*THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE PERTAINS SPECIFICALLY TO 10-16 TEAM MIXED ROTISSERIE AND HEAD-TO-HEAD FANTASY LEAGUES*
Every week, I’ll provide a list of current waiver-wire players who are widely available (no more than 50% owned in ESPN standard leagues), and break them down with a detailed analysis. Said analysis is to explain why each player would be worth considering when you’re aiming to add a particular player to your fantasy team. Mostly all positions will be covered in some capacity each week, so be sure to stay tuned!
Another week, another extensive list of sluggers and arms worth picking up and streaming. Like a good ol’ fashioned GM assembly line, you can bank on your local fantasy baseball waiver wire churning out player after player to fill voids at various positions, almost on a daily basis. This week is certainly no different. In fact, you may actually find yourself in a bit of a roster-related quandary over who you’re willing to add and drop; the currently-concluding week of baseball features well over two dozen new players reaching ownership levels past 50% in ESPN standard leagues.
However, none of those two dozen players fit my criteria for examination, and discussing why you should add any one of them would be a waste of time (would you seriously take the time to read a post about adding Kendrys Morales or Alex Rodriguez while someone else in your league scoops them up?) With that in mind, I’ll try my best to highlight the best of the best within my criteria, and provide a bit of insight into the performance of those worth monitoring. I’ll be grouping hitters together with pitchers this week, as I will only cover ten different players with extensive research.
HITTERS
Steven Souza, Jr., OF, Tampa Bay Rays (49,8%)
Last week, I covered Kevin Keirmaier and hinted that he could be a safe bet for 10-15 homers and 20 stolen bases hitting at the top of the Rays lineup most nights. You wanna take a wild guess who hits behind him? (Hint: it’s not Desmond Jennings!) Well, it would just so happen to be another guy who’s a safe bet for 10-15 homers and 20 stolen bases (again, though, NOT Desmond Jennings.) Once a highly-touted Washington Nationals prospect who spent the last two years tearing the skin off of baseballs and robbing bases, Steven Souza found himself in the thick of a big three-way offseason trade between the Nats, Padres and Rays this past winter. A whole lot of upside was moved (did I forget to mention that Wil Myers was the centerpiece of this whole thing?), but one has to assume that Tampa Bay stands alone at the top of the podium, here.
Souza carries the most potential of all the youngsters involved in the deal, and his professional career stats do a great job of backing that up. In his last 173 minor league games played spanning AA and AAA ball, Souza hit .327 with 33 home runs, 119 RBI, and 46 stolen bases, with a 12.7% BB rate, 240+ ISO and 170+ wRC. Even if he only carries three-fourths of this production over to a full season of Major League at-bats this year, that still extrapolates to Souza finishing just outside the top-15 of all Major League outfielders!
I’m not entirely in love with the guy yet, though. He’s striking out almost 40% of the time so far this season, and his average minor league K rate was well over 23%. With such a huge hole in his swing, Souza will likely hit plenty of dry spells in his rookie campaign, which will make him a deficiency to your team’s overall batting average output. Also, the Tampa Bay Rays have a chance to finish the season as the worst offense in the game, which will limit Souza’s RBI opportunities and cut into his power numbers via more walks (Note: that’s purely speculation, since the Rays currently don’t have anyone other than Longoria who opposing pitchers would be afraid of going after.) I still think he’ll steal a ton of bases, and a range within 20-25 is beyond reachable with his speed. He’s also caught fire recently (.384 batting average, 3 home runs, 9 RBI over his last six games,) so it appears that his piss-poor Spring Training is officially in the rear-view mirror. As far as upside plays go, this could be a gold mine. I’m picking him up anywhere I can.
Avisail Garcia, OF, Chicago White Sox (39.4%)
I really, really like Avisail Garcia. Ever since he briefly flashed onto the scene with Detroit a couple years back, I’ve taken quite the liking to his physical build and promising hitting approach. The guy even impresses me on a basis of batted ball profile, and most of his advanced stats since his call-up have continued to point to something rather enticing. ZIPS, for example, sees a 13-10 season with a .275 average and meager counting stats; Steamer’s going for 17 dingers, 9 steals, and 64 RBI. This is just about where he should be at the end of the year when healthy, which serves as quite the discount price for waiver wire fodder. The reasons why I feel confident in him meeting those projections vary within the range of “he’s got speed” to “he’s got future 25-homer pop.” Garcia had three separate double-digit steal seasons in the minor leagues, as well as an increasing ISO from 2011 going all the way to last season. My praise won’t stop there, however, as I’d be willing to bet on Garcia beating his pre-season projections. So far in his young campaign, he’s sporting a .286/.359/.429 slash line with a homer (oppo-taco off David Price!), 6 runs scored, and one steal – all of which coming from the 4th and 5th spots in a now-stacked White Sox lineup. Should Garcia continue to prove his high BABIP marks from the minors are legit (thanks to a healthy balance of hard hit groundballs and flyballs,) as well as continue to improve his plate discipline (7.7% BB rate, 20.5% K rate,) he could very well top at around 20 homers and 75-80 RBI with a .270-ish average; good enough to be a top-30 outfielder by season’s end. The fact that he’s been consistently planted in the heart of Chicago’s lineup only boosts his upside, and since Robin Ventura seems committed to letting him play everyday, health appears to be the only thing that could slow him down. In mixed leagues of at least 10 teams, there’s no reason why he should be on your waiver wire.
Denard Span, OF, Washington Nationals (30.7%)
When you’re a career .286 hitter who’s walked nearly as much as you’ve struck out, all it takes to be fantasy relevant is an everyday role with a prime spot in your team’s batting order. Denard Span had that opportunity last season with the Nationals, and led off the starting lineup in style, amassing the sixth-most runs scored and fifth-most stolen bases in the National League. Add a .302 batting average to the mix and the result is an elite 3rd or 4th fantasy outfielder one could not afford to bench in daily leagues. As far as advanced stats go, Span is a rather boring case to dissect – which is actually a good thing, because he’s proven to be quite successful – and consistent – at the plate throughout his career. As a result, It’s not hard for me to bank on him having another 2014-ish season in 2015; he’s scored at least 75 runs and stolen at least 20 bases in every Major League season he’s played that covered over 650 plate appearances. While an abdomen issue kept him out of the field for the first twelve games of the young season, Span found his way out of the Disabled List this past Sunday afternoon, which should immediately make him a must-add in virtually every league. Just remember that you’re picking him up for runs, steals, and average; he almost literally has no power (32 home runs and 314 RBI in 4,001 career plate appearances.)
Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (19.5%)
Besides Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo, and A.J. Pollock, I don’t expect anyone in the Diamondbacks lineup to get any more than 450 at-bats. Both the infield and corner outfield spots – specifically third base and left field – have already been shuffled up so much that Yasmany Tomas, the cuban outfielder who signed a six-year, $68.5 million contract with Arizona this offseason, has seen his initial fantasy value diminish into obscurity. The only position that’s experiencing any consistency is third base, with Jake Lamb and Aaron Hill sharing a traditional platoon. That figures to soon change drastically, much to the advantage of Lamb. First of all, he’s done his part by getting off of a red-hot start, slashing .414/.514/.690 with a homer and 9 RBI. Second of all, he’s managed to offset his relatively weak contact skills with excellent plate discipline, as evidenced by his current 2.0 BB/K ratio. Third of all, Aaron Hill these days just sucks (.188 batting average, 0.17 BB/K ratio, .462 OPS,) and has made a mockery of himself against left-handed pitchers thus far. There’s also the matter of Hill never being 100% healthy and yada-yada-yada, but I don’t want to overwhelm.
The point is this: D-Backs manager Chip Hale will eventually have his hand forced, and Aaron Hill will either be traded in July or demoted to a permanent bench role. On top of that, upside rules the day, and I think Lamb deserves a chance to hit lefties on a daily basis (what is he, 24? C’mon, Chip!) If Lamb continues to draw walks at this pace, he’ll have no problem maintaining a .280-.290 average, and those kind of results could open the door to a plethora of above-average production in various other counting stats. As the only legitimate left-handed threat in the D-Backs lineup, Lamb could possibly be an everyday cleanup or five-hole hitter with a decent chance for 15 homers and 80+ RBI. Worst case scenario here is keeping an eye on him and moving on if his bat falters.
Caleb Joseph, C, Baltimore Orioles
This one’s for all you ankle-deep, teen-team mixed leaguers out there! Thanks to Matt Wieters taking his sweet time nursing his elbow, Caleb Joseph has gotten more than enough playing time in his stead to catch fire. As of this writing, his slash line is a cool .375/.487/.594, and he’s provided a nice balance of runs and RBI from the nine-spot in the Orioles lineup. There’s also some pop here (22 home runs, 97 RBI in AA two years ago,) though Joseph only has one homer to his name this year. Perhaps the biggest thing to take from Joseph’s recent explosion is his ability to get on base and avoid Ks, as his 0.86 BB/K mark ranks among some of the best in baseball right now. Tack on a flyball-heavy batted ball profile (featuring an unsustainable, yet promising 33.3% line drive rate) and what we may have here is a Devin Mesoraco-lite – at least if he’s capable of keeping this up until Wieters gets back.
Other Hitters to Consider: Alejandro De Aza, OF, Baltimore Orioles (38.4%), Brandon Phillips 2B, Cincinnati Reds (35.1%), Rajai Davis, OF, Detroit Tigers (22.9%), Brock Holt, 3B/OF, Boston Red Sox (5.3%), Jake Marisnick, OF, Houston Astros (5.3%), Yonder Alonso, 1B, San Diego Padres (4.0%)
PITCHERS
Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Cincinnati Reds (35.5%)
There seems to be a bit of irony in regards to the initial results of the Mat Latos trade during the offseason. Through the first two weeks of the young season, Anthony DeSclafani, now with the Reds, has performed at a level quite similar to what owners were used to with Latos over the years, while Latos himself, now in Miami, has stumbled out of the gates as hard as I had assumed DeSclafani would. But then again, for all the hard-hit balls and earned runs DeSclafani faced a year ago (6.27 ERA, .330 opp. BABIP,) maybe I shouldn’t have viewed him with so much pessimism. Last season – his first ever in the Majors – saw him put together a 3.77 FIP, 3.80 xFIP, and 3.70 SIERRA behind all the terrible batted ball luck. As a result, his early success in 2015 should have been something we saw coming; not something we should have doubted.
However, the positives don’t stop there with DeSclafani. His pitch sequencing has started to feature more changeups and a little bit less of everything else, as he’s already thrown the pitch more in two 2015 starts than he did in thirteen games (five starts) a season ago. In addition, the increase in usage has left a remarkable impact on his success, as opposing hitters are currently batting .142 off of him so far. Even his K rate has gotten a slight bump, and seeing that his slider usage remains frequent enough to justify the strikeouts entails that DeSclafani may have figured it out in the Bigs. His overall numbers look awesome right now, even despite the fact that his ERA estimators expect a large degree of regression (1.38 ERA, 3.91 xFIP,) but when all is said and done, he should hold considerable value in most leagues. Although he’s still young enough to develop some growing pains, he seems to have learned his craft during Spring Training, and his command is absolutely fantastic (career 1.57 BB/9,) so skeptics will have quite the tough time finding reasons for DeSclafani to fall apart.
Jimmy Nelson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (30.7%)
Like DeSclafani, Jimmy Nelson had quite the hard time putting guys away last season, and also had advanced stats that proved his woes on the mound were not deserving. I could get into the fact that his 2014 ERA was a full run higher than all his other ERA estimators, or develop an explanation for 66.6% strand rate being so far below the league average, but I’m only determined enough to chalk it all up as another extremely unlucky stretch for another up-and-coming youngster. Nelson’s minor league stats profile him as a potential ace in the future, and one of the first steps to reach that level – showcasing consistent control of all pitches – has been taken in the Major Leagues (2.56 career BB/9.) He also fanned batters at an above average clip in 2014, and has currently carried that same success over with an eye-popping 28.6% K rate this year.
Again, like DeSclafani, Nelson has retooled his approach on the mound, which has allowed him to perform at the higher level we’ve been witnessing. The difference between the two pitchers, however, stops when I mention that Nelson has found a new pitch; the knuckle/spike curve. Both pitches (yes, both, as according to Fangraphs, he’s been throwing two different curveballs) have allowed him to take a huge bit out of his platoon splits, while also helping him shut down right-handed hitters with more consistency. Unsurprisingly, the two Uncle Charlies have registered whiffs at an above-average rate, but the real stunner is in the extent to which they generate swings and misses (12.5 SwStr% on knuckle curve, 20.8% on spike curve.)
If he has indeed decided to work them into his repertiore for the foreseeable future, then Nelson appears to finally have the complete package; his sinker’s become an excellent groundball offering, his fastball’s hard enough to keep hitters honest, and the two new curveballs will go a long way towards making his third off-speed pitch – the slider (57.1 K rate, .286 opp. OPS in 2015) – one of the very best in the game. Let’s hope this young gun continues to experiment with his new toys.
Aaron Harang, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (25.7%)
Please, do not mistake Harang being here for me liking him as a fantasy starter; there are sooooo many other starting pitchers I’d rather own in any mixed-league format. The thing about him is that it’s difficult to ignore a strong start, and those who freak out and drop half their fantasy lineups within the first two weeks are usually doing it to pick up players like himself. Please, though; do not mistake me saying that as clearance to drop a Jose Quintana or a Michael Pineda to get Harang! That being said, let’s explore his “torrid” start to the new year:
7.36 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 0.49 HR/9, 1.96 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 3.90 xFIP
About five or six of these peripheral stats figure to remain consistent throughout the course of the year for Harang, as he’s historically been a 7 K/9 guy, and a high 2-low 3 BB/9 guy, and a ridiculously lucky flyball distributor in regards to allowing home runs (45.1% FB rate, 4.3% HR/FB rate in 2015.) The ERA estimators are already screaming for regression, though, and his 84.3% strand rate and .235 BABIP suggests that it’ll come soon. He’s started April with a bang, but the fireworks won’t last forever.
But they don’t have to either, though. I think that, because Harang has recently learned to somehow control his own fate on flyballs (1.04 GB/FB rate, 6.4% HR/FB rate in 2014,) he could remain a viable starting option for another couple weeks or so. Almost like picking up Chris Young in Seattle last season, you could quite honestly get some abbreviated value out of investing in Harang. Again, though, that’s abbreviated value. So, once he begins to tumble, you have to drop him like it’s hot and move on.
Joe Kelly, SP, Boston Red Sox (23.7%)
Joe Kelly’s the most frustrating hard-thrower I’ve ever seen. Blessed with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and a Bugs Bunny curve, he’s spent a large chunk of his career posting ludicrously poor strikeout and walk numbers, while depending heavily on his defense to keep his ERA nice and tidy. He’s never before discovered that “skill” to put guys away on strikes, or limit the base on balls to any extent in his brief MLB career, which makes his 2.13 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 2015 somewhat of a question mark.
But then again, maybe it’s not so hard to find out how he’s gotten off on the right foot…
Kelly’s inability to fan hitters has been primarily because his most frequently used offerings are the ones with the lowest swinging strike and K rates in his arsenal. His slider is not one of those pitches, but he’s been throwing it a lot more now than he ever has. His current 18% usage rate on the pitch is the highest it’s been in any season of his career, and a significant jump from it’s 8% clip a couple years back. One would hope he continues to dish it out, as it currently sports a 71.4%(!) K rate, and 24.2 swinging strike percentage. If he can just throw more changeups (4% usage rate, 33% K rate) and mix his curveball with his fastball pitches more often, we could potentially see a mid-to-high 7 K/9 mark from Kelly.
Control’s still a concern I’m not certain he’s taken care of this early into the season, but there are legitimate changes to his game that may turn him into a mixed-league asset over the following weeks. Of course, we should all err on the side of caution anyway, because his batted ball profile is showcasing a ton of early luck as well.
Chris Heston, SP, San Francisco Giants (22.4%)
Imagine Tim Hudson beginning his career in San Fran other than in the confines of the Colisseum with Oakland, and what you’ll likely get is Chris Heston. A young right-hander with an impressive minor league track record, Heston’s been called up by the Giants to fill in some big boy shoes due to DL trips for both Jake Peavy and Matt Cain. In a starting rotation that consists of Madison Bumgarner and a bunch of has-beens, Heston has shone a bright light thus far. In his 20.2 innings pitched in 2015, Heston has a 16-5 K/BB ratio, with only one homer allowed. Despite an inconceivably low 0.87 ERA, his FIP and xFIP find him regressing into still-solid rates of 2.96 and 3.25, respectively. His 62.1% groundball rate projects glimpses of Greg Maddux in my head, and his curveball has beautifully complimented his mole-killing sinker to the tune of an even 50% K rate. If there was anything worth noting of worry for Heston, it would have to be his fastball velocity, as it has been recorded to be falling off from 93-94 to just over 90 in his three Major League starts. One has to wonder if that’s simply a product of not being in mid-season form, or if Heston doesn’t carry much stamina into games. Nonetheless, he’s stymied everyone he’s faced as of this writing, and seems to be the only one in this Giants rotation not named Madison Bumgarner who could provide standard league fantasy value right now.
Other Pitchers to Consider: A.J. Burnett, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (41.6%,) Brandon McCarthy, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (41.4%,) Drew Pomeranz, SP, Oakland Athletics (33.9%,) Miguel Gonzalez, SP, Baltimore Orioles (23.7%,) Brandon Morrow, SP, San Diego Padres (11.2%,) Jesse Hahn, SP, Oakland Athletics (10.6%,) Jonathan Niese, SP, New York Mets (6.2%,) Odrisamer Despaigne, SP, San Diego Padres (5.4%,) Dan Haren, SP, Miami Marlins (4.5%,) Jeff Locke, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates (4.2%)
