After a wild first day of NCAA tournament action, Friday has a lot to live up to, but if it does we could have the best first two days of the tournament in the last 5-10 years. Fortunately, there are a lot of appetizing games on tap. Here are my top 5:
1. Kentucky vs. Kansas State (9:40 ET, CBS)
If this game were in Manhattan, Kansas State would be an overwhelming favorite (of course, they’d be in the Final Four hunt if the tournament were in Manhattan) but the Wildcats have struggled away from home. The, uh, other Wildcats, meanwhile, are coming off their second straight disappointing regular season. With K State’s lack of size down low, Kentucky should be able to dump it in to Julius Randle all night, and he and Willie Cauley Stein should be able to feast on the offensive glass.
A big key will be how well the Harrison twins can defend Marcus Foster up top. Foster had a lot of hype going into Big 12 play, but as the season progressed his level of play began to match that hype, giving Kansas State a threat up top.
I am picking Kentucky in this one, thanks mostly to their rebounding edge. Kansas State survives offensively only thanks to offensive rebounds, and while Kentucky isn’t elite on the defensive glass, they’re good enough to limit Kansas State to plenty one and dones.
2. VCU vs. Stephen F. Austin (7:27 ET, TruTV)
Quick, find TruTV! The Lumberjacks haven’t lost a game since November, but KenPom gives them just a 28% chance to win this one. Expect quite a few turnovers in this one, as tonight’s game pits the best team in the country at forcing turnovers (VCU) against the third best. There is a reason to believe the Lumberjacks could pull the upset, though. VCU is underwhelming in the halfcourt, allowing opponents to shoot 48.5% from two (although some of that does come from the easy layups that come from breaking a press) and they’re just OK on the defensive glass. SFA, meanwhile, really likes to slow it down on offense. They take over 20 seconds per offensive possession, which is one of the slowest in the country. If they can do that consistently tonight, we might have yet another 12/5 upset.
3. Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma State (4:40 ET, TNT)
Oklahoma State is one of the hotter names coming into the tournament, even though they lost in the conference tournament quarterfinals, but Gonzaga is actually a slight favorite in this one in KenPom. Kevin Pangos has struggled with injuries, but the key offensively for the Zags seemingly will be to get 7’1″ Przemek Karnowski the ball as much as possible. If Gonzaga can get LeBryan Nash and Kamari Murphy into foul trouble, the Cowboys become very thin inside very quickly.
Gonzaga is stout inside defensively, but allows their fair share of free throws. Given his reputation, Marcus Smart should live at the free throw line this afternoon. If that isn’t working, Markel Brown and Phil Forte are one of the better outside shooting duos in the nation, and LeBryan Nash has quietly had his most efficient season.
Gonzaga has dominated some smaller WCC teams inside, so in some ways it’s fortunate they get a smallish, and certainly not deep, Oklahoma State team to start with. Still, Markel Brown is one of the most underrated players in the country, if not the most underrated, and I like his ability to dominate on both ends on the perimeter, so I think the Cowboys take a semi-close one.
4. Creighton vs. UL Lafayette (3:10 ET, TruTV)
One of the few games that has potential/probable NBA first rounders on both sides, Creighton and Lafayette might play a closer game than you’d think. Everyone knows about McDermott, but Lafayette’s Elfrid Payton has had a great season for the Cajuns. He’s struggled with his jumper, but is still shooting 53.5% due to his size, quickness, and ability to get to the rim. He has really improved his point guard skills over the last couple seasons as well, cutting his TO rate from 31.1% as a Freshman to just 19.8% as a Junior. With a 32.7% assist rate to back that up, Creighton certainly won’t be overlooking him today.
Still, I don’t see Lafayette pulling the upset. They have just one guy taller than McDermott, meaning he will be able to post up even the bigger guys who guard him, and he can obviously take them outside as well. He’s just too much of a matchup nightmare for a mid-major team, thanks to him shooting 56% from two and 45% from deep. He’s been the best player in the country all season, and this game probably should have been 1st on the list so we make sure we watch McDermott as much as possible.
5. North Carolina vs. Providence (7:20 ET, TNT)
The main thing I am watching for is if Bryce Cotton will ever get tired. He leads the nation in minutes played this year, playing in over 96% of the Friars’ minutes this season. 96%! It hasn’t affected his play either, as he’s shooting 37% from deep, has a 34.3% assist rate, and a 13.4% turnover rate. He’s quite possibly the most valuable player in the country, and I can’t wait to see him square off against Marcus Paige.
Speaking of Paige, he’s played in about 88% of the Heels’ minutes, so he’s no slouch in that department. He’s also shooting 39% from three and almost 50% from two. He’s not a great passer, but he’s so crafty at getting into the lane and getting good looks from deep , which is what the Heels need.
The Heels will also probably need a steady diet of James McAdoo. He has been a pretty poor shooter this year, but he has gone to the line a lot, and is 29th in fouls drawn per 40 minutes this year. The Friars, though, have the size to match Carolina inside, and have been pretty good at not allowing opponents to get to the line this year. McAdoo might have to do his damage from the field, which means we could be seeing a bit more from Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks, two more efficient scorers. I think I am taking the Heels in this one, but a Providence upset won’t shock me.
