The elite eight: Updated win shares for the undefeated teams

The past ten days has been rough on undefeated teams, as we've gone from 15 to 8. One thing that illustrates is just how difficult it is to make it through a regular season unscathed. The team with the highest probability of winning them all (Florida) fell on the road to Arizona. And the team with the lowest probability (Eastern Kentucky) also lost.

If you aren't sure what win shares are or how they work, read this.

Here's the table, and the 'Underdog?' column shows how many games Pomeroy projects for each team where they won't be the favorite. The other columns are self explanatory:

Team Remaining Games Underdog? % Perfect Win Share Record
Syracuse 21 2 0.30% 27-4
Duke 21 0 6.80% 29-2
Michigan 20 6 0.03% 25-6
Arizona 21 0* 1.90% 25-3
Cincinnati 20 4 0.01% 24-7
Illinois 20 11 0.00% 22-10
New Mexico 19 7 0.01% 24-7
Wyoming 20 5 0.00% 23-7

Duke, after getting by Temple on neutral floor, now has the highest chance (6.8%) of an undefeated regular season of any team at any point this season.

Arizona quadrupled their chance with a win against Florida, though they still have unnamed opponents in their holiday tournament. And Cincinnati and New Mexico got on the board (0.01%). There's a chance! Illinois and Wyoming? Not happening.