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It’s a story we are all familiar with, and it makes good sense. Player “X” is in the last year of their contract. That means they’ll work extra hard in the offseason, keep their diet clean, and go to bed early. For most of us, the chance to earn millions of dollars based on performance in 1 season would have our attention. And so, we expect NFL players to be the same. They know they’re in the last year of their contract and a big performance is sure to land them big money. So they’ll pull out all the stops and have a big year. Undoubtedly, these are ideas that have occurred to people making their living as athletes, but does it actually make a difference? Should we figure this into our drafting choices?
2015 Free Agents
Let’s take a look at the players who were Unrestricted Free Agents last season. We would certainly expect that there would at least be a bump, a concerted effort to turn in a good score card. These guys knew, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that this was the last year to make an impression before their worth would be reassessed.
First, I narrowed the list of free agents to offensive players that would be in play in most leagues. Performance was measured by fantasy points because we’ll be comparing players from different positions. And, while fantasy points may not be a great way to measure performance in the real football world, it’s what we care about.
As you can see of 15 UFA’s in 2015, only Ryan Mathews and Michael Crabtree did appreciably better than the year before, and both of their performances were within 1 standard deviation of their average. In other words, we expect a certain amount of up and down in players’ scores from year to year, and the amount of increase was within a normal amount of up and down. We’ve seen that amount of inconsistency, or variation, from them already outside of contract deadlines.
Looking at the numbers from Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin, Andre Johnson, CJ Spiller, Charles Clay, Jordan Cameron, Frank Gore, Cecil Shorts, Shane Vereen, and Kenny Britt we see that their performances stayed relatively flat. The largest increase was 14 points from Mr. Gore, the equivalent, in points, of 140 yards over the course of a season. Less than 1 point per week. None of these players gave you the bump that you might have expected if drafting a player in a “contract year”.
Three of the players from the data set had seasons far below their previous season’s totals. However, Forsett and Thomas were both sidelined with injuries. Demarco was in RBBC purgatory, not to mention being outshined by the aforementioned Ryan Mathews. There are a number of factors that have to converge for a player to get the outcome they want, a career high performance. Health may be the biggest factor, followed by situation. It’s also fair to note the teams all of these UFA’s played for allowed them to become UFA’s.
How willing are teams to involve a player who is very likely leaving the next year? Have they already begun to move on, giving targets and carries to the new face of the organization? To say this only highlights the idea that even when a player very clearly needs to deliver a banner year, they may not get the chance to.
The Running Back’s Career
Let’s take a different viewpoint to look at this problem. Instead of focusing on a single year in history, let’s look at the career trajectory of several players.
Again we’ll use career average and judge the ups and downs in terms of a standard deviation. As an illustration of this, take Doug Martin. Doug Martin is a player that is widely regarded as having delivered in a contract year. While he did deliver, you’ll also notice a huge standard deviation of nearly 100 fantasy points. Martin was fantastic in 2010, and then injured for most of the next two seasons. It seems disingenuous to suggest that duration of contract, over health, contributed more to Martin’s production. Some might want to make the argument that he got healthy just for the contract year. But if players have this level of control over their health, wouldn’t they all just stay healthy?
Contract Year High Performers
Lamar Miller: In the two years preceding Miller’s contract signing with the Texans, Miller saw a huge uptick in production. After only seeing 51 attempts as a backup in 2012, in 2014 Miller had lead back duties and was seeing about 200 carries and 40 catches in his final two years with the Dolphins. His better year was actually 2014, his second to last year with the team..
Chris Ivory: Under new head coach Todd Bowles, Ivory received a larger share of the workload losing mostly only passing down work to Powell. With 247 rush attempts and 30 receptions he was able to amass about 1200 yards and 176 fantasy points, a career high.
Jamaal Charles: A generational talent, it’s no secret what the issue has been with Jamaal’s numbers from year to year. When Charles is on the field he’s great, however both 2011 and 2015 were mostly lost to injury. His production hit a new high in 2013, due in large part to 70 catches. I’m not waiting for a new contract to sign Jamaal.
Mark Ingram: A similar story can be told here. Ingram has missed multiple games in every season except 2012. This did not stop him, however, from putting up a career season in 2014, when he played in only 13 games. This was also the year he saw the greatest workload with 226 rushing attempts. I have to believe that if he was able to stay on the field for an entire season, with a full workload, his career best and contract year in 2014 would be eclipsed.
Jonathan Stewart: J. Stew has been giving the Panthers quality work behind DeAngleo Williams since 2008. In 2011 Stewart was able to amass 147 carries for 761 yards, and perhaps more importantly 47 catches for an additional 413 yards, a creep tin total he has not been able to match. In 2014 Stewart was named starter and in 2015 put up career fantasy numbers. Workload and health seem to be the determining factors here, rather than contract duration. Another key circumstance in J. Stew’s 2015 success was the success of the team in general.The Panthers were 151 and ahead in a lot of games, allowing a run heavier second half.
This set of players represent the most compelling evidence for the “contract year” narrative. They all put up great numbers in a year immediately followed by the signing of a new contract. But, when we look even only a little closer, other factors come into focus. The output of Charles, & Ingram are very clearly tied to health. Miller, Stewart, and Ivory put up what their work loads afforded them the opportunity to put up. All of these players would benefit from an upward trajectory in terms of production in each and every year of their careers, not just those at the end of contracts.
More convincing still are the players who do not maximize production. Adrian Peterson went from a career average of about 200 fantasy points to 9.3 in a contract year. We know what happened there. Peterson had personal issues relating to his son, to say the least, and barely played. So this 9.3 fantasy points doesn’t represent a dropoff in skill, but it does debunk the notion that being In a contract year necessarily effects behavior. Ryan Mathews has put up great numbers in years when he misses less than 3 games, and the allure of dollar bills does not seem to heal groins, MCL, sprains, or broken clavicles. Frank Gore, the definition of consistency was not able to convince a team crumbling around him that it would be worthwhile for them to step it up. It would seem the players they play against have the same idea, that playing well might be good for their pocketbooks.
2016 Players In Contract Years
With the history of contract year performances in our minds, we can turn our eye to the future and look at some players who will be entering their contract year in 2016.
Le’Veon Bell: After allegedly missing multiple drug tests Bell will miss the first four games of the season. Coming off an injury as well, and having his backup (Deangelo Williams) prove himself to be quite capable, Bell’s workload may be in question. His team is also missing the dynamic
Martavis Bryant: A player that, when available, helps his team to an average of 7 more points. It will be all but impossible for Bell to surpass his 2014 numbers and perpetuate the contract year narrative. Although, whatever we do see from him is likely to be great. In any sort of dynasty or keeper league I would not be buying Bell. Health combined with this drug test issue has me wondering if the team will be looking to move on and puts his future in question. They have demonstrated, with Williams, that it doesn’t take Bell to produce a top RB in this offense.
Darren McFadden: I’m sure this player would love nothing more than for it all to come together this season, but conditions have changed. Last year McFadden was the most reliable part of an RBBC that started with Randle, then moved on to Dunbar. But, all along there was McFadden piling up 239 carries for over 1000 yds with an additional 328 yds coming from his 40 receptions. In the coming year the rookie sensation Ezekiel Elliot is very likely to be given the lion’s share of at least 1 & 2 down work. McFadden’s role in this offense is unclear, but his role is likely limited to s 3rd down and hurry up work.
LeGarrette Blount: It has been a few years since we saw the vintage Blount of the 2010-2011 Buccaneers, when he handled around 200 carries per season and topped 1000 yards. The LeGarette of today is the big back in what perhaps the NFL’s least predictable backfield. Having said that, he was able to play a role in 2015. The role consisted largely putting away games already won by a very capable Patriots team. Coming into 2016 New England once again has a healthy Dion Lewis in addition to Donald Brown. I can’t quite keep a straight face in saying Donald Brown is a serious threat to this veteran, but I don’t think what Blount is bringing to the game plan is difficult to replace. Blount may be best suited for bestball, when you won’t need your crystal ball to predict the “Blount games”.
Latavius Murray: Murray’s team invested in his development last year giving him a share of the work that is increasingly uncommon in today’s NFL. Murray attempted 266 rushes and caught 41 passes, but was largely inefficient with the opportunity. While the team did draft an up and coming backup in Deandre Washington, Murray should still get the first opportunity and 1st and 2nd down work. The Raiders also added depth to a very good offensive line in the draft, and that’ll be good for Murray. Latavius still has 4.43 40yd speed and a SPARQX score that puts him in the 77th percentile. If he makes any progress in terms of developing his vision as an NFL back I think fantasy owners will find this 3rd round fantasy pick profitable.
Eddie Lacy: After a very disappointing 2015, Lacy is back around 240 lbs, which tells me that he has been healthy enough to work out. Also worth mentioning is the return of WR Jordy Nelson, and the likely return of a highpowered offense to Green Bay. While any Lacy owner is aware if the presence of Starks in that backfield, they should also be aware of the fact that through the final 7 games last season, a terrible Lacy season, Starks only had more than 10 carries in 1 game. Starks provides a safety net to the team, but no real threat to Lacy’s lead back position. This year Eddie reminds why he was a 1st round fantasy pick last year.
Allen Robinson: The popular rhetoric on this player is “touchdown regression” and it’s probably correct. 14 TD’s on 80 catches is a pretty remarkable clip. But, after two years, years that were not even like each other, to what mean are we regressing? I’m not sure we’ve seen peak ARob, or what receiver he compares to. There are receivers in the NFL who do this at arelatively consistent rate. Dez Bryant is one, Eric Decker, yes Decker, is another. His last season of 12 TD on 80 is pretty comparable in terms of TD rate. It sounds fluky, but Decker caught 8 TD’s playing with Tebow. Touchdowns are what he does. Is it crazy to think Robinson could be more talented than Eric Decker? We probably won’t see 14, but I think the yards stay high and the TD’s will be in double digits.
When the best example of a narrative being true, involves players who have a constant struggle with health (Ingram, Martin), just moved to a completely new offense (Crabtree) or is being given a workload he’s never seen before (Ivory) it’s got to be seen for the hollow narrative it is. We can be sure it matters to players, but factors such as health and workload have a much more demonstrable effect. If we believe players control these factors enough to manipulate them in contract years, I can’t understand why a player like Martin would choose to lose the previous two years to injury. Player evaluations are already subjective and murky enough, without adding variables. While some players will inevitably have contract years wherein everything comes together, we don’t have to look far to find players whose health, teammates, or a slough of other factors prevent them from realizing career highs. All of these players are more than aware that career high stats in a 1st, 2nd or last year of a contract means money. I’m sure they’d all like to post career numbers every year, but football is a team sport.
