1. Tulane has been generating a buzz with their 11-1 record, though it’s not deserved. Two of those wins came outside of Division I, and 8 of the other 9 came against teams ranked 270th or worse by Ken Pomeroy. And they lost to Wofford (204th). So why not Wyoming? The Cowboys are now 10-1. Their loss is to a slightly better team (Wisconsin Green Bay – 185th), and after Tuesday’s win over UC-Irvine eight of their wins are better than Tulane’s 2nd best. I’m not saying that Wyoming is a special team, but they’re more deserving of undeserved buzz than the Green Wave.
2. Michigan’s offense has been erratic. They’ve ranged from 0.95 points per possession against an NAIA team to nearly 1.30 against Oakland and UCLA. The problem is they’re not generating the hidden points. Entering last night’s game with Arkansas Pine Bluff (a really bad team) Michigan was 267th in offensive rebounding and 261st at getting to the line. Those trends really showed against the Golden Lions as Michigan only attempted eight free throws (for a 16% FTA/FGA rate) and grabbed just seven offensive boards off 28 missed shots (25%). Compounding this was that they turned the ball over 19 times in 64 possessions (29.7%). The result was that they failed to score a point per possession against what was arguably the weakest defense they’re going to see the rest of the way. Michigan may be able to weather their poor offensive rebounding and inability to get to the line, but when the Wolverines combine that with struggles in areas in which they’re typically strong (taking care of the ball, 2-pt shooting, etc…) then anyone is capable of beating them.
3. Belmont fell to Middle Tennessee State and already people are stating that they need to win the A-Sun Tournament in order to make the dance. Their problem is that the RPI is going to get them. They lost to Duke (by 1 point), to Memphis and they’ve split with Middle Tennessee, a good team which crushed UCLA and Akron. But they don’t have any resume builders left. They play Marshall twice, which is they’re only hope.
4. Mississippi State can’t force turnovers, and it’s going to bite them. They’ve got a great record (9-1) and some solid wins, though its tough to maintain that against a more difficult conference schedule if you’re typically playing with fewer possessions than your opponents. Tuesday’s opponent was Florida Atlantic, who came in averaging 0.82 points per possession against top-50 teams. Against the Bulldogs they scored 1.05, and the reason was turnovers, or lack thereof. MSU only turned FAU over 8 times in 65 possession game. FAU scored 1.2 per trip when they didn’t turn the ball over, so it’s easy to see how last night’s 75-68 score would have been a lot more comfortable for MSU had they forced a few more turnovers.
5. Despite missing two starters Milwaukee was able to hang with Wisconsin, and had them in a one possession battle as late as 3:30 remaining. The Badgers ended up winning 60-54 in a 57 possession game. Scoring 0.95 per trip doesn’t sound like much, but zero of Wisconsin’s eleven opponents have scored at least a point per trip. And only UNC got closer than Milwaukee. If Milwaukee can get healthy they’re an intriguing team, and should be able to give Cleveland State all they can handle in the Horizon.
