The aim of this article is to help you decide what to do with the guys that aren’t filling your heart with that warm fuzzy feeling. None of them are lighting the world on fire, but for some there is light at the end of the tunnel. I’ll tell you whether I think things get better (whether you should wait) or whether I think it’s just going to be a whole lot of suck (hate). In my trade suggestions I don’t typically give same position examples because that’s not how I trade. I think you stand to get a lot better value if you try to go RB for WR, or even TE. Please, feel free to make your own judgements if somebody wants RB for RB, straight-up.
Russell Wilson: Wait
Russell eeks out a “Pass” from me against the Rams. My take has been that this has to be the line’s fault, because Russell is Russell, right? But even when he’s getting time he hasn’t been spectacular. In Week , 2, I saw 3 throws that were impressive, and one of them came back on a Lockett penalty. Russell was under pressure on about one out of three pass plays. That isn’t to say that he had any abundance of time, there were a lot of quick shots, and going deep usually meant having to move around or climb the pocket at the very least. Even when he had time there were a lot of incompletions. By my very unofficial tally he had sufficient time on 27 drop backs and completed 18, 67%. Like I said, it’s passable. Now, it was the Rams, and for some reason, the Rams have had the Seahawk’s number for the last year or so. There isn’t a credible run threat right now for defenses to have to scheme against, and part of that is Wilson’s ankle. I think there’s still hope for this to all come together.
Currently the Seahawks are 31st in points scored and 26th in yards. I cannot imagine that they finish as a bottom 5 defense. If you believe that, you believe Russel’s value is on the rise. Don’t sell low, yet. I can tell you from personal experience that I offered Wilson for Diggs, who I really like, and it was rejected without much hesitation. It’s tough to trade a position and get value when people know they can find replacements in free agency. You might be able to offer Russell as an upgrade for someone who is starting a QB like Eli Manning who hasn’t done much yet, and in turn flip a lower level RB or WR into a better one.
Jeremy Langford: Hate
I don’t see any roads that lead to a good place for Langford after watching him against the Eagles. The vast majority of his runs are just blah. He’s the pancake, no syrup. I don’t see that he’s doing a bad job (outside of the fumble), but he’s not getting anything more than what’s blocked. To make things worse the Bears are pass heavy team (63%) limiting his opportunity to 11 carries in Week 2. Even if the Bears decide to go with a more run heavy approach because of Cutler’s absence there’s no guarantee that it goes to Langford. Howard looked better and in a dynasty situation I’d say he’s the guy to own.
If you can move Langford to a team that’s lacking at RB already, and in turn get something like Emanuel Sanders, Michael Crabtree, or even a TE like Olsen I’d say go for that. I don’t like the future for Langford.
Latavius Murray: Wait
There are so many running backs in Oakland. They’re popping up like zits on a teenager’s face. Olawale, Richard, Washington. If you drafted Latavius a big part of the draw there was the idea that he was one of the few remaining bell cows, possible having to contend with rookie Deandre Washington. Through two games he really doesn’t seem to be Latavius’ biggest threat. According to player profiler he only gets 47.6% of his team’s RB opportunities. It’s disappointing. He hasn’t looked bad himself, he just hasn’t had many of the big splash type plays. The criticism that everyone has thrown at him, because it was accurate last year, was that he was inefficient. This year he’s rushing for 5.3ypc and is 7th in the league in Production Premium (playerprofiler.com). I’m not sure if this is an argument for the committee, or an argument that he should get more work.
Right now, largely because of TD’s in his first two games he has a great looking stat line. If you can move him for a WR, like Maclin, Hilton or Fitzgerald, I wouldn’t mind it. I also get the feeling that while the intention may be to have a rotation, things will get less crowded as one or two guys emerge. Waiting could work out.
Devonta Freeman: Hate
This feels a little premature, and I’m certainly not advocating a drop yet, but when “Mr. Passing-catching Back” is supplanted in that specific role, it’s not good. Are we now expecting Devonta Freeman to make a living as a standard league style RB? He looks better running the ball than Coleman, but even if he is the better runner in this scheme that only gets you 55% of the Falcons snaps to Coleman’s 49%. He got 17 rush attempts to Coleman’s 12 in week 2, but only produced 9.3 fantasy points because there was nothing else. He had exactly 0 targets in Week 2. It may be an accurate statement to say that this was a bad game script, but when are we going to see this be different? Their next four games are @Saints, Panthers, @Broncos, @Seahawks. That’s brutal.
If you can flip Freeman to the Coleman owner that might get you the best value. If Freeman no longer possesses that pass catching role I’m not sure what the road that leads to better production is. I don’t think that road goes between the tackles. Entertain offers like Jordan Matthews and Marvin Jones if you want off this ride.
Todd Gurley: Wait
The good news is that Todd Gurley looked pretty good in Week 2. The bad news is the even though Todd Gurley looked pretty good, his fantasy day was pretty disappointing. I think what you’re going to need a game where somehow, the Rams can afford to just feed Gurley. What I saw when they played the Seahawks, who are a tough matchup for any running back, was that the Rams were doing a lot to try and unstack the box. Keenum was throwing out of 2 TE sets, plays that really looked like runs. I lost track of how many fake end around were run. The Rams are clearly aware of the other team’s perception of them. The trouble is, I think this will continue to be the case. The Rams pass attack, which looked sufficient will have to continue to be enough for defense’s to change their mind about how to play this team.
If you get any reasonable offers for Gurley I’d consider taking them. The least that I might consider is in the neighborhood of Decker or possibly a high end QB like Brees. This was a tough matchup, and it’s hard to keep the faith when you start the season with two of these, but the alternative is not going to help you in the long run. I’m feeling optimistic about what I saw against the Seahawks.
Colby Fleener….Wait (unless)
I know that this is nowhere near what we expected from Fleener in this Saints offense, especially in Week 1 when Brees threw 4 TDs. Despite the lack of production Fleener has been on the field for about 82% of snaps. If he was just completely lost in this offense I don’t think that would be the case. His target share through 2 games is trending in the right direction, but it would help if he caught them. I don’t see that he’s being asked to stay in and block, and I’d be really surprised if that started to happen. Nobody thinks that’s what Fleener is. Some of the routes Fleener runs, when he actually gets targeted, looked to me like Brees wasn’t quite sure what Fleener would do in his route. The pass is on him, but it’s at an angle that suggests Brees was trying to anticipate a move that didn’t happen and then Fleener has to try and contort his body and make the catch. He had one really nice run up the seam that was just out of reach and if that Fleener huils that one in it’s a TD and we’re all relieved that Fleener arrived in Week 2. On the more concerning side of things Cadet is catching a lot of short passes hat a TE might otherwise suck up, but the Saints targeting their RB isn’t new and it didn’t stop Ben Watson from having a good season. That’s my read on what’s going on here. The chemistry make take some time to develop.
Even though I think this issue may resolve itself eventually. Let me be pretty clear in saying that I’d wait another week to see what happens against the Falcons and if things aren’t different I’d start streaming. Check your waiver wire now and if Ebron or Pitta are still there pick them up, dropping Fleener if you have to.
The Seattle RB’s
Thomas Rawls: Hate
Christine Michael: Wait
My eyes tell me that C Mike just looks better. I like to grade players as I watch with a simple +, -, or 0 for neutral. According to my very unprofessional system here I thought Michael added value to, or at least got the most of about half of his plays. Rawls got the + on only about ⅓. I think it’s a good way to look at things because it’s certainly not a case of Rawls bad, Michael good. ½ compared to ⅓ sounds about right to me. I continue to hear conjecture that Rawls isn’t completely healthy, and that certainly could be. Think about CJ Anderson last year. Granted there are some system changes as well, but I just don’t remember seeing Anderson look this good last year. I completely buy into the idea that he was 90% and they trotted him out there Week after week. Maybe that’s Rawls too, but Michael is giving a lot stiffer competition than Ronnie Hillman ever thought about offering. I don’t think that this competition is about stats but the single most compelling number I’ve seen from week 2 was the snap count. C Mike, 72%, T Rawls, 22%
For Michael, I don’t think he ever blows Rawls off the field, which caps his upside. If you’re getting offers in the neighborhood of Willie Snead or Legarrette Blount, I’d consider them but I’d probably be happier to hold.
For Rawls I think you’re in for the type of 2015 we saw from Eddie Lacy and Anderson. He’s not quite right, but there he is, suiting up again. I’d be happy to trade Rawls for Jordan Mathews or Jarvis Landry, but I might take Crabtree (probably not). I’m not seeing a lot of promise for him.
Demaryius Thomas: Hate
After watching Trevor Siemian, and the scheme Denver put together for weeks 1 & 2, I just don’t think this year pans out for Thomas. This team is running the 31st most pass plays and through two games Thomas has only 13 targets. A look at Thomas’ efficiency stats on player profiler shows a production premium of +10.2(24th) and a target premium of +31.1 (18th), so I think it’s fair to say he’s doing his part with less opportunity than we’d hoped for. When I say I don’t like the QB situation or the scheme, I mean that DMT’s volume does not look to be on the rise. My take on DMT is that he’s more of an athletic specimen than a crisp route runner, and I’m not sure the new QB in town has the ability to use him. On the other hand, there seemed to be more chemistry between Siemian and Sanders. I think he just does a better job of presenting the QB with a target and creating separation in a route where DMT’s game requires a drop in the bucket, in stride type of delivery. I don’t see this working well with a developing game manager type QB and shrinking volume. Combine that with a hip issue, and I think you have an idea of where this is going.
There is still some expectation attached to Thomas’ name at this point. If you can cash in on that and flip him for Edelman, Benjamin, or Landry, I’d consider it seriously. As an RB, I think Ryan Mathews is a reasonable target. If you’re willing to take the shot and see what Jamaal Charles turns into, that could work out. I don’t think Demaryius Thomas stock has a lot of good days in front of it.
