As I sit here today, all I can think of is conspiracy. The conspiracy being that the NBA will once again control the draft and who selects where. I’ve looked on Twitter, I’ve looked on ESPN, I’ve looked on NBA.com and all I see is percentages. These percentages will “dictate” the outcome of tonight’s NBA lottery. However, these percentages seem to be flawed. Tonight’s outcome may not be decided by math nor machine, but by man.
Conspiracy #1: The Replacement Theory
The NBA has been long accused of fixing the draft lottery and speculation will only continue to grow if, by some means, the Los Angeles Lakers earn the number one pick. It seems just a little too coincidental for a team that just lost a legend to have a chance to gain one more. This coupled with the fact that a team, the Philadelphia 76ers, who have so visibly made a joke of the NBA will not receive a top pick for consecutive years. The mockery, or should I say process, has left a bad taste in the mouth of NBA executives and owners alike.
For this reason, statistical probability has seemed to change for the Philadelphia 76ers. No longer is odds of landing the number one pick 26% but much less. The math hasn’t changed and the machine hasn’t changed it’s code, but man has thrown itself into the process.
I predict that the fix is in and that the Los Angeles Lakers will receive the number one pick in this year’s draft(essentially giving LA a replacement for Kobe Bryant). The Philadelphia 76ers will select third due to their “process” and its’ monetary affect on the league. I am no executive, nor do I have any ties to organizations, I am just observant. When it comes to the NBA, it is a story that has been told many times before. The number one pick is no longer a probability but a business decision. For example:
- Cleveland winning the draft lottery in 2014(1.70% chance) just so happened to help assemble the juggernaut that is the 2015-2016 Cavaliers
- Cleveland winning the draft lottery in 2011, just one year after LeBron James’ decision. This wouldn’t have raised any eyebrows if it was their original pick(#2) overall that jumped to #1 that year. Instead, it was their #8 pick, acquired from the Clippers, that catapulted to the #1 spot thus giving the Cavs both the #1 and #4 selections that year. Those picks would turn into Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson.
So when it comes to business, who is more important to the NBA? Los Angeles or Philadelphia? The choice is clear, the NBA has much more to lose financially if the Lakers continue to struggle. The Los Angeles Lakers are one of the most recognizable franchises in all of sports, making them the NBA equivalent of “too big to fail”. The NBA will make sure this never happens and a buyout will come in the for of the #1 pick.
Conspiracy #2: The Coup d’eHinkie
The Sixers receive first pick up but not because of probability. The Sixers will receive the #1 pick thanks to their part in the ousting of former General Manager, Sam Hinkie. The man who created the process clearly was forced out of his position by the NBA itself. Hinkie’s process was seen as detrimental to the week thus making it a burden. Owners were losing money, executives we’re getting restless, and the league wanted him out. As a result, Hinkie was put in a situation where his only option was to resign. The NBA’s process was set into motion when the Sixers were “convinced” to hire Jerry Colangelo. Colangelo had no intentions of playing second fiddle to Hinkie, taking almost immediate power from the analytics guru. Then in April, rumors began to swirl. Jerry Colangelo’s son, Bryan, was reportedly set to join the Sixers’ front office. With the writing on the wall, Hinkie would resign and Bryan Colangelo would take over as President of Basketball Operations. Jerry Coleangelo, with his deed complete, would resign as Chairman of Basketball Operations.
The NBA eliminated the man who was challenging them with the Sixers help. For the Sixers role in this coup d’état, they would receive not only the #1 pick but the #4 pick as well. Not only would this be adequate reparations for Philadelphia, it would also be a parting shot to Sam Hinkie.
Both the Lakers and the Sixers are in need of a new savior, however, only one will have their pick. Will fate and probability decide the outcome tonight, or will we see you conclusion of a premeditated business decision?
Do you think the NBA lottery is fixed? Comment below.
