Note: I am going off the assumption that pretty much everybody who is any risk at all to leave will leave:
1. Duke
A group of teams will be virtually identical at the top, but I am taking the Blue Devils right away. They will be led by Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones, but they’ll have a nice group of veterans around them as well.
2. Wisconsin
The Badgers will return virtually everyone other than Ben Brust (note: If Kaminsky does leave, which I don’t expect, this knocks them down a few spots) from a team that was a prayer three pointer away from playing for the national title. Once again the Badgers will have the smarts and experience Bo Ryan loves, but they’ll also have athleticism.
3. Kansas
The Jayhawks lose Andrew Wiggins and in all likelihood Joel Embiid, but they get wing Kelly Oubre and Cliff Alexander, who I think is the best recruit in the class. If Naadir Tharpe improves even more, the Jayhawks could make it to the Final Four.
4. Arizona
A lot of people have the Wildcats at the top, but I think Nick Johnson was more important to the team than he is getting credit for. They’ll have to replace Aaron Gordon as well who, despite some struggles offensively, was probably their best defender.
5. Florida
The Gators lose a group of Seniors that leaves Gainesville as one of the most accomplished classes in NCAA history, but they’ll get a lot of improvement out of guys like Kasey Hill, Chris Walker, and Dorian Finney-Smith.
6. Kentucky
The Wildcats will be loaded in the frontcourt assuming Alex Poythress, Marcus Lee, and Dakari Johnson don’t make surprising decisions to go pro.
7. North Carolina
Marcus Paige returns to Chapel Hill, and joining him will be a top 3 recruiting class including elite wing Theo Pinson.
8. Virginia
They’re losing two big pieces in Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, but that’s it.
9. Villanova
The only major rotation player leaving is James Bell, and while Villanova lost in the second round, they only lost 4 games all season.
10. Wichita State
We’ll see how valuable Cleanthony Early’s presence inside was (my guess: very) but they return a highly efficient group of guys around him. With more work to do, that efficiency should go down a bit next year, but the Shockers will roll through the Valley and should get the benefit of the doubt in the NCAA tournament
11. SMU
12. UConn
13. Louisville
14. Texas
15. Oklahoma
16. VCU
17. Michigan
18. Maryland
19. Gonzaga
20. Baylor
21. Iowa
22. Nebraska
23. Ohio State
24. Colorado
25. UCLA
