The funniest and most frustrating part of the NCAA tournament is when people use three weeks (or in this case, two weeks) of single elimination 40 minute basketball games to completely erase everything from the previous four months. Kentucky shot 31.9% from three in SEC play, good for 11th in the league, but because they shot 44.4% against Wichita State, and 63.6% in their Elite 8 win over Michigan, America has to deal with headlines that are as shoddily written as “Deal with it, America” or we have to hear about how all of a sudden the SEC is fantastic and not just a pile of garbage propped up by one great team, one talented team, and one good but inconsistent team. Tennessee was definitely good, but also benefited from getting UMass and Mercer in their first two games. Likewise, Kentucky was very talented all year, but what better route to the final four than a Wichita State team we’re still unsure of, their biggest rival, and a team that Kentucky could take advantage of down low.
Arizona, as great as they were all season, were probably doomed from the start. How could a team that attempts over 40% of its field goals from mid range make those consistently enough for 5 games in a row? And indeed they didn’t, struggling all night in their Elite 8 loss to Wisconsin (even though it was ultimately their defense that let them down the most.)
Of course, injuries are a huge factor as well. Consider Kansas, who lost perhaps the most talented player in the country for the first weekend of the tournament. They made just a third of their layups against Stanford in their second round loss. I imagine having a guy who shot 64% from two would have helped that cause a little bit.
Before the tournament started, the Final Four teams ranked 3rd, 11th, 17th and 25th in KenPom. Hardly a murderer’s row. We always say how important matchups and location are, and this year it rings truer than ever with how close the teams were in quality. UConn, a 7 seed, got to practically host a Sweet 16 game against a 3 seed and an Elite 8 game against a popular title pick. Baylor, a 6 seed, got to play Creighton in Texas in the second round. (the list goes on and on, but in the interest of brevity I’ll stop).
UConn was swept by SMU. Does that mean SMU should have been in the tournament? (no, as people have rightly said). If four wins from UConn don’t change that, why do they change how we evaluate UConn’s entire season. Is Kentucky all of a sudden good now because they have a four game winning streak at the right time, or are they still the team that lost to Arkansas, LSU, and South Carolina? (the best answer, of course, is that they’re probably not that team anymore, but certainly not one of the best four teams in the country this year either.)
Consider this money quote from TSN’s Mike Decourcy via the above linked piece:
Whereas the Harrison twins combined for 20 points, six assists and execution of the dribble handoff play that produced Aaron’s game-winning 3-pointer, Michigan State senior point guard Keith Appling fouled Shabazz Napier twice on jump shots in the Spartans’ loss to UConn and 6-10 senior center Adreian Payne attempted 10 of his 14 field goals from 3-point range.
First of all, Payne shot 42% from three this year, so any three he can take he probably should, not to mention the fact that he has to rely on other players to get him the ball if he’s going to score inside. Secondly, the Harrison twins combined to shoot 7-20 from the field, and had 5 turnovers to go with their six assists. Had they lost the game, no doubt scribes everywhere would be saying how Freshmen aren’t mature and experienced enough to win when it counts. But by highlighting a play that produced a game winning three, we are beyond valuing four games above an entire season and instead are valuing one play above an entire season. (oh and p.s. Shabazz Napier, who drew those fouls? No doubt used his Senior leadership, right?)
I don’t have much of a closer in this one, because the narratives surrounding the NCAA tournament are absolutely insane. Good players are good players, whether they are Freshmen, Sophomores, Juniors, or Seniors. What happens in the NCAA tournament doesn’t invalidate an entire season. Location, matchups, and luck all have more to do with who makes the Final Four than who the best teams are. Repeat that mantra over and over and you’ll know more than 95% of the people out there.
