Everyone knew Georgia Tech was going to be bad this season. The buzz around Georgia was slightly more positive. Now these two teams – who each sit at 4-4 – square off in Athens in a game the winning school will be able to point toward. Their seasons may end in conference tournaments, but at least one will be able to tell recruits that they’re the best team in the State (shhhhh….don’t tell Georgia State).
The State of Georgia isn’t steeped in basketball tradition. Besides Georgia and Georgia Tech there is Mercer, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Kennesaw State and Savannah State. Combined, against Division I opponents, these schools are 24-29 (0.452). Georgia was a 10-seed last year, and Georgia Tech was a 10-seed the year prior. The best chance this season is likely for Georgia State to win the tough Colonial Athletic Association.
Georgia enters on a 3-game losing streak (Xavier, Colorado, Cincinnati) and their best win on the season is Notre Dame. 5* freshman Kentavious Caldwell Pope has been somewhat disappointing, primarily for his inability to take good shots. He’s using over 26% of Georgia’s possessions and has inexplicably insisted on taking more than 59% of his shots from beyond the arc (where he’s making 30%). The rest of his game has been solid. He’s shooting 51% on 2s, has an exceptionally low turnover rate (though that’s partially due to settling for 3s) and is 10th in the SEC in steals. Senior Gerald Robinson still hasn’t found the game he left at Tennessee State when he transferred. He’s the 2nd highest volume player in the SEC (30.1% of UGA’s possessions), and though he has the 2nd highest assist rate in the SEC, he also has the 2nd highest turnover rate in the SEC for any player who uses more than 20% of their team’s possessions. Without much help from the rest of the roster, this adds up to a team that is 257th in 2pt%, 266th in 3pt% and they compound this by not getting to the line (306th). But on the other side of the floor Georgia has been very solid. They don’t force turnovers and they put too many people on the line, but for a small team they really get out and contest shots. Teams are only converting 45% of 2s and 30% of 3s.
Georgia Tech enters on a 2-game losing streak (Northwestern and Tulane), and their best win this year is VCU. Tech has a lot of similarities to the Bulldogs. They’re a top-50 defense coupled with an offense barely keeping below 200. Georgia Tech shares Georgia’s woes from beyond the arc, but they shoot over 51% on 2s. Their problem is turnovers. Currently they’re coughing it up on 23.5% of their trips. Brian Gregory needs to get that corrected, and quick.
Sophomore Kammeon Holsey have shown impressive growth in his offensive game, but he’s not capable of carrying a team. Holsey is averaging 10.4 a game and is shooting over 69% from the floor. The rest of the roster hasn’t made too much of an impression. Glen Rice Jr started the season serving a 3-game suspension and has led the team in scoring since his return. But he still hasn’t recovered his stroke from his freshman season, and he never gets to the line.
The key is that the Yellow Jackets are bigger than Georgia, and are better rebounders. Tech is 31st nationally in offensive boards, and 21st in defensive boards. Daniel Miller and Glen Rice Jr both average more than 7 a game.
Georgia is a 3.5 point favorite (meaning this would essentially be a pick ’em on a neutral floor). The game tips at 7 EST on ESPN3.
