Hit The Ice:
The penultimate 2014-15 Panthers game has arrived and it’s a doozy. While the Panthers are quite finished as a playoff hopeful, this game does have some meaning. Tonight, they welcome in the team that dashed their playoff dreams, the Boston Bruins. This time however, it’s the Panthers who hold the opportunity to destroy dreams. It is the case of a team that is not only playing for pride but perhaps a bit of revenge as well. Will the Panthers get their pound of flesh from the Boston Bruins? On to the game!
Know Your Enemy:
Panthers All-Time Record v. Boston: 33-37-6 with 6 ties
All-Time Record v. Boston at Home: 15-17-5 with 2 ties
2014-15 Season Record v. Boston: 1-1-1
Last Game: 3/31/15 @ TD Garden (Boston, MA), Bruins won 3-2
It’s you again… the last time these two teams played each other, the Panthers walked away in devastation. The Panthers led 2-1 heading into the third period, but Ryan Spooner tied the game halfway through the third period. Then Milan Lucic drove the dagger into the Panthers, potting the go-ahead goal with just 1:09 left in the 3rd to seal the win. It was the 3rd of 5 straight wins for the the Bs, as they have continued on in their push for a playoff spot. Wins over Detroit and Toronto have put the Bruins at 95 points, good enough for the final Wild Card spot. However, last night was a disaster for Boston’s favored hockey team. Tuukka Rask put together a decidedly average performance, making 30 saves on 33 shots, while the Bruins ran into a red hot Braden Holtby, who stopped all 27 shots levied his way. It made the Washington netminder the first in NHL history to shutout the Bruins completely over the course of a season series. This has put the Bruins in a desperate situation in which they must win, or be overtaken by the still hard charging Ottawa Senators, who have tied the Bruins in points as of the current moment. In order to ensure their safety, they will need to get back to where they were prior to last night’s shutout in a hurry. They had scored 2 or more goals in 7 straight games and had given up 2 or fewer in 5 straight games. They will also need a little more from their star players, as Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Krejci all have just one point since last defeating the Panthers, while Milan Lucic has had no points at all. They will also likely have to play Tuukka Rask in yet another back to back situation as they have all the way down the stretch run of the season.
Historical Data Courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com
The Rundown:
Panthers Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Nick Bjugstad (24)
Assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (39)
Points: Jonathan Huberdeau (52)
SAT Relative: Brian Campbell (+4.8%)
Scoring Chances Relative: Brian Campbell (+6.4%)
Individual Shot Attempts (Total): Nick Bjugstad (238)
Individual Shot Attempts (Rate/60): Brandon Pirri (17.6)
Power Play: 15.8% (38 for 240, 27th)
Penalty Kill: 80.1% (197 for 246, 23rd)
Bruins Leaders & Special Teams
Goals: Patrice Bergeron & Brad Marchand (22)
Assists: Patrice Bergeron (32)
Points: Patrice Bergeron (54)
SAT Relative: Patrice Bergeron (+9.3%)
Scoring Chances Relative: Patrice Bergeron (+11.9%)
Individual Shot Attempts (Total): Patrice Bergeron (277)
Individual Shot Attempts (Rate/60): Patrice Bergeron (16.3)
Power Play: 17.9% (37 for 207, 19th)
Penalty Kill: 82.1% (197 for 240, 12th)
Data Courtesy of war-on-ice.com, Puckalytics.com, & NHL.com
The Hat Trick:
Spoil ‘Em Rotten: The Panthers could have a chance at revenge tonight. The Bruins fell to the Washington Capitals 3-0 last night, leaving them at 95 points and just two games left to play, including tonight. While the Bruins remain seated in the 2nd and final Wild Card spot, trouble looms with the Ottawa Senators sitting just outside the Wild Card with 95 points as well. The Senators play tonight against the New York Rangers, who have already clinched the President’s Trophy as the NHL’s best regular season team. Should the Panthers and Senators win, the Bruins will find themselves two points down with one game left, against a Tampa Bay Lightning squad that may still be pushing for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. Just as the Bruins dealt the Panthers playoff hopes a deadly blow, the tables can be turned tonight with one very satisfying Panthers victory.
No Shooting Zone: The Panthers have been one of the better shot suppression teams down the stretch run of the season. Since February 26, the Panthers have given up 49.6 shot attempts against per 60 minutes (SATA/60) of 5-on-5 play. That is the 5th lowest mark in the league over that span, and feeds into what is the 7th best mark in the league for the entire season at 50.8. Aaron Ekblad leads the way individually with just 43.3 SATA/60, with defense partner Brian Campbell not far behind at 44.3. Jimmy Hayes leads all forwards at 44.5, with Vincent Trocheck right behind him at 44.6. So the good news is that the Panthers are good at limiting shot attempts. Next step: get a few more shots going the other way, as the Panthers get 53.5 shot attempts for per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play, just 21st in the league.
Goals Above Replacement: War-on-ice.com recently unveiled their goals above replacement (GAR) metric by shot rate, which is explained here. Essentially, the goal of the metric is to demonstrate how many goals a player is worth over a replacement player, which is determined to be a 4th line forward/3rd pair defenseman rather than an AHL quality player. Let us just take a look at this season. The league leader in GAR is Boston’s Mr. Everything, Patrice Bergeron at 19.1, with San Jose’s Joe Pavelski (18.1) and Joe Thornton (17.8) following behind. The numbers are a little more modest when it comes to the Panthers though. Jaromir Jagr has the highest GAR of any Panthers player at 8.0 (this includes his time with New Jersey). The highest GAR of any Panthers player who has been here the whole year belongs to Captain Willie Mitchell at 6.0. Both players enjoy decent Offensive and Defensive GAR numbers, with Jagr having a slight bump in offensive and Mitchell a slight bump defensively. Brian Campbell leads the team in defensive GAR at 5.2, but suffers a -1.9 in offensive GAR, thus hurting his overall GAR. However, when breaking down to 5-on-5 play, Jagr actually leads the team in Defensive GAR at 4.3. What about the young guns? Jonathan Huberdeau has the best overall GAR at 4.6, followed by Aleksander Barkov (3.6), Aaron Ekblad (3.5), and Vincent Trocheck (3.3). Huberdeau also leads in Offensive GAR at 3.7, while Erik Gudbranson leads Defensive GAR at 3.8. These numbers provide an interesting contrast to some of the more well-known shot attempt metrics out there, which tend to paint players like Willie Mitchell in a more negative light. It is nice to see the Captain get some love from the numbers.
Projected Lineup:
Florida Panthers
L1: Huberdeau | Barkov | Jagr
L2: Pirri | Bolland | Boyes
L3: Jokinen | Trocheck | Hayes
L4: Kopecky | MacKenzie | Thornton
D1: Campbell | Ekblad
D2: Mitchell | Gudbranson
D3: Kulikov | Petrovic
SG: Luongo
BG: Ellis
Boston Bruins
L1: Marchand | Bergeron | Eriksson
L2: Lucic | Krejci | Pastrnak
L3: Kelly | Spooner | Connolly
L4: Campbell | Soderberg | Smith
D1: Chara | Trotman
D2: Krug | Seidenberg
D3: Bartkowski | McQuaid
SG: Rask
BG: Svedberg
Courtesy of Daily Faceoff (Accurate as of 10:00 am)
Closing Thoughts:
If a bear craps in the Everglades, does it make the playoffs? No, it does not.
