It’s now week three of the Preseason and we are getting ever so close to everyone’s favorite unofficial Holiday, the start of the NFL season. Teams are evaluating their talent, making their cuts and figuring out who is going to make the opening day roster and if you are a Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) player you are most likely doing the same thing. The leaders in DFS DraftKings and FanDuel have had their opening week contests up for sometime and all of us lovers of the game have begun looking at match-ups, stats and salaries to see how we are going to approach the week one big money tournaments. I want to help you get your DFS year started off on the right foot, so let’s take a look at some week one players to buy and leave dry!
Quarterback
BUY: Jameis Winston Tampa Bay @ Atlanta.
DraftKings Salary $6,600 FanDuel Salary $7,500.
The second year QB showed us enough last season to know that he can produce solid fantasy numbers. Jameis Winston went into Atlanta last year week eight, completed 55% of his passes while throwing and rushing for a TD. The Falcons finished 18th against the pass and 15th in yards per game (YPG) in 2015. Everything you read about Winston says he has been focused this off-season on getting better as an individual and as a teammate/player. Reports are he has looked great in camp.
LEAVE DRY: Jimmy Garoppolo New England @ Arizona.
DraftKings Salary $6,200 FanDuel Salary $6,900.
Here is probably one of the most intriguing players to start the 2016 season. Tom Brady is suspended for the first four games, which may be very deflating for Patriot fans, so insert Garoppolo. Many people are impressed with the young QB and say he possesses all the skills to be a starter in the NFL. So much so that some reporters actually asked Coach Belichick during early camp Press Conferences if the “Great Deflator” was in any danger of losing his job when he returned. Garoppolo looks like a player, but not one I want to start week one. He is on the road against what many are ranking as the #1 defense in the NFL to start the year. His supporting cast is banged up, Dion Lewis out two months (Knee) Julian Edelman is battling a foot injury and Danny Amendola is on the PUP list. Yes, there is Rob Gronkowski but with so many other question marks around him the Cardinals are sure to make him their #1 priority in stopping the Patriots. The price is intriguing and so is the timing of the game, but let’s see what the kid can do first!
RUNNING BACK
BUY: Latavius Murray Oakland @ New Orleans.
DraftKings Salary $5,600 FanDuel $6,600.
Latavius Murray should be someone you are focusing on to play a big part in your week one lineup. It’s a road matchup and that could scare anyone off, but here’s the deal, the Saints defense stinks in any zip code. Murray will run all over this defense regardless of where the game is played. In 2015 the Saints were 31st against the run and 31st in yards against. The Raiders are a team on the rise with Murray, Cooper and Derek Carr and there should be some formidable numbers coming out of Oakland in 2016. Murray offers great value and great potential in this match-up.
LEAVE DRY: Eddie Lacy Green Bay @ Jacksonville.
DraftKings Salary $6,700 FanDuel Salary $7,100.
Last Season Eddie Lacy was a huge bust to fantasy owners that drafted him. Between injuries and being overweight 2015 is a year Lacy and his owners want to forget. Fast Forward to 2016 “Lacy looks great” “He has lost 30+ LBS” “He looks faster than ever”. Fantasy owners have jumped on board and maybe you should too, but lets not do it week one. The Jaguars have made significant improvements on their defense and come into the 2016 season as a potential sleeper. I think this is a close game throughout and the new revamped Jags D keeps Lacy in check. Let’s not forget about James Starks who Aaron Rodgers trusts a lot. In 2015 when the packers were involved in games within a margin of seven points or less Starks received 49 carries compared to Lacy’s 39 and even more when the game was within in seven in the 4th Quarter Starks averaged 6.9 YPC to Lacy’s 2.3 YPC. I like Lacy in 2016, but stay away week one.
WIDE RECEIVER
BUY: Tyler Lockett Seattle VS Miami.
DraftKings Salary $5,000 FanDuel Salary $6,200.
Tyler Lockett is a WR with a ton of potential. He possesses speed and may be the deep threat that Russell Wilson needs to take that Seattle offense to new heights. Down the stretch of the 2015 season Wilson seemed to gain trust in the then rookie wide out targeting him 7 times per game from week 13-16. Lockett caught 21 of those 28 targets including 3 for touchdowns. The past effectiveness of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson give Seattle the reputation of being a running team. The Dolphins were 21st against the pass and 25th in yards per game against (YPGA) in 2015. This game is in Seattle, its week one and I look for the Seahawks to make a statement that they are still one of the leagues elite teams. Look for Wilson and Lockett to carry over that late season success into week one and beyond.
LEAVE DRY: AJ Green Cincinnati @ New York Jets.
DraftKings Salary $8,400 FanDuel Salary $8,200.
AJ Green is one of the best wide-outs in football and will more often than not get used in DFS contests weekly. However, week one seems like a very difficult spot for the Bengals and Mr. Green. The Jets pose one of the best all around defenses in the NFL and still have Darelle Revis leading the secondary. Revis lives for these match-ups and will be looking to show the league that he is still the premiere shut down corner in the game. Green has struggled at times against big name CB’s, namely week 11 last year against Patrick Peterson. Peterson held Green to 2 catches on 6 targets for 24 yards. Revis may have lost a step or two, but he is more than capable of putting together a similar stat line week one against the All-Pro WR. If you are looking to spend high-end money on a WR look elsewhere.
TIGHT END
BUY: Gary Barnidge Cleveland @ Philadelphia.
DraftKings Salary $4,700 FanDuel Salary $6,300.
I know, I know it’s the Browns, but Gary Barnidge had a breakout year in 2015 and going into the season looks like a reliable option for Robert Griffin III and the Browns offense. Cleveland is thin and unproven at the WR position to start the season. I love the long-term potential of Corey Coleman and once Josh Gordon returns from suspension he will have a big impact as well, but week one Gordon isn’t here and Coleman will be making his debut. Barnidge had 100% snap share (playerprofiler.com) in 2015, yes you read that right 100%. He played every down of every game. He was 3rd in TD’s, 2nd in targets and 3rd in Red Zone target % for Tight Ends. The Eagles were atrocious on D last season 29th in passing yards against and 29th in points allowed. Griffin III is going to need someone he can trust and Barnidge is his guy. This is your #1 TE target week one.
LEAVE DRY: Will Tye New York Giants @ Dallas.
DraftKings Salary $3,300 FanDuel Salary $5,200.
Will Tye is going to be a sexy pick for season long fantasy leagues. He showed some flashes and good chemistry with Eli Manning last season. Tye was on the field for 59.4% of the snaps in 13 games and had 17.7% of his targets in the Red Zone, while Larry Donnell was on the field for 77.1% of the snaps in the eight games he played in and had 22% of his targets in the red zone. We don’t know who is going to be the primary TE for the Giants, and they very well may split the snaps but at 6’6’’ Donnell looks like the best option for those important Red Zone targets. Tye may be the TE of the future for the Giant, but that has yet to be determined and probably won’t be by week one. Oh, and one last thing and probably most important, the Cowboys were #1 against opposing TE’s in 2015.
Scott Burke– SuperTwoSports.com DFS Writer, Football Enthusiast and All-Around Sports Junkie.
