When a school lands an elite high school basketball player something happens to the fans. On message boards, on Twitter, on Facebook, mostly rational people erupt with comparisons that inevitably place the new commitment alongside some recent one-and-done player with a similar game. Most fans don’t consider the potential for greatness – they assume it. But not all consensus 5-star players are made the same. Some aren’t physically ready. Some aren’t emotionally ready. Some have huge holes in their game. Whatever the case, when player X isn’t the team’s star halfway through their first season, fans begin wondering why he’s not more like player Y, who is some other team’s star. But the reason fans do this is because so many freshmen do make huge impacts in their first (and often only) season. It’s one of the great things to watch each season. Who does what, and how soon do they do it?
Here are the top-19 recruits, according to RSCI Hoops, and how they’ve fared in this young season. If you’re not familiar with RSCI, you should be. They look at several recruiting sources and formulate a consensus list. But why 19? Well, I’m including the #2 recruit from the 2012 class – Andre Drummond – who enrolled the last minute at UConn.
Anthony Davis, Kentucky (6’10, 220 lbs)
In his first college game Davis had a double-double (23 points, 10 rebounds) and added 5 blocks for the fun of it. On national tv against Kansas he went for 14 and 6, with 7 blocks. It wasn’t until his third game – Saturday’s rout of Penn State – that he was held in check. Three points, 6 boards, and 3 blocks. For the season he’s shooting 74.3% and averaging 13.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 5 blocks. He was the #1 recruit for a reason. *UPDATE: Davis had 11 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks in a win over Old Dominion.
Austin Rivers, Duke (6’4, 199 lbs)
Rivers didn’t quite make the 1st game splash that Davis did. He scored 16, but on 3-9 shooting, and committed 5 turnovers in a 1-point game against Belmont. His 2nd game – against an over-matched Presbyterian – was better, with 15 pts and 6 assists (to go with 0 turnovers). In front of a national audience in win 903 Rivers struggled, scoring an inefficient 5 points on 7 shots. Against Davidson he went for 17, but again struggled with turnovers committing five. He’s played more minutes than everyone but Seth Curry, his usage rate is near 25%, and his eFG% is just 45.9% – which is 6th among Duke’s eight regulars.
Andre Drummond, Connecticut (6’10, 270)
The first stud who’s really limped out of the gate is Andre Drummond. He didn’t score in his first game. He had 8 and 5 in his 2nd game. And then in game three – his first playing greater than 20 minutes – he scored 11 (on 11 shots) and grabbed 14 rebounds. Finally, UConn fans got a glimpse of the impact he can have. His rebound rate of 23.4 is exceptional, as his is 9.1 block%, and as a statistical oddity 16 of 23 rebounds are on the offensive end. *UPDATE: Drummond had another quiet game on Sunday, with 4 points and 2 rebounds v Coppin State.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky (6’7, 232 lbs)
Kidd-Gilchrist, the 2nd Kentucky Wildcat on this list, also got a nice start with 15 points and 7 rebounds. Game 2 was 12 and 9, and game 3 was 9 and 3. But Kentucky has so much talent that they don’t need him to be the primary scorer – and his usage rate reflects this: 20.8%. *UPDATE: Kidd-Gilchrist had an inefficient 13 points (on 13 shots) and 5 turnovers v ODU. He did add 9 rebounds.
Bradley Beal, Florida (6’3, 207 lbs)
Beal hasn’t shot the ball well at all, and has 43 points (14.3 ppg) on 36 shots, which has led to a 44.4% eFG%. So he’s scoring points, but fellow guards Kenny Boynton and Mike Rosario have been far more efficient. In his first two games he scored 14 points and 17 points, and then had a double-double in game 3 with 12 points and 10 rebounds.
Quincy Miller, Baylor (6’9, 210 lbs)
Add Miller to the list of players who are off to a solid start. With three games of 17 points, 17 points, and 20 points he leads the Bears in scoring. Of course his usage rate is over 31%, so he better be. Baylor would like to see his eFG% go up (51.4%) and his rebound rate compared to the other Bear regulars is only ahead of 5’10 Pierre Jackson and 6’2 Brady Heslip.
James McAdoo, North Carolina (6’9, 220 lbs)
When the big three of John Henson, Tyler Zeller and John Henson all announced their return to campus, McAdoo’s vision of being a one-and-done player disappeared. Now he just won’t get the minutes. In two games he’s played a total of 26 minutes and scored just 10 points. *UPDATE: Against Mississippi Valley State McAdoo played 16 minutes, recording 10 points and 5 rebounds.
Marquis Teague, Kentucky (6’2, 189 lbs)
The third Kentucky player on this list, and the third to get off to a strong start in his first game. Teague had 16 points, 4 assists, 4 rebounds and 3 steals. Since then his raw numbers have dropped, but he’s hitting 45.5% on his 2s and 80% on his 3s (4-5). His downfall is that he is responsible for 12 of Kentucky’s 38 turnovers (31.6%). *UPDATE: Teague turned the ball over 6 more times against ODU, with 2 assists.
LeBryan Nash, Oklahoma State (6’7, 230 lbs)
On to our first player for a school which doesn’t typically get these types of recruits. Nash’s raw numbers have been decent (points: 13, 5, 18; rebounds: 5, 5, 9), but on closer examination he’s only shooting 40.7% on 2s, 11% on 3s, and has been a 1-2 punch in terms of usage with fellow freshman Cesar Guerrero. But Guerrero’s eFG% is more than 15 percentage points higher than Nash’s.
Adonis Thomas, Memphis (6’6, 222 lbs)
With a name like Adonis, you better be good. Unfortunately Memphis has only played one game this season, and Thomas went for 12 points and 3 rebounds.
Cody Zeller, Indiana (6’11, 230 lbs)
Indiana’s 4-0 start hasn’t included any world beaters, but they’ve been solid, and so has Cody Zeller. He’s only attempted 23 shots, yet he’s scored 60 points which is good for 2nd on the team. He’s converted 82.6% of his 2s, which is just stupid. He’s also been excellent at getting to the line (6.6 a game) and he’s made 22-29 (75.8%). His 10 turnovers are the one knock against him, and that’s only if you’re picking nits.
P.J. Hairston, North Carolina (6’5, 220 lbs)
It was expected that Hairston – a tremendous shooter on a team which lacked good shooters – would get more play than James McAdoo simply due to his skillset. But that hasn’t happened. Much like McAdoo his role has been limited and in two games he’s totaled 20 minutes and scored 8 points on 4 shots. As expected, three of those four shots were from beyond the arc. *UPDATE: Hairston had 8 points (on 9 shots) against Mississippi Valley State.
Khem Birch, Pittsburgh (6’9, 220 lbs)
Pitt fans who only casually follow basketball will be wondering what in the world was so hyped about Khem Birch. But the athletic freak (who re-classed from 2012 to 2011) clearly needs time to develop, and Jamie Dixon will give him that time. He’s averaging just over 8 minutes a game, and has scored a total of four points. Birch is a kid who might best be evaluated in his junior season.
Myck Kabongo, Texas (6’1, 169 pounds)
Kabongo has played three games, and the tiny point guard has already made an impression. He only had 6 points and 7 assists in his first game, but in game two filled up the statsheet with 18 points, 9 assists and 7 rebounds, and in game three he had 13 points and 3 assists. His shooting has been atrocious (31.3 eFG%), but if he learns to focus more on distribution he’ll be an All-Conference player. Texas doesn’t need volume in the shot department, they need someone to make sure all of the high volume shooters take those shots from advantageous position.
Josiah Turner, Arizona (6’3, 192 lbs)
Coach Sean Miller is going to need Turner to fill a valuable role if Arizona is going to meet their team goals for the season, which is likely why Turner got benched for the 3rd game of the season. Afterwards, he reacted well by apologizing to his teammates for not playing or practicing hard. But words are easier than actions. Through four games he’s been miserable – 41.7% on 2s, 14.3% on 3s, and a turnover every 9.8 minutes. But to be fair, his best game was his most recent game: 8 points, 2 assists and 0 turnovers in 17 minutes.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia (6’5 200 lbs)
Calwell-Pope is another player who looks good if you focus on his raw stats: 13.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 2nd most minutes on the team. And his three game run of 15 points, 3 rebounds; 11 points, 6 rebounds; 14 points, 6 rebounds, looks good. But dig deeper and his eFG% is only 43.8% due to 26.3% 3-point shooting. Why a player who shoots 69.2% on 2s takes 59% of his shots from beyond the arc is beyond me, but that’s up to Coach Mark Fox to figure out.
Jabari Brown, Oregon (6’5 205 lbs)
Oregon has only played two games, and Brown has yet to be a positive factor. He had 7 points on 7 shots in a loss to Vanderbilt, and 5 points on 4 shots in his next game. Couple that with 11 turnovers in 51 minutes and Oregon fans are the most likely to be comparing their guy to everyone else on this list. *UPDATE: Brown announced on Sunday that he is leaving the Oregon team.
Branden Dawson, Michigan State (6’6 220 lbs)
Dawson’s minutes have declined with each game (35, 27, 15) which isn’t a good sign, unless you consider that his field goal efficiency has gone in the opposite direction (40%, 67%, 88%). In total he’s averaging 10.7 points, good for third on the team. The fact that he’s turned the ball over every 8.5 minutes isn’t helping his cause.
Tony Wroten, Washington (6’5 205 lbs)
On the high flying Huskies offense, Wroten isn’t looked at to be the man. He’s fourth on the team in scoring (12.0 ppg), and had his best game (18 points, 7 boards) in his first game. Since then he’s just 7-20 from the field, though he has notched 10 assists. His assist rate is off the charts, but so is his usage rate (36.4%). On a team with C.J. Wilcox, Terrance Ross and Abdul Gaddy, Wroten needs to let the his team’s possessions end with other players besides himself. *UPDATE: In a loss to Saint Louis, Wroten had 14 points and 5 turnvoers, and took more shots (11) than anyone but Terrance Ross.
Kyle Wiltjer, Kentucky (6’9 239 lbs)
Oregon seems the most likely place to have an elite player who also leaves the state. Wiltjer is the latest, and also the fourth player on this list who is from the Kentucky Wildcats. Despite only playing 3 minutes in their first real test against Kansas, Wiltjer has scored 33 points (11.0 ppg), primarily by hitting 64.7% of his 2s. He’s also only turned the ball over twice in 50 minutes of play. *UPDATE: Against ODU, Wiltjer had 3 points and 5 boards in 11 minutes.
