheim (26.3), and Jonathan Huberdeau (26.1). On the flip side, the league average for a player on scoring chances against per 60 minutes is 26.0. Every single Panther on the roster with at least 250 minutes played is below this mark. The only other teams that can claim that distinction are the Detroit Red Wings and the Nashville Predators. It, again, highlights both a curse and a blessing that we have visited time and again with this team: the Panthers offense is impotent, and the Panthers defense is class of the league.
Projected Lineup:
Florida Panthers
L1: Hayes | Bjugstad | Pirri
L2: Bergenheim | Barkov | Boyes
L3: Huberdeau | Trocheck | Jokinen
L4: Upshall | Bolland | MacKenzie
D1: Campbell | Ekblad
D2: Mitchell | Kulikov
D3: O’Brien | Olsen
SG: Luongo
BG: Montoya
Washington Capitals
L1: Burkovsky | Backstrom | Ovechkin
L2: Johnasson | Kuznetsov | Brouwer
L3: Laich | Fehr | Ward
L4: Chimera | Beagle | Wilson
D1: Orpik | Carlson
D2: Alzner | Niskanen
D3: Hillen | Green
SG: Holtby
BG: Peters
Courtesy of Daily Faceoff (Accurate as of 10:00 am)
Closing Thoughts:
Please consider joining in on “Panthers Help Pets”, as we’re raising money for The Humane Society of Broward County. I personally am donating $2.50 for every goal Nick Bjugstad scores this season (shootout included), $5 if it is a game winning goal (shootout included), and $10 for the 3rd goal of a hat trick (and each successive goal after that in a game). So far, Bjugstad has no hat tricks, 14 goals, 3 of those game winners, and 2 game winning shootout goals, which means a $52.50 donation has been sent today to THSBC. Read here for all the details on how you can help too.
