After opening at 5.5 points, the Super Bowl line has settled at around 6.0 with the Carolina Panthers favored over the Denver Broncos. One would assume the Panthers are favored due in large part to its 15-1 regular season record and the manner with which it eliminated its playoff opponents Seattle 31-24 and Arizona 49-15.
All things considered, it would be prudent to consider whether or not the Broncos are indeed as much of an underdog as the line indicates. One one hand, the Panthers are very flashy with its brash young QB in Cam Newton and high scoring offense. On the other side of the field, the Broncos are led by a strong defense and an aging QB, Peyton Manning, who is arguably one of the greatest football players in NFL history.
To begin the analysis, everyone sans Carolina fans would love to see Manning close out a brilliant career with another Super Bowl victory. While no formal announcement has been made, it is widely assumed he will be hanging up the cleats at the end of the season, win or lose. He, in fact, was voted Super Bowl MVP in 2007 after leading the Indianapolis Colts to a 29-17 victory over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI.
That said, Manning is far from the QB he was back in the 2006 season when he threw for 4,397 yards and 31 TDs with only 9 interceptions. Fast forward to the 2015 season, he missed 6 games and completed only 59.6% of his passes (lowest since rookie season), resulting in career lows for yards (2,249), TDs (9) while throwing 17 interceptions. The fact is the Broncos struggled on offense all year with only 355 yards of offense per game. However, that was more than offset by a defense that ranked first in the league for yards allowed per game at 283 and fourth for points allowed per game at 18.5. In other words, the Broncos defense did a great job of keeping games close while the offense scored just enough to secure a record of 12-4 during the regular season.
Given this brief analysis, one would have to assume this game will need to be won in similar manner. Assuming Manning doesn’t turn back the clock 4-5 years while hobbling on a sore foot, it will be up to the defense to keep the game close enough for the Broncos to be able to find away to win the game. That is going to be a tall task, considering the Panthers have the top scoring offense in the league at 31.3 PPG.
The Panthers offense begins and ends will MVP candidate Newton. On the season, he ran or passed for 4,473 yards while accounting for 45 TDs and only 10 interceptions. It was his ability to finally grasp a leadership role that led to the Panthers huge turnaround from a 7-8-1 season recorded in 2014. Also, the Panthers have a defense that more than held its own, ranking sixth in the league in both scoring defense (193 PPG) and yards allowed at 322 YPG.
With a marginal advantage on defense and a big deficit on offense, the 6-point line seems reasonable. However, the one intangible that can’t be factored into the line is Manning’s will to win. A man doesn’t retire from the NFL as its leader in passing yards and TDs by accident. The Broncos might be an underdog, but gamblers should proceed with caution.
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