Let’s suppose that Jameis Winston goes first overall to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is considered to be a lock, leaving the Tennessee Titans with an opportunity to draft Heisman Trophy-winning former Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota with the second overall pick.
Let’s also suppose the Chicago Bears would be willing to part with veteran quarterback Jay Cutler in order to trade up for a chance to draft Mariota, which seems plausible considering there’s a new regime in Chicago and the 31-year-old Cutler hasn’t been able to succeed with a strong Bears offense the last few years.
Finally, let’s consider the outside chance that the San Diego Chargers might consider trading veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, because Rivers is entering a contract year and the 33-year-old has already indicated he won’t talk extension until after the upcoming season.
There are a lot of factors at play in potential trades. For instance, a report from NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport indicates the Bolts would need “several first-round picks” in exchange for Rivers, who has been to five Pro Bowls. And both he and Cutler carry huge salary cap numbers.
But let’s set all that aside for a moment and simply consider where the Titans’ priorities should lie if indeed all three players are available. Because that’s really all that matters. The reality is the last 12 Super Bowl winners indicate you simply can’t win in this league without a great quarterback, and the Titans have to know that. They haven’t been competitive since the Steve McNair era.
In my opinion, the Titans have to be prioritizing their potential quarterbacks like this:
1. Philip Rivers if at all possible
Maybe you don’t sell the farm; maybe you try to get him for the second overall pick and a second-rounder this year or next year. After all, he’ll turn 34 this season. But in quarterback land, that isn’t necessarily old. And if you can keep building around a guy like Rivers, who truly possesses the skill to win at this level, then you might have a chance to make some runs in 2015 and beyond. There’s about a five-year window for Rivers right now, and the Titans have already begun to rebuild. Doing so doesn’t take long in this league, especially if you have a franchise quarterback.
2. Mariota should still be the consolation prize
The Titans could be accused of giving preferential treatment to local guys here. After all, Rivers is from a town in Alabama about 100 miles south of Nashville and Cutler played his college ball right there at Vanderbilt. But Rivers has been to five Pro Bowls, while Cutler’s been to just one. Rivers is a legit prize, Cutler would be a token signing.
Mariota, on the other hand, has enough upside to merit a shot. Does anyone really believe Cutler can win anything at this point in his career? There can’t be a lot of hope left there, not after all of the problems he had in Chicago despite throwing to one of the best 1-2 wide receiver duos in the NFL. No way in hell I’d give up an early first-round pick for Cutler. If anything, I’d try to get him for a later selection and use that No. 2 pick on a player at another position.
3. That leaves Jay
We’ve established that using early draft picks on quarterbacks is silly. Looking at the 17 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2009, no more than three of them (Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill and maybe Matthew Stafford) had what I’d call good 2014 campaigns. So maybe you don’t use an early pick on Mariota. But that doesn’t mean you trade it, and especially not for an inconsistent, reckless sourpuss of a quarterback.
The only way that should happen is if Tennessee is certain it can still get the guy it wants by moving down five spots to the seventh selection that Chicago currently holds. If that’s the case, it’s a win-win and you gamble on Cutler, who is still probably better than Zach Mettenberger.
