Through the games of November 24th.
1. Duke (7-0)
Best win: Kansas
Worst loss: n/a
Duke not only has the best resume in the ACC, but also has the best resume in the nation. Prior to Maui they already had wins over Belmont, Michigan State and Davidson, and then they went to Hawaii and swept through Tennessee, Michigan and Kansas. If they can get past Ohio State on Tuesday then they’ll have a real shot at entering ACC play undefeated for the 2nd straight season.
Offensively Duke is scoring 1.14 point per possession (PPP), which is solid versus real defenses. Their eFG% is 57.9% and they’ve accomplished that by hitting over 50% of their 2s and 45.9% of their 3s (10th in the nation).
2. North Carolina (4-0)
Best win: Michigan State
Worst loss: n/a
UNC has matched Duke’s offensive performance of 1.14 PPP (though against weaker competition), but they’re really getting it done on the defensive end. They’ve surrendered 0.86 PPP, and are holding opponents to 42.6% on 2s and 27.4% on 3s. UNC is also blocking over 6 shots a game.
At the end of this month UNC will face Wisconsin and Kentucky in back-to-back games. If they’re undefeated after that they’ll likely take over Duke’s #1 spot in this ranking no matter what the Blue Devils do.
3. Florida State (5-0)
Best win: UCF
Worst loss: n/a
It turns out that replacing Derwin Kitchen has been much more difficult than replacing 1st round pick Chris Singleton. The Seminole offense has been bad, barely managing 1.05 PPP, and this is entirely due to their 25.8% turnover percentage, which is 292nd in the country. On the flip side, their defense has been dominant (not counting a one game letdown vs Stetson). Since the 6:10 mark of that Stetson game , FSU opponents have shot 2-52 from 3 (3.8%). FSU led the nation last year in defense eFG% (42.4%) and this year are limiting opponents to 35.7%.
4. NC State (4-1)
Best win: Texas
Worst loss: Vanderbilt
New head coach Mark Gottfried has the Wolfpack playing well, with wins over Texas, Princeton and UNC-Asheville. Their offense hasn’t been elite, but 1.11 PPP is nothing to frown over. The tandem of CJ Leslie and Richard Howell on the interior has been exceptional. If they can find a 3-point shooter to compliment Scott Wood, this could be a Tournament team. Defensively, they haven’t improved over last seasons uninspired version. They are consistently leaving shooters wide open, and so far teams have been able to make them pay (41.2%).
5. Miami (4-0)
Best win: Rutgers
Worst loss: n/a
With the best center in the conference sidelined with an injury, Jim Larranaga’s team has been able to take care of business against passable opponents. North Florida, Tennessee Tech and Rutgers won’t be doing damage in March, but they’re decent. Miami’s high volume guards have been nicely complimented by several roll players: Erik Swoope, Trey Mckinney Jones and Shane Larkin all carry eFG%s north of 50%. Defensively they’re giving up too many offensive boards, but have otherwise been solid.
6. Virginia Tech (3-1)
Best win: East Tennessee State
Worst loss: Syracuse
Seth Greenberg’s team was sluggish in their opener since they were without their PG Erick Green. Since his return they’re averaging 1.16 PPP and only have a loss to an excellent Syracuse team to mar their record. Defensively they’ve been very good. Today’s game with Oklahoma State will be intriguing to watch.
7. Virginia (4-1)
Best win: Drake
Worst loss: TCU
So far, UVA has disappointed. Their problem last season was an offense ranked 145th in the country, but that was without Mike Scott for most of the season. With Mike Scott – and a deeper team around him – the Hoos are ranked 144th in offense. That’s not going to get it done. Their defense, however, has been smothering, and they are only allowing a tiny 0.74 PPP. If they can maintain that level they should at least be able to beat bad teams and play with good teams. But they need an offense.
8. Wake Forest (3-1)
Best win: Loyola (MD)
Worst loss: Dayton
Had Wake Forest knocked off Dayton yesterday it would have been their biggest win since beating Texas two seasons ago. But they faltered at the end. Still, Jeff Bzdelik’s club is showing improvement. Last season their offense and defense were both in the 250 range, and this season have improved by a hundred positions. They won’t be worried about postseason play, but improvement is improvement. Traivs McKie and CJ Harris have both been excellent in the early going.
9. Georgia Tech (4-2)
Best win: VCU
Worst loss: LSU
Georgia Tech has been better than expected, and are seriously getting it done on the defensive end, holding opponents to 0.86 PPP, and St Joe’s is the only school to score more than a point per possession (or even come close). On offense they’re killing themselves with turnovers, coughing it up on 23.6% of their trips. They also don’t have players who can consistently get to the line (311th nationally).
10. Clemson (2-2)
Best win: The Citadel
Worst loss: Coastal Carolina
Clemson has been the most disappointing team in the ACC. Their offense has been bad (1.02 PPP against suspect defenses), and they were unable to hang with the College of Charleston or closeout Coastal Carolina. They haven’t gotten to the line (315th nationally) and when they do they don’t convert (60.7%), which is a recipe for losing to lesser teams. On the defensive side they’ve been solid with the exception of their loss to College of Charleston.
11. Maryland (2-2)
Best win: Colorado
Worst loss: Iona
Maryland and Clemson are a toss-up at this point, but Maryland slips because they’ve been blown out by the two good teams they’ve played. The Terps are turning the ball over on 22.1% of their trips and their shooting has been awful. They’re shooting 30.6% from deep and 59% from the line, and are only scoring 0.96 PPP. On defense, they’re the opposite. They don’t force turnovers and teams have shot lights-out.
12. Boston College (1-3)
Best win: New Hampshire
Worst loss: Holy Cross
A year after Wake’s season of epic failure, BC is looking to challenge them. We all knew BC would be bad, but after squeaking by a terrible New Hampshire team they were promptly rolled by Holy Cross and UMass. While they’re offense hasn’t been good by any means, their defense is the primary culprit. Their last three opponents have averaged 1.20 PPP. Their defensive failures are too many to list.
