MVP
Russell Wilson QB Seahawks
When you look closer at Russell Wilson you see just how spectacular he was in the second half of last season. Cam Newton won the award last year and rightfully so, in part due to his monster second half. Wilson was just as good if not better than Cam, but he was the QB of a wild card team and that normally isn’t enough to win the award. This year the Seahawks feel that they are as talented as the 2013 team who had 81/90 players play in a regular season game in 2013. The teams only weakness is the offensive line, but no QB performs better than Wilson under pressure. His weapons this year are as good as they have ever been with Baldwin being the NFL’s most underrated WR, Lockett an explosive playmaker, and Jimmy Graham as a big red zone threat. The departure of Lynch should mean that this is now Russell Wilsons team. He should run for over 500 yards, pass for over 4,000 and score over 35 touchdowns. Combine that with the talent of the Seahawks ready to go 13-3 and it adds up to a MVP season for Russell Wilson
Defensive Player of the Year
Khalil Mack DE/OLB Raiders
The only player in NFL history to make the first team all-pro team in NFL history at two different positions. Historically who the sack leader in the NFL is has a huge impact on who the winner of the award is. Mack was second in the league in sacks last year behind only JJ Watt. Watt, who the award should be renamed after, is likely going to miss the first week or two. Also writers get tired of giving the award to the same person so unless Watt is far superior to the next closest defender I don’t think it will be a three peat for Watt. The Raiders are a much improved team, with improved corners thanks to the addition of Sean Smith, and a new edge rushing partner in Bruce Irvin. Mack should be able to take advantage of defenses not only having to worry about him, and have more time to get the passer. This should allow him to top his 15.5 sacks of last season. Mack is entering his third year in the NFL, the season where players tend to take the biggest step. I am all in on Mack the talent and think he wins the award this season.
Offensive Player of the Year
Antonio Brown WR Steelers
When Big Ben plays there is no player who performs better than Antonio Brown, and I say that when Julio Jones is my favorite player. A closer look at Brown’s numbers in Big Ben’s last 16 starts, 152-2039-12. In 15 game is Brown’s career where Bell did play his numbers are 138-2004-11. On top of all that the Steelers have lost 178 targets from last season which means he could see even more targets. Brown should push for the all-time single season receiving record, as well as the single season reception record. Brown has a chance to run away with this award this season and should be a great joy to watch.
Comeback Player of the Year
Robert Griffin QB Browns
Maybe I am buying into the preseason hype too much, but he has looked very solid thus far. Hue Jackson is known as a QB Guru and loves RG3. Griffin has had one of the biggest falling from graces in the history of sports. He was the darling of the NFL before tearing his ACL, playing horrible, losing his job, and having his teammates turn on him. In that aspect no player can compete with that extent of a comeback with Griffin. Last year’s story was awesome with Eric Berry beating cancer. The biggest competitors to Griffin this year are people coming back from injury or poor play, not both. Griffin plays for the Cleveland Browns the laughing stock of the NFL. The defense of the Browns is going to struggle a lot this year, being the NFL’s worst run defense. The Browns are going to be down and this will allow RG3 to build his numbers. Griffin has a lot of weapons especially once Josh Gordon comes back. Gary Barnidge proved to be one of the better receiving tight ends in the NFL last season. Corey Coleman was the most explosive player in college last year, and Griffin should allow him to shine with the great deep ball he throws. The X factor is Terrelle Pryor, who has dominated people in both games and practice. He has finally figured out how to play WR and take advantage of his incredible athleticism. Griffin has all the weapons to but up good numbers this year and take home the award.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Laquan Treadwell WR Vikings
This pick is more of a long shot, as Elliott is the heavy favorite and has good reason to be. However, I think Treadwell is an elite talent who can have a Mike Evans like impact in his rookie year. He should be the first look in the red zone, and has a chance to post 10 touchdowns. Norv Turner is bringing back his famous skinny post route to get Treadwell more involved from the start. All reports are that he has been excellent in practice and has made an impression on Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings should win a fair amount of game and compete for the playoffs. Treadwell will be a big reason for that, and with big numbers will win rookie of the year.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Myles Jack LB Jaguars
This man was a top 5 talent who fell in the draft due to questions on the longevity of his career. Those issues aren’t likely to impact his rookie season at all. He comes in and can have a Luke Keuchly like rookie season as a three down linebacker. He will have a good defensive line in front of him that should keep him clean and free to make players. He can cover the other teams tight end or running back. He can also rush the passer on blitzes or as a rush linebacker. Jack is a linebacker with no holes in his game. He is likely to be near the lead league in tackles, adding multiple sacks and interceptions and run away with the award. To me his biggest competition if from his teammate Dante Fowler who could post double digit sacks in his second year. The other advantage Jack has is that he is out to prove something and everyone will be watching him. He has a good story about overcoming adversity and that should play well with the voters for the award.
Coach of the Year
Bill O’Brien Head Coach Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are my sleeper pick to make a run at the Super Bowl this season. The Texans have a top 5 defense in the NFL along with playmakers on offense. They were an 8-8 team with the quarterbacks Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, and TJ Yates. This year they have Brock Osweiler who is an unproven big armed quarterback. Osweiler has all the tools and O’Brien is known for getting the most out of his quarterbacks. If he plays to a top 15 level, which he is capable off this team could really take off. The Texans also added Lamar Miller the explosive underused playmaker from Miami. He is a monstrous upgrade over Alfred Blue and will provide a major impact running the ball, as well as catching the ball out of the backfield. The Texans had a strong draft and have now surrounded Hopkins, an All-pro talent with speed in Fuller, size in Strong, and quickness in Miller. This is a team on the rise and I see O’Brien taking them there. An 11-5 or 12-4 season with an AFC South crown should be enough for him to win the award.
NFL League Leaders
Passing Yards
Drew Brees QB Saints
Brees has been in the top 5 of passing yards every year he has been healthy for the Saints. He plays in the perfect system that likes to throw under Sean Payton. The Saints struggle at defense, having a historically bad defense last season, and will have to throw to stay in games. The Saints only hope to win games is to outscore the opponent, not to play it safe and win 21-17. This is the formula for Brees to throw the ball a lot, and for the yards to add up. He should clear 5,000 yards yet again this year and lead the league in passing yards.
Rushing Yards
Lamar Miller RB Texans
Miller has averaged 4.81 YPC over the past two seasons. Look at the names over that same span that he has bested, Le’Veon Bell (4.76), Doug Martin (4.49), Adrian Peterson (4.48), Mark Ingram (4.42), DeMarco Murray (4.35), and LeSean McCoy (4.30). He has never had more than 260 touches in a season, but that should change this season. Last year the Miami Dolphins were dead last in running back touches, the Houston Texans were first. Lamar Miller has all the talent, and now will get the opportunity to be a star running back. He should get close to 300 carries and end up close to 1,500 yards. In today’s NFL that should be more than enough to lead the league. Last season only two backs surpassed 1,200 yards.
Receiving Yards
Antonio Brown WR Steelers
See the write up above, but if both Big Ben and Brown stay healthy he should lead the league no problem. I think he breaks the single season yards record this season
Tackles
Navarro Bowman LB 49ers
Last year’s lead league leader in tackles will make in back to back in 2016. Bowman just signed a monster extension is by far the best player on the 49ers defense. The 49ers have two things working in Bowman’s advantage. The first is Chip Kelly’s system which is fast paces and will have the 49ers defense on the field more than any other team in the NFL. The second is that the 49ers aren’t very good so they will be trailing a lot this season. Teams will run the ball a lot and Bowman may be the best run stopping linebacker in the NFL. This is a formula for the super star linebacker to lead the league in tackles.
Sacks
Khalil Mack LB Raiders
I wrote about Mack above picking him to win the defensive player of the year. Leading the league in sacks will be a huge reason as to why. Mack plays in the AFC west and will go up against Eric Fisher, Russell Okung, and King Dunlap six times this season. He has the ability to dominate each of these average tackles. JJ Watt is banged up and will miss the first week or two. Mack will play the Saints pass happy offense to start the season where he will take the sack lead and not give it back all season long.
Interceptions
Earl Thomas S Seahawks
Picking the league leader in interceptions is a lot like winning the lottery. So many interceptions are by chance or are by corners who get picked on for being subpar in coverage. Earl Thomas is a ball hawking safety who will look to cover the ground Shead and Lane cannot for the Seahawks. He is a true center fielder who has excellent ball skills. The Seahawks should be up on teams a lot this season which means teams will be throwing on them a lot. Thomas should take advantage of bad QBs on his schedule baiting them into bad throws that he can intercept.
