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Breaking Down the Brackets: South Region

Posted by on Mar 18, 2014 14:18

Welcome to the new look Run the Floor. To show off the new look, I’ll be taking a look at the NCAA tournament and the South region. That’s not really a new thing to go along with the new look, but we can all pretend that it is. Today I’ll run down the South and the Midwest. Mainly because those regions start play tonight. Let’s take a look at the 17 teams in the South region.

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We will break the teams down a number of ways. There will be the Ken Pom ranking, the conference points per possession and efficiencies offensively and defensively, shooting stats, player stats and of course, the game by game breakdowns. Let’s get right to it.

Ken Pom

  1. 3 – Florida
  2. 9 – Kansas
  3. 12 – VCU
  4. 15 – Syracuse
  5. 16 – UCLA
  6. 18 – Pittsburgh
  7. 19 – Ohio State
  8. 28 – New Mexico
  9. 37 – Stanford
  10. 53 – Dayton
  11. 59 – Stephen F. Austin
  12. 64 – Colorado
  13. 68 – Tulsa
  14. 113 – Western Michigan
  15. 129 – Eastern Kentucky
  16. 177 – Albany
  17. 190 – Mount Saint Mary’s

Ken Pom Offense

  1. 6 – Kansas
  2. 14 – UCLA
  3. 17 – Florida
  4. 18 – Pittsburgh
  5. 30 – Dayton
  6. 34 -Syracuse
  7. 38 – New Mexico
  8. 39 – Stanford
  9. 47 – Stephen F. Austin
  10. 53 – Eastern Kentucky
  11. 95 – Mt St Mary’s
  12. 106 – VCU
  13. 122 – Ohio St
  14. 128 – Western Michigan
  15. 141 – Colorado
  16. 162 – Tulsa
  17. 225 – Albany

Ken Pom Defense

  1. 2 – VCU
  2. 4 – Ohio St
  3. 5 – Florida
  4. 18 – Syracuse
  5. 28 – Tulsa
  6. 32 – Colorado
  7. 37 – Pittsburgh
  8. 38 – New Mexico
  9. 45 – Kansas
  10. 49 – UCLA
  11. 60 – Stanford
  12. 95 – Stephen F. Austin
  13. 101 – Dayton
  14. 119 – Western Michigan
  15. 143 – Albany
  16. 240 – Eastern Kentucky
  17. 287 – Mt St Mary’s

Points per Possession – Offense

  1. 1.19 – Stephen F. Austin
  2. 1.18 – Eastern Kentucky
  3. 1.16 – Kansas
  4. 1.13 – Florida
  5. 1.13 – UCLA
  6. 1.12 – New Mexico
  7. 1.11 – Mt St Mary’s
  8. 1.11 – Pittsburgh
  9. 1.08 – Syracuse
  10. 1.07 – Dayton
  11. 1.07 – Tulsa
  12. 1.07 – Stanford
  13. 1.07 – Western Michigan
  14. 1.05 – Albany
  15. 1.05 – VCU
  16. 1.02 – Ohio St
  17. 1 – Colorado

A bit of a surprise up top with SFA and Eastern Kentucky. You get to the power conference great offenses before the questionable offenses of Syracuse and Ohio State come up. This could be a very interesting region.

Points per Possession – Defense

  1. 0.90 – Tulsa
  2. 0.91 – VCU
  3. 0.92 – Florida
  4. 0.95 – Stephen F. Austin
  5. 0.97 – Ohio St
  6. 0.98 – Albany
  7. 0.98 – New Mexico
  8. 1.01 – W. Michigan
  9. 1.01 – UCLA
  10. 1.01 – Syracuse
  11. 1.02 – Pittsburgh
  12. 1.03 – Colorado
  13. 1.03 – Stanford
  14. 1.04 – Kansas
  15. 1.05 – Dayton
  16. 1.05 – Mt St Mary’s
  17. 1.09 -E. Kentucky

5 absolutely suffocating offenses in their leagues top the list. VCU and SFA could have quite the battle. Tulsa is going to need their defense if they want to upset UCLA.

Offensive Efficiency

  1. 118.8 – Stephen F. Austin
  2. 118.4 – E. Kentucky
  3. 116.5 – Kansas
  4. 112.8 – Florida
  5. 112.8 – UCLA
  6. 112.5 – New Mexico
  7. 110.0 – Mt St Mary’s
  8. 109.7 – Pittsburgh
  9. 107.8 – Syracuse
  10. 107.4 – Dayton
  11. 107.4 – Tulsa
  12. 107.3 – Stanford
  13. 107.3 – W. Michigan
  14. 105 – Albany
  15. 104.8 – VCU
  16. 102.1 – Ohio St
  17. 99.7 – Colorado

Defensive Efficiency

  1. 90.5 – Tulsa
  2. 90.9 -VCU
  3. 91.5 – Florida
  4. 95.1 – SFA
  5. 97 – Ohio St
  6. 98.1 – Albany
  7. 98.4 – New Mexico
  8. 100.5 – Syracuse
  9. 101 – W. Michigan
  10. 101.1 – UCLA
  11. 101.7 – Pittsburgh
  12. 102.6 – Colorado
  13. 103.5 – Stanford
  14. 103.6 – Kansas
  15. 105.2 – Dayton
  16. 105.4 – Mt St Mary’s
  17. 109.4 – E. Kentucky

I included the efficiencies mainly because I used them as a tiebreaker for the points per possession. Efficiencies are the points per 100 possessions.

Effective FG % (weighs 3 pointers)

  1. 59.6 – E. Kentucky
  2. 55 – Kansas
  3. 54.4 – W. Michigan
  4. 53.9 – Florida
  5. 53.9 – SFA
  6. 52.8 – New Mexico
  7. 52.5 – UCLA
  8. 52.1 – Mt St Mary’s
  9. 51.1 – Dayton
  10. 49.9 – Stanford
  11. 49.9 – Pittsburgh
  12. 49.7 – Tulsa
  13. 49.5 – Albany
  14. 48.2 – Ohio St
  15. 47.4 – VCU
  16. 46.9 – Colorado
  17. 45.3 – Syracuse

A reason some people think the Broncos can pull the upset is because they are a pretty good shooting team while Syracuse is the worst in the region. Worse than two 16 seeds. Ohio State and VCU are noted for their poor shooting as well. That would be a major pain for the Rams potentially going up against UCLA or Florida.

Defensive eFG%

  1. 43.8 – Tulsa
  2. 44.5 – New Mexico
  3. 45.4 – Florida
  4. 45.7 – VCU
  5. 47.1 – W. Michigan
  6. 47.8 – Kansas
  7. 47.8 – Syracuse
  8. 47.9 – Albany
  9. 48.2 – Pittsburgh
  10. 48.4 – Ohio St
  11. 49.3 – Colorado
  12. 49.7 – SFA
  13. 50 – Stanford
  14. 50.2 – Dayton
  15. 50.4 – Mt St Mary’s
  16. 51.2 – UCLA
  17. 57 – E. Kentucky

Kansas is a legit threat to score 100 against EKU.

Free Throw %

  1. 76.7 – E. Kentucky
  2. 76.6 – Mt St Mary’s
  3. 75.3 -UCLA
  4. 73.4 – Kansas
  5. 73 – Albany
  6. 72.8 – SFA
  7. 72.7 – W. Michigan
  8. 71.9 – Syracuse
  9. 71.1 – Colorado
  10. 70.8 – New Mexico
  11. 70.4 – Tulsa
  12. 70.2 – Stanford
  13. 69.9 – Dayton
  14. 69.1 – Ohio St
  15. 69 – Pittsburgh
  16. 68.1 – VCU
  17. 67.3 – Florida

If there is an Achilles heel for VCU and Florida going out early, you are looking at it.

Offensive Rebounding %

  1. 40.8 – SFA
  2. 38 – Kansas
  3. 37.3 – Syracuse
  4. 36.1 – VCU
  5. 36 – Pittsburgh
  6. 34.6 – Albany
  7. 33.6 – Florida
  8. 33.2 – W. Michigan
  9. 32.9 – Dayton
  10. 32.6 – Colorado
  11. 31.7 – Tulsa
  12. 30.9 – Mt St Mary’s
  13. 30.4 – New Mexico
  14. 30.1 – Stanford
  15. 29.3 – UCLA
  16. 28.2 – Ohio St
  17. 23.8 – E. Kentucky

Defensive Rebounding %

  1. 72.6 – SFA
  2. 72.5 – UCLA
  3. 72.3 – Albany
  4. 72.3 – New Mexico
  5. 72.2 – Tulsa
  6. 71.9 – Colorado
  7. 71.8 – Stanford
  8. 71.4 – Kansas
  9. 71.1 – Florida
  10. 70.9 – Dayton
  11. 70.1 – Ohio St
  12. 69.6 – Pittsburgh
  13. 69.7 – VCU
  14. 67.6 – Syracuse
  15. 67.1 – W. Michigan
  16. 66.6 – Mt St Mary’s
  17. 66.3 – E. Kentucky

Yeah, Kansas might definitely break 100. UCLA’s rebounding looks to be a major advantage over Tulsa in round 1. The same for Colorado if they can keep Pittsburgh off the offensive glass.

Turnover % – Offense

  1. 13.7 – Syracuse
  2. 14.8 – UCLA
  3. 15 – New Mexico
  4. 16.5 – Stanford
  5. 17 – E. Kentucky
  6. 17 – Mt St Mary’s
  7. 17 – Tulsa
  8. 17.2 – Pittsburgh
  9. 17.4 – Ohio St
  10. 17.6 – VCU
  11. 17.7 – Florida
  12. 17.7 – SFA
  13. 18.4 – Dayton
  14. 18.7 – Kansas
  15. 19.9 – Colorado
  16. 20.6 – Albany
  17. 22.8 – W. Michigan

Turnover % – Defense

  1. 24.3 – E. Kentucky
  2. 23.9 – SFA
  3. 23.5 – VCU
  4. 22 – Florida
  5. 21.8 – Tulsa
  6. 21 – Ohio St
  7. 20.2 – UCLA
  8. 19.6 – Albany
  9. 19.2 – Syracuse
  10. 19 – Mt St Mary’s
  11. 19 – Pittsburgh
  12. 18.9 – W. Michigan
  13. 18 – Dayton
  14. 17.9 – Stanford
  15. 17.1 – Colorado
  16. 16.2 – Kansas
  17. 14.5 – New Mexico

Something I neglected to include was tempo. This could play a big part in some of these games. The tournament is all about styles. The Stephen F. Austin / VCU game features a couple of defenses that have turned people over like crazy. That has the potential to be a lower scoring affair.

Let’s look at some of the top players. These stats are from the entire season, not just conference play. Keep that in mind.

Top 17 Scorers – Season

  1. 20.3 – Cameron Bairstow, New Mexico
  2. 19.4 – David Brown, WMU
  3. 18.8 – Glenn Cosey, EKU
  4. 18.7 – Chasson Randle, Stanford
  5. 17.7 – Rashad Whack, MSM
  6. 17.6 – Lamar Patterson, Pittsburgh
  7. 17.4 – Julian Norfleet, MSM / Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
  8. 17.2 – Jordan Adams, UCLA
  9. 16.7 – CJ Fair, Syracuse
  10. 16.4 – Kendall Williams, New Mexico
  11. 16.3 – Shayne Whittington, WMU
  12. 15.7 – James Woodard, Tulsa / Treveon Graham, VCU
  13. 15.7 – Peter Hooley, Albany
  14. 15.4 – LaQuinton Ross, Ohio St
  15. 14.9 – Kyle Anderson, UCLA
  16. 14.3 – Desmond Haymon, SFA
  17. 14.2 – Jacob Parker, SFA / Dwight Powell, Stanford / Casey Prather, Florida

Top 10 3 Pointers Made – Season

  1. 110 – Glenn Cosey, EKU
  2. 107 – Michael Frazier II, Florida
  3. 86 – Trevor Cooney, Syracuse
  4. 81 – Rashad Whack, MSM
  5. 79 – Deshaunt Walker, SFA
  6. 78 – David Brown, WMU
  7. 77 – Lamar Patterson, Pittsburgh
  8. 75 – Jordan Siebert, Dayton
  9. 69 – Peter Hooley, Albany
  10. 66 – Melvin Johnson, VCU

Top 10 Rebounders

  1. 292 – Kyle Anderson, UCLA
  2. 289 – Josh Scott, Colorado / Talib Zanna, Pittsburgh
  3. 287 – Juvonte Reddic, VCU
  4. 275 – Josh Huestis – Stanford
  5. 273 – Shayne Whittington, WMU
  6. 271 – Alex Kirk, New Mexico
  7. 248 – Devin Oliver, Dayton
  8. 243 – Cameron Bairstow, New Mexico
  9. 238 – Treveon Graham, VCU
  10. 234 – Jacob Parker, SFA

Top 10 Assists

  1. 217 – Kyle Anderson, UCLA
  2. 178 – Tyler Ennis, Syracuse
  3. 174 – Julian Norfleet, MSM
  4. 165 – Naadir Tharpe, Kansas
  5. 163 – Kendall Williams, New Mexico
  6. 160 – Aaron Craft, Ohio St
  7. 146 – Lamar Patterson, Pittsburgh
  8. 139 – Glenn Cosey, EKU
  9. 134 – James Robinson, Pittsburgh
  10. 128 – Briante Weber, VCU

Top 5 Blocks

  1. 85 – Alex Kirk, New Mexico
  2. 72 – Joel Embiid, Kansas
  3. 62 – Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse
  4. 60 – Josh Huestis, Stanford / Amir Williams, Ohio St
  5. 51 – Brandon Swannegan, Tulsa

Top  5 Steals

  1. 115 – Briante Weber, VCU
  2. 90 – Jordan Adams, UCLA
  3. 85 – Aaron Craft, Ohio St
  4. 73 – Corey Walden, EKU
  5. 69 -Shannon Scott, Ohio St

Starting with the bottom category, you have 3 of the top players at creating steals in the nation. Weber is #1 if you couldn’t guess.

Also, Kyle Anderson is very good at basketball.

Let’s break down the matchups for this region.

March 18

16) Albany vs 16) Mount St Mary’s – 6:40 PM

Line: Albany -2.5

Albany looks like the pick here. MSM was a .500 team on the season. They, as well as Albany, sprung some major upsets in their conference tournament. The Great Danes are my pick just because I don’t really know much about either team and Great Danes is a better name than Mountaineers.

March 20

Orlando, Florida

8) Colorado vs 9) Pittsburgh – 1:40 PM – TBS
Line: Pittsburgh -5.5
The Panthers seem like the choice here. Colorado hasn’t really played well since the Spencer Dinwiddie injury. The Panthers looked the best they had in a while in the ACC tournament. That is definitely a case of recency bias. I do like the Panthers here, even though I’m sure I said on twitter I would not pick them to win a game.
Pittsburgh 65 Colorado 56
1) Florida vs 16) Albany – 4:10 – TBS
The only question is by how much.
Florida 76 Albany 48
Buffalo, New York
6) Ohio State vs 11) Dayton – 12:15 – CBS
Line: Ohio State – 6
The Ohio schools that don’t play for some reason, *cough because Ohio State won’t play them cough* meet up in the beautiful city of Buffalo. Dayton is led by former Buckeye Jordan Siebert. I do like this Dayton team, but I’m not sure I like this matchup for them. Do they have enough defense to keep the Buckeyes from pulling ahead and clamping down with that defense? I don’t think so.
Ohio State 69 Dayton 60
3) Syracuse vs 14) Western Michigan – 2:45 – CBS
Line: Syracuse -12.5
Many people are picking this as an upset game. I just don’t see it. Maybe I’m giving Syracuse too much credit. I don’t really think this will be close at all. This is where you circle this for the famous last words potion of the article.
Syracuse 75 Western Michigan 55
March 21
St Louis, Missouri
7) New Mexico vs 10) Stanford – 1:40 – TBS
Line: New Mexico -3.5
I really like the Lobos a lot more than I like Stanford. This of course means that Stanford is going to win the game.
Stanford 71 New Mexico 68
2) Kansas vs 15) Eastern Kentucky – 4:10 – TBS
Line: Kansas – 15
The over under on this game is 147.5. I just called for Kansas to score 100 so I will not back off from my lofty prediction. EKU has given up 75, 75, 71, 85, 77, 84, 86 and 72 in their losses. I’m feeling good about this one.
Kansas 101 Eastern Kentucky 74
San Diego, California
5) VCU vs 12) Stephen F. Austin – 7:27 – TruTV
Line: VCU -6
I don’t expect a ton of points in this one with the pace of SFA and the defenses of both squads. I would not be surprised to see the upset. Not because I really believe in the Lumberjacks, but because if VCU isn’t hitting shots, they can’t set up the press and they are surprisingly vulnerable. I see them winning but not by much.
VCU 63 Stephen F Austin 61
4) UCLA vs 13) Tulsa – 9:57 – TruTV
Line: UCLA -9.5
This is a dangerous UCLA team. They were one of my sleeper teams for the tournament even before they won the Pac 12 tournament. I wish they got a better draw because this team can really play. The Golden Hurricanes could provide a stylistic challenge for them. In the end, I think UCLA is just too talented.
UCLA 79 Tulsa 63

About Scott

I write Bearcats Blog and also on the Student Section.

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