Thoughts and advice on the players who are starting but not performing up to expectations. This week’s edition deals with Russell Wilson, Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, Gurley, Coby Fleener, the Seattle RB’s, Demaryius Thomas, OBJ
Old Business
Russell Wilson: Wait some more
Although most of the production seemed like it was on the ground, this Seattle offense is showing signs of life. Russell’s ankle/ knee isn’t keeping him out of practice. This week the Seahawks are playing the Jets. A defense that will funnel them to the pass and has allowed big weeks to Tyrod and Dalton. I would start him this week and I think you’ll be happy with the result.
Latavius Murray: Wait no more
It’s time to move Latavius while he is still scoring a TD every week and, at a glance, his numbers look decent. The fact that he is getting red zone work and making good on it is a credit to him, but according to kplayerprofiler.com his opportunity share, which is his share of the team’s RB carries and targets, is 45.6%, ranking 33rd in the league. It is accurate to say almost all RB’s in today’s NFL are in some sort of time-share. It’s not accurate to say they’re all alike. This one stinks for Murray owners. Jeremy Hill, Mr. Timeshare Headache, gets 54.5%. The leader is Deangelo Williams, getting upwards of 90%.
I think you can package Latavius up with a WR3 like Crabtree or Odell Beckham (that’s a joke) and get a low-end RB1 like Isaiah Crowell.
Devonta Freeman: I Hate Waiting
If you took Freeman in the 2nd round, which a lot of people did, then you’re hating this. The Falcons RB role, which thrust Freeman into fantasy stardom is decisively split, and so far Coleman seems to have the better half. To my eyes Freeman looks better. He looks faster, and he’s a lot more shifty. He adds value to more of his runs, creating more than what’s blocked. Unfortunately, I don’t think that you’ll get much if you try to trade him away. On the other hand, both Coleman and Freeman are an injury away from being in that wonderful position that would make an RB1, easily, if consolidated. So I think you just wait for that to happen. Injuries are a cold reality, especially for the running back position in the NFL.
Conversely, if you can find a Freeman owner who is tilting, as I might be in this situation, try to buy low. At this point in the season you’re starting to get a picture of the guys on your roster that are unlikely to get a start. Package up a couple of them and try to get a discount on this lottery ticket who has shown he can do it. To be clear, it needs to be a very big discount. Don’t leave yourself starting Freeman.
Todd Gurley: Keep Waiting
Gurley owners rejoice, he still has “it”. The Tampa Bay defense is absolutely awful, but they capitalized. The big question is how many games will there be this season where the Rams are up enough to feed Gurley 27 carries. It’s not time for a victory lap. It’s not vindication for taking Gurley as a high round draft pick. I don’t think we really know what this Rams team is yet, and although hating Keenum is a fun and popular hobby I’m not sure it’s all deserved.
After his first good game of the season I don’t think his value has rebounded to the point that anyone is going to give you
a player who was also taken in the first round in a trade. I would need to get Allen Robinson or better to let go of Gurley at this point. .
Coby Fleener: Breathe a sigh of relief, and Wait
He finally did it! Unless you took my advice and picked up Pitta and in that case, you’re the only person who’s upset about having Pitta! If you who held onto your Fleener shares this long, you don’t need to be told to continue to hold. However, I don’t think his value will be sufficiently established to cash in on a trade until he does it again, and at that point what value are you really getting for a TE? The question that Fleener owners need to be facing is whether or not what they have is better than replacement value, and last week it was.
The Seattle RB’s
Thomas Rawls: Hate
Still hatin’. Rawls owners have to admit that the last thing you want when your guy is out is for the backup to have a game like Michael just did. I would take pennies
(Terrell Pryor) on the dollar at this point.
Christine Michael: Wait for the gravy train to run its course.
While I would like to believe that the true competition ethos is alive and well
In Seattle, I have to admit that Rawls eventual return is a rain cloud on the horizon. When trying to move him people will adjust his price accordingly. If you own C Mike, you just ride it out. You took him so late that this is all just bonus, and who knows, it could be his job.
Demaryius Thomas: Hate
While Demaryius did catch a big pass late, that accounted for over half of his production on the day. This was an unusual game wherein the Bengals were able to stifle the Broncos’ run game, forcing them to pass, and then allowing that thing they were daring them to do to beat them.
This week against the Buccs they’ll be able to run, and if that’s true you won’t see Siemian open up the passing game like he did this week. Siemian appears to me as an Alex Smith type, who’s not going to fling it all over the field. Even though it may be that they may have that ability in their arsenal. I would be willing to accept Riddick or even Jordan Howard, who I really believe is coming into an opportunity he will make the most of.
New Business
OBJ: Wait
This offense is just different. OBJ is still OBJ. He is getting double digit targets and is getting open. He’s still demanding a 28% share of the targets in New York. Clearly, he is still the best WR on this team. The problem is that there are other weapons around him and the TD’s in this pass attack have been a little sparse with Eli only throwing 4 (16th in the league) through 3 games. If he gets into the red zone I think we’ll change our tune significantly.
The trouble is that it’s not likely that Odell finds his first TD against a defense that is ranked 4th against the pass by footballoutsiders.com. Jordy Nelson alone has put up double digits against Minnesota. I would continue to hold onto OBJ unless you get a full price offer. A trade that just went through in one of my leagues traded OBJ for Sterling Shepard and LeSean McCoy, and I think that trade nails it.
Alshon Jeffery: Wait
With Hoyer presumably under center for at least one more week, I don’t think Alshon owners should be concerned. In fact, I liked Hoyer enough in this game to mention him as a potential streamer in another article I write for clockdodgers.com . Looking back to 2015, Hoyer was good enough to maintain Hopkins’ value, and I think the same can be said here for Alshon. His target and reception totals are exactly the same from week 2 to week 3, and after seeing what Philadelphia did to Pittsburgh that looks like more of an accomplishment than we may have realized.
This week against the Lions I think you’ll get great production out of Alshon and be glad he’s on your roster. According to footballoutsiders.com the Lions are ranked 20th against WR1’s, as evidenced by Jordy Nelson’s welcome back party in week 3. Keep him, start him, and if all goes well maybe write Jay Cutler a letter reminding him that he actually hates football and shouldn’t come back.
Bilal Powell: Wait
Hold onto Powell. Hold him in a gentle embrace and tell him stories about the end of last year when he would come onto the field and make Chris Ivory look slow. In week 3 we finally started to see an uptick in targets as Matt Forte’s usage came down out of the stratosphere. He’s going to continue to be used in this offense and if Forte should miss games for any reason we may really get to see what Powell is capable of. The Jets have really started the season out with a rough opening schedule vs Cincinnati and then at Buffalo and Kansas City. Their QB is already having a tough season. Powell is a bench stash who can also give you bye week or emergency fill in level production.
The bad news is that this week doesn’t look much better vs Seattle who has a #1 schedule adjusted rating at defense. I wouldn’t have the guts to start him but I can envision a scenario where Forte gets completely stuffed or injured and the short passing game is all that’s working. You’re holding onto him, anticipating that Forte spontaneously decides to take a vacation mid season. Keep holding.
Giovanni Bernard Hate
I had some serious expectations for Gio Bernard coming into this season after so many pieces of this offense walked out the door, but so far it seems to be the same old inconsistency that it was last year. He has seen an increase in targets, which I suppose is all that should’ve been expected, but he’s not getting the same carries a game. Last year in the first 3 games he saw 8, 20, and 13, and averaged about 9 on the year. His rushing duty, at least 3 weeks in, has been strictly as a change-of-pace guy behind Hill. The production from the extra targets isn’t keeping up with the cutback in rushes or my expectations.
Against the Dolphins Thursday night Gio saw his most rushing attempts on the season but wasn’t able to turn them into much, accumulating only 18 yds. In a predictably favorable game script Hill got fed taking over the vast majority of meaningful rushing work. I just don’t see a reason for that to change.I would trade Bernard away and from what I can tell people are generally still interested in him, which doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Package him up, ship him off.
Golden Tate: Wait
This feels like a close call, on the tipping point between Wait and Hate. The Lions offense is undeniably different. The rushing game is much improved and less fragmented. Football Outsiders ranks them as the 9th most efficient rushing offense. Combine that with something of an emergent Eric Ebron, and an Anquan Boldin who is being targeted short, and Tate’s role in this offense is being attacked from multiple directions. I don’t think this offense has really settled yet on what it is, and may just continue to evolve. That’s really why I land on the “Wait” side of this question. He’s a tough player who can catch balls in traffic and fight for extra yardage. I think he’ll find ways to contribute.
Looking at the matchup against the Bears I don’t have really high expectations for him this week. Although the Bears are ranked 26th against the pass by, the wide receivers that have had good days against them are Hopkins, Fuller, and Dez. None of these are short yardage, high reception, possession receivers. That may have something to do with the fact that the Bears are also 26th against the run. It will be interesting to see how much of a role the Lions are willing to give Dwayne Washington and if he is able to establish himself as a capable runner. I’m not crazy about his situation, but I’m not ready to trade him at a discount either. It’s wait and see time.
Dwayne Allen: Hate
In week 1 Dwayne seemed to be assuring all of us who drafted him that things were going according to plan as he promptly caught a TD. Sure, sure, Doyle caught two, but whatever, it’s a fluky thing, nobody had Doyle. And then in week 2, and week 3 he’s out targeting and out catching Allen again and again. These problems were supposed to have left with Coby Fleener, but they’re back.
The Colts do have a promising matchup against the Jaguars in Week 4, but the Jags haven’t been allowing a lot of points to TE. I’d say this is due to the fact that the wide receivers are able to get free. Against the Jags Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams had good games and then T Benjamin and Tyrell Williams were able to put up points. So, big game for TY and possibly Dorsett too, not too promising for Allen. The worse news is that if you’ve held on this long you might’ve missed out on Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph, Zach Miller, and Cameron Brate. If any of them are available I’d drop Allen and never look back.
Julio Jones: Wait
Julio was in decoy mode last Monday night. The trouble is that this seems to be a perpetual threat with the often banged up but still playing Julio Jones. This game alone isn’t really a cause for concern, because plenty of elite WR’s have come out to do nothing but be a distraction. What really bothers me is that so far Julio has seen 8,5, & 7 targets. Through the first three games of last season he saw 11,15 and 20. Now admittedly 20 was the high water mark, but he still averaged 12.6 per game and it doesn’t look like that’s in the cards this year. In terms of real football this is probably much better, and Matt Ryan is certainly turning in good score cards. But if you drafted Julio it was all about the market share and the targets because he’s never been a high TD scorer.
This week where I have the depth I have Julio on the bench until he shows that he’s healthy. The Panthers have only allowed 1 TD to a WR and that was Torrey Smith. And, no one else has cracked double digit fantasy points on yardage (non PPR). Julio is still an extremely talented player, but the target numbers have my eyes wandering onto other rosters and wondering what I could get after his first blow-up game.
