When the expansion application window was announced the NHL and many around the league expected around 4 bids even though they asked a large price. The first was a $500 M expansion fee from any successful application. The Second was a $10 M application fee of which $2 M was not refundable for those who failed. The expected bids were expected to be from Las Vegas, Quebec City, Seattle and the Greater Toronto Area. I’ll take a look at why bids didn’t happen as well as why the bids that did get entered could or could not succeed.
The Missing Bids
Seattle, Washington, USA
Many expected 2 bids from Seattle when the process started with one group wanting a downtown arena to replace the Key Arena and another who wanted to build an arena in Tukwila. The problem is of course that neither building actually exists at this time and are dependent on public money. The downtown arena would need an NBA tenant first to get the arena built and efforts to change it to an NHL first tenant have failed. The Tukwila option probably concerns the NHL because downtown arenas draw better than out of the way ones, look no further than the Coyotes after moving to Glendale and the Senators in Kanata. I don’t think this is the end of the road though while the NHL wouldn’t want to put an expansion team in the Key Arena (which has terrible sight lines for hockey), they may relocate a team there to put pressure to get an arena deal done. Its a nice option to have in their pocket if they do eventually have to move the Coyotes.
The Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, Canada
This is always a big rumoured landing spot for the NHL when ever teams need to move or expansion comes up. While I think that a second team in Toronto would do just fine the issues again come down to an Arena as the only arena in the area that could support an NHL team would probably be the dated FirstOntario Centre (Formerly Copps Colosseum) in Hamilton which seats a reasonable 17,000 people for hockey but opened in 1985. The date of the arena would be a tough sell against cities with brand new arenas who are also bidding. Another option would have been to share the Air Canada Centre with the Maple Leafs but there seems to be no appetite for that. Finally after paying the expansion fee they’d also have to probably pay a significant fee to the Leafs Sabres and Red Wings for being in their territory the precedent for this has been set, the Devils and Ducks made similar payments when they entered the NHL.
The Submitted Bids
Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Potential Arena: MGM-AEG Arena
Seats: 17,500 for hockey.
Expected Opening: April, 2016.
Positives: The Las Vegas expansion bid has just about everything working in its favour. It has a brand new arena opening, it’s geographically in the Western Conference and it has a potential owner with deep pockets enough to pay the $500 M expansion fee. The arena is partially owned by AEG a company owned by Philip Anschutz who owns the Los Angeles Kings and is also a serious Bettman ally on the NHL’s Board of Governors. They sold more season ticket promises than they expected too and the NHL wants to be the first major league to put themselves in Vegas. It feels to me like Expansion was opened for this reason and this reason alone with other bids being an added bonus.
Negatives: Something that most people seem to forget is that people actually live in Vegas (almost 600,000 people), so the team is not trying to solely survive off tourist’s filling the seats. That being said the difference in Vegas to other cities is a large portion of the working population work at night so it would be interesting to see how that would affect attendance numbers. There is also concerns that the team will play its home games to an always hostile environment. Finally lets be honest when people think Hockey, they don’t think Vegas and while the Coyotes have been a huge mess since moving to Glendale, it wasn’t like they were big business in downtown Phoenix either. The Coyotes have never turned a profit which makes people concerned about another team in the desert. Even if the excitement is great off the start will it maintain if the team doesn’t find any immediate traction in the standings? Finally if the NBA follows the NHL into Vegas how will that affect the NHL numbers?
Final Thoughts: The long term success of Vegas is anything but a sure thing but to the NHL the negatives will be vastly out weighed by the positives and I don’t see any chance of this bid not being accepted.
Ian’s Chance of Bid Success: 100%
Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
Potential Arena: Videotron Centre
Seats: 18,259 for hockey.
Expected Opening: September 2015.
Positives: A hockey rabid fan base that has supported its QMJHL league team the Quebec Ramparts very will in the absence of an NHL team. They are going to sell tickets just as fast as the Jets did when they returned to Winnipeg. Deep pocketed ownership group Quebecor whose value is $9.82 Billion and averages $94 Million in yearly profits.
Negatives: The plummeting Canadian Dollar. While the corporate support for team will obviously be stronger there are a lot of factors that remain the same as when the original Nordiques left. Quebec is a small market with out other major cities around it that it can draw fans from. Now many are going to say Quebec City and Las Vegas are the same size but Vegas definitely benefits from its tourism although it can’t bank solely on it. Quebec City is still a mainly francophone area and has had issues in its prior existence like not making addresses in English as well as French. This can’t happen again but with the language politics in Quebec being what they are I’m not sure common sense will prevail in this case which hurts drawing visitor crowds. If the dollar continues it’s downward slide there are going to be a few Canadian Markets that are going to get crunched pretty bad no matter how well they draw. Finally they are geographically in the Eastern Conference which already has 2 more teams than the Western Conference. Now a team in Vegas would keep that discrepancy at two but one would have to expect another realignment needed which could see a team like Columbus return to the west which would only add to their struggles.
Final Thoughts: Quebec City is not the slam dunk that it is made out to be, the falling Canadian dollar should worry the NHL even though the Canadian teams contribute 35% of the leagues revenue. I feel from a PR standpoint the NHL can’t go to Vegas with out going to Quebec as well especially if they want to collect the $1 Billion in expansion feed. Still with all this being said I like their chances of bringing back the Nordiques but being another team in the Eastern Conference is the only thing holding me back from saying its absolutely going to happen.
Ian’s Chance of Bid Success: 80%
