The Sweet 16 is finally here, and even though Duke, Kansas, and North Carolina are all out, there are still quite a few compelling teams and games remaining. Below I rank the 8 games in the Sweet 16 using a highly scientific* method based on future pros, seniors who could be playing in their last college game, pace, star players, and whether your team knocked my team out (looking at you, Stanford)
*not highly scientific
(11) Dayton v. (10) Stanford – South
This game would have been last anyways, but having to watch Stanford instead of being able to watch Kansas is one injustice too far. Either way, Dayton doesn’t have the size to match up with Stanford on the inside, and while Stanford didn’t make a three against Kansas, I don’t think Dayton will be lucky enough to have their opponent go without a made 3 for a second game in a row. Dayton will no doubt have seen what the Kansas press did to Stanford, and will likely have some tricks up their sleeve, but in the end I think Stanford has a little bit too much size and athleticism for the Flyers.
(6) Baylor v. (2) Wisconsin – West
Wisconsin struggled against Oregon, while Baylor has blown away Nebraska and Creighton. Should be easy pickings for the Bears here, right? Baylor also shot 60% from three in the win over Creighton and its two NCAA tournament opponents have shot a combined 9-45 from beyond the arc, so assuming those two numbers regress a bit this one should be a lot closer.
Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country at not turning it over, and if Baylor stays in that zone all game, Wisconsin should get their fair share of offensive rebounds as well. Pace might be an issue, as both the Bears and Badgers play fairly slowly offensively, but they both score points efficiently, so get ready for a game in the 60s with each team scoring over a point per trip and still having to hear the words “defensive battle.”
(3) Iowa State v. (7) Connecticut – East
It is interesting that for how much I was touting a potential Shabazz Napier vs. DeAndre Kane matchup, I’m for some reason not as thrilled about this contest as I should be. Maybe it’s because we were so close to Marcus Paige vs. Shabazz. Either way, I doubt Napier will guard Kane because of how well Kane posts up, which lessens the anticipation a bit.
Fred Hoiberg has cemented himself as one of the bright young coaches in the game, and a possible frontrunner for a number of NBA jobs, including the Timberwolves, after the season. Though he will be without Georges Niang due to his broken foot, I think the Cyclones still have enough to move on to the Elite 8. Though if there were one player I’d want to try to pull the upset, it would be Napier.
(11) Tennessee v. (2) Michigan – Midwest
Tennessee, though an 11 seed, is a slight favorite in this one at KenPom. I don’t forsee them pulling the, uh, upset? in this one though. Michigan has the best offense remaining in the tournament, and can score in a variety of ways. They bomb away from three, and shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc, they score efficiently inside, and though they don’t get to the line often, they shoot 76% there as a team, giving them a huge edge in close games.
Defensively, Michigan has struggled this year. They don’t put teams on the line often, but they also allow opponents to shoot almost 50% from two, and they really struggle at both forcing turnovers and grabbing defensive rebounds. That Tennessee isn’t a huge team bodes well for Michigan, and I don’t think they’ll have enough to stop Stauskas.
(4) UCLA v. (1) Florida – South
The Bruins outnumber the Gators in terms of future pros, so for that reason alone maybe there is a reason to pick the upset. Florida has been great defensively all year though, and even though the Bruins offense is underrated, I’m not sure it’s good enough to score enough on the Gators. One thing UCLA can do, however, is pose some matchup problems. Florida has a lot of really good individual defenders, but I’m not sure they have someone who can guard Kyle Anderson, who stands 6’9″, yet shoots almost 40% from three and leads the Bruins in assist rate.
Similarly, I don’t think UCLA has anyone who can stop Patric Young down low. The Wear twins are 6’10”, but are more finesse guys, and the Bruins won’t want Anderson in foul trouble. I’m still not sure, as good as his stats have been this year, I trust Scottie Wilbekin to lead a team to a title, but I don’t think the Bruins pull the upset here.
(1) Arizona v. (4) San Diego State – West
A rematch of a big Arizona road win back in November, this game features maybe the two best defenses left in the tournament. Xavier Thames has carried the Aztecs thus far, and he’ll need another monumental effort to get them over the hump against the Wildcats here. I think we will see both teams allowing the opposing offense to take as many jumpshots as they want, so this one could come down to a game of who is luckier from the outside.
One potential twist to look at: if one team is up by quite a few late in the game, it still isn’t necessarily over, because both teams are abysmal at the free throw line. SDSU is making just 67% of its free throws, and Arizona is even worse at 65.5% If it starts getting out of hand early, the team falling into a big hole might employ the same method St. Louis used to come back against NC State, when they began fouling with roughly 10 minutes left. Might I suggest fouling Aaron Gordon, who shoots just 43% from the line.
(8) Kentucky v. (4) Louisville – Midwest
Kentucky finally turned it on a bit to beat Wichita State, but they have been fairly fortunate to get the path to the Sweet 16 that they’ve gotten. Now they face Lousiville, a team that will draw all of the Cats’ attention; good news for Kentucky.
Perhaps bad news for Louisville though, as the most underseeded team in the tournament has to face its fiercest rival in the Sweet 16. Are Louisville underseeded, though? We’ve seen what they can do to the dregs of the AAC, but they struggled against Manhattan and, though they won by 15, weren’t entirely convincing against St. Louis. Louisville didn’t exactly wow anyone against the other top teams in the AAC, and they already have a loss to Kentucky this year.
The most fun matchup in this one, to me, is Julius Randle vs. Montrezl Harrell. A couple of future pros who already have NBA bodies get to go nuts in the paint. Ultimately, though, this game misses out on being #1 for a couple reasons: first, I still don’t know how good either team is. Kentucky might revert to being the team that lost to South Carolina, or Louisville might be a bit of a mirage. Second, I don’t really care about the rivalry. Sorry, guys. Lastly, though I think Russ Smith is an amazing player, and deserving of a first team All-America nod, his offense, which consists of barrelling into the lane and drawing fouls, doesn’t really do much for me.
(4) Michigan State v. (1) Virginia – East
Though Virginia struggled in their first round matchup, they might be my current choice to win it all (or would be if Kansas and Syracuse didn’t conspire to hand Florida an easy path to the Final Four). Malcolm Brogdon has really come on strong lately, London Perrantes has hit some big threes, and of course they still have Joe Harris, who still might be the most underrated scorer in the nation.
Harris’s impact in this one will no doubt be lessened by Michigan State being able to employ Gary “I always want to call you Gary Bell” Harris. Harris gets most of his attention for his offense, but has been a phenomenal wing defender for the Spartans this year. The onus could be on the secondary scorers to step up in this one, if Harris can take Harris out of the game.
Virginia is one of the biggest teams left, and though they don’t have one main rim protector, they have a lot of length on the perimeter, and as such the Spartans will have to heavily rely on Adriean Payne down low. Payne is shooting 55% from two, 44% from three, and is the best defensive rebounder on an elite defensive rebounding team.
This game matches an elite offense with an elite defense, but I think the outcome will hinge on what happens in the backcourt. Keith Appling has struggled with his wrist for a large portion of the season, but if that wrist is 100%, and Izzo can play him as much as he’d like, he should give the Spartans a big boost. I’m going to take Virginia, but this should be the best game of the next two days.
