I just can’t make myself pull the trigger on Cam in round two, and I hate Jay Cutler’s face. So what am I to do? If you’re not ready or willing to pay up for the top-tier QB, but you’re also not ready (or it’s not feasible in your league) to stream at the position, a QB pair may be the way to go. As much as I dislike the thought of making schedules and bye weeks significant criteria in draft choices, it matters for QB. That’s why 40 some QB’s posted a top 12 week in 2015. These are guys can get in the middle to late rounds, and barring some major upheaval in defensive rankings one or the other will give you a viable option through the season.
Ben Roethlisberger 6.06
“My eyes say fat, but my brain says professional athlete”, I can’t remember who said it but it’s pretty much the first thing I think every time I see Big Ben. A big arm with the ability to extend plays, he’s always fun to watch, but has a tendency to run a little hot and cold.
In 2015 Roethlisberger played in 7 home games. In those games he was a QB1 4 times and a QB2 3 times. He averaged 30 fantasy points at home. On the road we saw a different Ben. Averaging only 16 points he put up single digit fantasy points twice and 1 game of exactly 10 points. Looking at his scores as a whole, Ben’s standard deviation was over 12 points. This is just who he is. He has top 5 upside and a floor of 5 or 6 points. He also struggled with an MCL sprain, a foot sprain, and a concussion last season, which led to him missing 4 games and not really delivering in 4 more.
Roethlisberger is a great player to have as long as you don’t have to put him in the lineup every week. He’s not an every week starter and he’s going ahead of at least one guy who is at pick 6.03. Looking at the Steelers schedule, I’d try to go elsewhere in weeks 2,4,5,7,8 (bye),14 and 15. QB’s whose schedules match up with that are as follows:
Derek Carr pick 9.05
Tough weeks: 6,9,10 (bye),11,12,13,14, and 17
Matt Ryan pick 12.01
Tough weeks: 5,6,8,11 (bye),12,13,14,16
Philip Rivers pick 8.12
Tough weeks: 1,6,8,11 (bye),12, 14,17
Tony Romo pick 10.02
Tough weeks: 5,6,7 (bye),13
If you have Big Ben, I’d probably be looking at one of the two cheaper options, as he costs you the earliest pick of the group. If you don’t mind a little more injury risk with Romo, I think he’s the better of the two and his schedule figures to be much easier. On the other hand, Matt Ryan
is nothing if not consistent and he might provide a floor play if you want off the Roethlisberger roller coaster. Either pair should give you a decent option most weeks.
Blake Bortles 7.12
Sometimes a strength can become a weakness. Bortles has a great arm, but that strength almost seems to erode the development of other important facets of their game, like mechanics (footwork). There were a lot of off-kilter throws, and a lot of them (18) were caught by the wrong team. Bortles may be the player who had the biggest difference in fantasy performance and real world performance. His team finished 511, and at the same time he finished 3rd among QB’s in terms of fantasy points.
I don’t think we can place all of the woes of the Jags on Bortles’ shoulders. His team’s defense ranked 24th overall (ESPN.com) allowing 6000 yds and 448 points. They were also the 27th ranked rushing offense. So, while it may not have been his fault that they were constantly behind, that’s where his stats came from. Bortles attempted 59 of his over 600 passes while leading, less than 10% of his attempts. In those attempts he had 3 TDs and 2 INT’s with a rating of QB rating of 74. While trailing Bortles had 29 TD’s to 16 INT’s and a much better rating of 92.5. It is what it is, Bortles was playing from behind a lot, and that’s where his numbers come from. I don’t think we should just dismiss the Jaguars’ year, and say “Well it was garbage time, they were trailing”. Lots of teams, or more specifically QB’s, trailed often and didn’t put up these numbers. We shouldn’t hold Bortles’ 35 TD’s against him. The interceptions, on the other hand, are very concerning.
I think we should allow for the possibility that Bortles improves. If he does he’s on a term with weapons and, at least last year, a team that wanted to throw. There’s a lot of potential there. Even giving the ball away 18 times, he got more red zone attempts than any other QB. That figures to change some with the addition of Ivory, but if Bortles takes any kind of step forward as a player there should be a lot of redzone in this team’s future.
With Bortles I think the key is having realistic expectations. I’m expecting to get a guy I can start sometimes, that’s pretty reasonable. Looking at the schedule for the Jags the bye comes in week 5, and then the tough match ups figure to be in weeks 9,10,12,13,14, & 15.
Ryan Fitzpatrick pick 13:04
Tough Weeks: 1,2,3,4,6,10, 11 (bye), 12, 16, 17
Andy Dalton pick 11.08
Tough Weeks: 1,3,6, 9 (bye), 11, 16
Jay Cutler pick 18.02
Tough Weeks 1,3,4,5,15,17
I’d go with Fitzmagic here. His receivers are the 2nd pair to get drafted, and their value comes through their QB. Last year Fitz was the #11 fantasy QB and #9 in red zone attempts. People will call for his touchdown numbers to regress, but he’s throwing to Decker and Marshall.
Marshall hardly needs to be defended but people don’t seem to understand that Decker catches touchdowns in bunches every year. 2015 might be a high water mark, but the floor is pretty high, he’s not a fluke.
Matt Stafford 11.03
With the departure of Calvin Johnson, and the promotion of Jim Bob Cooter, I’m not sure what we know about Stafford. Could he be in for the season Rodgers had last year after losing Nelson? I think it’s on the table, especially when you consider the Lions’ running game. The biggest difference is what Cooter brings to the table in terms of scheme. Short passes seemed to be the name of the game, getting the ball out of the hands of Mr. Stafford. After Jim Bob took over Stafford’s completion % went up from 64.9 to 69.7. His yards per attempt also went up slightly from 7.075 to 7.366, which isn’t significant but it’s interesting because they went to throwing such short passes. He also went from throwing 9 picks in weeks 17, to then only 4 for the remainder of the season.
He’s still in a pass offense that should provide a lot of opportunities to air it out. He’ll be behind what was the 5th best Oline (player profiler.com), and again on a team that hasn’t put together a rushing attack. He’ll be throwing. Stafford has a familiar target in Tate, a guy who has made a career out of moving the ball after the catch. They’ve added Marvin Jones, a big bodied redzone target who had 10 TD’s in 2013 and put up the highest contested catch score to date from Reception Perception with at 90%. They’ve also added Boldin. I expect him to be be another pressure release valve along with TE Ebron. Word has it Boldin stays in great shape and is close to 240lbs. I cannot wait to see somebody get trucked by a Lions wideout. To go back to the Packers comparison, although Calvin leaves a gaping hole he really hasn’t been Calvin for a while now. And, I just don’t think there’s any way Tate or Jones become Davante Adams. There’s a lot more depth here than what Rodgers had, and the scheme should help as well.
The Lions could run into trouble offensively in weeks 3,6,8,9,10 (bye) and 12. Potential roster mates could be:
Eli Manning pick 8.04
Tough Weeks: 4,5,7,8 (bye), 10
Ben Roethlisberger 6.04
Tough Weeks: 2,4,5,7,8 (bye),14,15
Jay Cutler 18.01…free
1,7,8,9 (bye),15,17
I’d go with Eli if you’re of the mind that you want to draft two guys that will be relatively trustworthy. I’d let Eli borrow the car. Cutler without Gase I’m not sure about. Although, when teams promote from within following a well liked guy like Gase, I figure they’re probably running mostly the same scheme. Ben is the most expensive choice of the bunch and I don’t think I’d want to pair two that are as volatile but remember, professional athlete.
Eli Manning pick 8.04
Something about Eli makes me want to believe in him. But, I look at his numbers and they make me wonder why. This is a guy who can be so good. A QB7 finish against BUF in week 4, QB 2 against SFO in week 5, and then against Philadelphia in week 6 he’s QB 27. I’m sure that burned a lot of people.
If you’re going to hate Bortles for throwing picks, 18 and 17 in his first 2 years, Eli has thrown over 20 in a season 3 times. I think once you get past a certain mark with QB’s, this is just what it is. You’re trying to predict which games their alter ego appears in and you try to avoid the landmines. Ben McAdoo’s offense will have something today about turnovers. The West Coast offense is great for getting the ball out of the QB’s hands, and giving quick, easy outlets.
Eli is definitely a guy with upside. In 2015 he finished as the QB 2 on the week 3 times, and in fairly predictable fashion against, SFO, NO, and MIA. On the season he gave you 8 QB 1 (top 12) starts. If you’re going to take someone who in all likelihood will throw picks somewhere in the teens, you want that risk to have this kind of upside. The year, Eli has weapons that make many teams around the league envious. And as my most shining endorsement, he’s currently the only QB on my roster in my home league.
The Giants could have tough weeks in 4,5,7,8 (bye), and 10. Not a bad schedule
Andy Dalton pick 11.11
Tough Weeks 1,3,6,9 (bye), 11
Ryan Fitzpatrick pick 13:04
Tough Weeks: 1,2,3,4,6,10, 11 (bye), 12, 16, 17
Jay Cutler 18.01…free
1,7,8,9 (bye),15,17
I’m nervous about Dalton this year. But I can’t deny that these two schedules seem to meet up. And, taking him as a second QB behind Manning really manages your exposure to Bad Dalton, which is a theme that runs through just about every QB after pick 8.01. I really like Fitzpatrick. He’s being picked out as a candidate for regression along with Bortles. What do these two have in common? It’s weapons, specifically I’d like to point out Decker. Fitzpatrick’s WR2, is like white Dez Bryant, he just has a way of scoring touchdowns. When you do it for this long it’s real.
Phillip Rivers pick 9.01
Rivers is probably the best player on this list, but the Chargers just can’t seem to put a surrounding cast together. Things look good on paper, Keenan Allen, Benjamin, newcomer Tyrelle Williams, not to mention Woodhead and Gordon, but how often is everyone healthy and on the field at the same time? Sooner or later I think the Chargers’ luck has to regress towards the mean, which would absolutely be positive. Things may eventually break right for this team.
Rivers is an above average QB who has massive opportunity. His team ran more passing plays than any other in 2015, and he was #2 in yards. With the return of Keenan Allen, I’m excited about his possibilities. Rivers managed to put that #2 yardage together with a line that was a revolving door of injury. If Gordon takes any step forward at all, which may only require the offensive line not to be decimated by injury, Rivers could put a second half to go with his first in 2015. In weeks 18 he was a starting QB (112) in 5 of 8 weeks. In the second half of the season I would’ve definitely sat him against DEN and KC. Besides those games he was he was at worst a high end QB2. That may sound like cherry picking, but that’s the platoon concept. I’m not starting any of these guys against a top 10 defense if I can help it.
I like Rivers this year, especially if his top weapons are even close to the field. The downside may be the schedule. They will face tougher defenses in weeks 1,6,8,11(bye),12,14, &17
Eli Manning pick 8.04
Tough Weeks: 4,5,7,8 (bye), 10
Ben Roethlisberger 6.04
Tough Weeks: 2,4,5,7,8 (bye),14,15
If everything goes as ffcalculator says it will you’ll end up spending an 8th and 9th round pick to roster Rivers and Manning. Between the two of them I would expect a QB1 performance week in and week out, with an occasional land mine from Eli. Again, at the 6th round Roethlisberger just feels very expensive for a QB without his WR2.
Tony Romo pick 10.03
The concerns with Romo are obvious. But, his clavicle is in one piece for now and his back probably hasn’t been right since Jason Witten was fast. But, I’m willing to take a shot with Romo because even if he goes down replacement level is pretty high at the position. And, you’re taking him with a backup. By the time Romo’s clavicle is split like the wishbone at Thanksgiving you will have had a chance to see who Dalton, Cutler, and Tyrod are, or you go to a more temporary solution and start streaming. So that’s baked in to drafting Romo. If you’re in a league where QB’s are hoarded and stashed, and your waiver wire opportunities are less than exciting, then I’d go elsewhere.
Having said that, there are reasons to roll the dice. If we go back to 2014, Romo was a QB1 in eight of his starts, and some of his QB 2 weeks were over 20 points, so not bad. Romo is a low opportunity, high efficiency QB. Unfortunately, he does play for a team that isn’t really interested in lighting up the scoreboard, but he has a great line and the premier red zone target in the league. The best proof, in my mind, that Romo is a good football player is that in 2014 his WR’s were rated the most efficient WR unit in the league by playerprofiler.com. Can we we even name one besides Dez? The other two were Terrence Williams and Devin Street. That’s the most efficient group in the NFL, because the guy who throws them the ball is solid. That year he was #1 in Production Premium, Passer Rating, QBR, YPA, & AY/A. I think this is especially relevant with Ezekiel Elliot’s arrival. 2016 could look a lot like 2014.
The combination that I like the best with Romo, is a player I haven’t yet discussed. That player is Tom Brady. In case you missed it, Brady will be out for the first 4 weeks. Romo has a pretty favorable schedule in those weeks, playing the Giants, Redskins, Bears, and 49ers. If you use the 6.09 to take Brady, and then the 10.03 for Romo, you should be set. Brady is expensive, especially without the first 4 weeks, but Romo is pretty cheap. And, he’s a good enough real life QB to lean on in if you really don’t like New England’s opponent.
To say just a bit more about Tom Brady, he’s a fantastic QB. The NEP offense is known much more for their short game and when Brady and Edelman have the machine running it’s a thing of beauty. He was the #2 QB last year. That’s why even with nearly 1⁄4 of the season lost he’s still a 6th round pick. In 2015, Brady was a QB1 in every game except the bye in the first 10 weeks, and overall gave owners 11 QB1 weeks with 5 top 5 finishes. As I mentioned, he does have a tough schedule, but if he gets on another tear it may not matter who they’re playing. The truth is we don’t really know what these defenses are yet anyways. Pairing Brady with Romo should give you an option you feel good about pretty much every week. If you’re not crazy about Romo, I’d pair him with a streamer.
Cowboys tough match up weeks: 5,6,7 (bye) ,12 Other guys you could pair with Romo include:
Ben Roethlisberger 6.04 Tough Weeks: 2,4,5,7,8 (bye),14,15
Andy Dalton: pick 11.11 Tough Weeks 1,3,6,9 (bye), 11
Jay Cutler 18.01…free 1,7,8,9 (bye),15,17
Philip Rivers pick 8.12 Tough weeks: 1,6,8,11 (bye),12, 14,17
Honorable Mentions Jameis Winston The Bucs schedule looks rough to me. If you like Winston, plan to stream as well.
Tom Brady I mentioned him in the Romo section, I like the two of them as a pair. Otherwise, paying a round 6 pick for a suspended QB is too much. If you’ve got to have him, I like Romo, as a compliment.
Andy Dalton There’s too much in flux in Cincinnati. Hue Jackson is gone, and so are Jones and Sanu. I’d keep my eyes on Dalton as a waiver add if he goes undrafted, otherwise I’m just passing.
