The Panthers road jaunt comes to an end tonight on the shores of Lake Ontario. It’s a tilt between the first place and last place teams in the Atlantic Division. Can the Panthers maintain their Top Cat status? Or will the Leafs spoil this game rotten?
The Numbers
Team Breakdown
| Florida Panthers | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 39-22-9 (1st Atlantic) | 24-34-11 (8th Atlantic) |
| GF/60 (5v5) | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| GA/60 (5v5) | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| CF/60 (5v5) | 49.2 | 58.9 |
| CA/60 (5v5) | 51.3 | 57.2 |
| PDO (5v5) | 101.5 | 98.6 |
| Power Play | 17.1% - 41 for 240 (23rd) | 14.7% - 32 for 217 (30th) |
| Penalty Kill | 81.7% - 187 for 229 (11th) | 81.0% - 183 for 226 (19th) |
Individual Leaders
| Florida Panthers | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Points | Jaromir Jagr - 54 | Nazem Kadri - 37 |
| Goals | A. Barkov, J. Jagr & R. Smith - 23 | Leo Komarov - 19 |
| Assists | Jussi Jokinen - 37 | Nazem Kadri - 25 |
| P1/60 (5v5) | Jaromir Jagr - 1.98 | James van Riemsdyk - 1.41 |
| iCorsi/60 (5v5) | Nick Bjugstad - 13.2 | Nazem Kadri - 19.5 |
| CF% rel (5v5, SA) | Jussi Jokinen - +6.3% | James van Riemsdyk - +6.3% |
| PenD (5v5) | Aleksander Barkov - +9 | Nazem Kadri - +8 |
Goalie Matchup
| Roberto Luongo | Jonathan Bernier | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-17-6 | 9-18-3 |
| Sv% | .921 | .904 |
| AvgShDA (feet) | 32.41 | 36.73 |
| ReboundAg/60 | 2.17 | 1.24 |
| RushShotAg/60 | 2.07 | 2.66 |
| GAA | 2.36 | 2.95 |
* – Stats are courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and Hockey-Reference.com
Projected Lineups
Florida Panthers
| #11 Jonathan Huberdeau | #16 Aleksander Barkov | #68 Jaromir Jagr |
| #36 Jussi Jokinen | #21 Vincent Trocheck | #18 Reilly Smith |
| #26 Teddy Purcell | #27 Nick Bjugstad | #24 Jiri Hudler |
| #28 Garrett Wilson | #48 Logan Shaw | #22 Shawn Thornton |
| #7 Dmitry Kulikov | #5 Aaron Ekblad |
| #51 Brian Campbell | #3 Steven Kampfer |
| #46 Jakub Kindl | #6 Alex Petrovic |
| #1 Roberto Luongo |
| #35 Al Montoya |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| #41 Nikita Soshnikov | #43 Nazem Kadri | #47 Leo Komarov |
| #15 P-A Parenteau | #39 William Nylander | #11 Zach Hyman |
| #38 Colin Greening | #23 Brooks Laich | #24 Peter Holland |
| #18 Milan Michalek | #26 Ben Smith | #40 Michael Grabner |
| #44 Morgan Reilly | #8 Connor Carrick |
| #51 Jake Gardiner | #20 Frank Corrado |
| #52 Martin Marincin | #29 Rinat Valiev |
| #45 Jonathan Bernier |
| #31 Garrett Sparks |
The Hat Trick
30/40 Split: Jaromir Jagr has been the one making the history of late. Tonight, however, is a different story. Both the Panthers as a whole and Roberto Luongo individually can add to franchise history with a win tonight. The Panthers would earn their 40th victory of the season, a feat only three other Panther squads (1995-96, 1999-2000, and 2007-08) have accomplished. Likewise, Luongo would earn his 30th victory of the season, something only Tomas Vokoun (30 in 2007-08) and himself (35 in 2005-06) have done in franchise history.
A Promising Trend: Don’t look now, but it appears the Panthers underlying shot metrics are coming together. Early in the season, the Panthers struggled with both generation and suppression. The latter improved quickly in the month of December, with the Panthers CA60 dipping to crazy low levels during the 12 game win streak. Its risen a bit since then, but has levelled off near the Panthers season average, which ranks among the best in the league:
However, the shot generation has taken some time to come around. It rose a bit during the win streak, but stayed fairly low. However, it has been taking off since the end of February:
It does not seem like a coincidence to me that the Panthers have been scoring more lately. If you are concerned about the sustainability of this run, check out the Cats PDO. It’s actually been regressing:
There is quite a bit to feel good about here. Its great to see the Panthers trending upwards from the beginning of the season, it exactly what you want to see with a growing core of young players. Keep this up, and this will be a team no one will look forward to in the playoffs.
(Graphs from Corsica.hockey)
Toronto Maple Buds: The Leafs have changed colors and fallen in Toronto. 25 players who appeared for the team last season have moved on from the playing roster, and now a host of young players have come up for the Leafs. Most notable among them is William Nylander, son of former NHLer Michael Nylander. William was the Leafs’ 1st round selection in 2014, 8th overall, and tonight is an important one for him. He will appear in his 10th game of the season, which means a year of his ELC will be burned off with tonight’s appearance. The season is lost, and he’s had only two goals, but this should give a nice window into where Nylander stands.
Another notable name to Panther fans will be Zach Hyman. He is a former 2010 5th round pick of the Cats. He was traded to Toronto this offseason for Greg McKegg. Hyman had a break out year in 2014-15 at the University of Michigan. He put up 54 points, after previously putting up two 9 point seasons and a 17 point season. We will see him donning the Maple Leaf tonight, also playing in his 10th game of the season. He’s got a goal and 3 assists through his first nine games.
Closing Thoughts
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