I had the honor of talking to Clark Kellogg yesterday, CBS Sports’ lead college basketball analyst, whose insights on Big Ten basketball was valuable in assembling this story. Kellogg was Ohio State’s MVP in 1982 and currently does Big Ten broadcasts for CBS in addition to his duties for the Indiana Pacers. Kellogg, along with Barry Larkin, Lisa Leslie and other former D-I athletes are advisors for the Capital One Cup, which awards a combined $400,000 in scholarships to the best men’s and best women’s Division I athletics programs in the country for excellence in on-field performance.
As I’ve written before, this was supposed to be the season for Northwestern basketball. The season the kings of the NIT tournament would finally make the NCAAs–for the first time in program history–with wunderkind John Shurna healthy in his senior year.
Non-conference play was smooth sailing with the ‘Cats’ only losses coming against NCAA tournament locks Baylor and Creighton and wins over Seton Hall, LSU, Georgia Tech and Stony Brook.
NU looked solid still in early rough-and-tumble Big Ten play with wins over Penn State and then-No. 6 Michigan St. to go with one-possession losses to Illinois and Michigan. But junior guard Alex Marcotullio suffered a concussion in Northwestern’s zenith moment–in their win over Michigan St.–that combined with sophomore Jershon Cobb’s bothersome hip tendinitis for a downright foul road trip and back-to-back 20+ point losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota that might put Northwestern’s NCAA hopes in serious jeopardy. Deja vu all over again.
“I’ve felt [Northwestern] had a chance in the last couple years [to make the NCAA tournament], and unfortunately some personnel issues creeped in and injuries de-railed them a bit,” Clark Kellogg told me. “They got off to another decent start this season, got into conference play, and just haven’t been able to sustain any real positive momentum.”
Still, Kellogg noted, “It’s way too early to start discounting teams.”
Chicago Tribune sports writer Teddy Greenstein thinks the Wildcats need to win three of their next four games (Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois and Iowa) in order to remain in the conversation for the Big Dance. One of those teams (Illinois) already handed Northwestern a loss (at home, no less), so the other three are of utmost importance.
That brings us to Saturday.
Marcotullio and Cobb are both back (Marcotullio actually played off the bench against Minnesota), and the Wildcats welcome Purdue, who has also been struggling of late. The Boilermakers lost back-to-back games to Michigan and Michigan State.
Kellogg thought that with Bill Carmody’s team healthy, they’ll be hard to beat at home.
“I think Northwestern is such a system team, and when they’re operating and executing their system, they’re really hard to beat,” Kellogg said. “The fact that they’re at home helps. Being at home and that that they’re coming off losses on the road against two really good teams. Now you get home and you try to get well.”
Pomeroy too looks favorably upon Northwestern Saturday, giving the Wildcats the slim 52 percent nod, but the conference efficiencies reveal some frightening realities (Marcotullio or not).
NU has scored 0.97 ppp in conference play (10th) and allowed 1.10 ppp (11th). Purdue ranks fifth and eighth, respectively, in the same categories, and is most vulnerable on the defensive end. The Boilermaker backcourt is the worst in the conference at defending the three–a boon for Shurna and Drew Crawford who are both drilling threes at a rate of 42.5 percent. That’s especially important, though, when your frontcourt is notably terrible at grabbing offensive boards (334th in the nation), as has been the case for Northwestern basketball at least since Carmody took over (never better than 252nd in the nation since 2003).
Handling tough losses well has been a theme in the Big Ten this season. Something I thought Jared Sullinger and Ohio State had done especially well after falling to Indiana and Illinois.
Kellog, a former Ohio State player himself, weighed in: “I had [Ohio State’s] game against Indiana–a very impressive win at home. But it was impressive because of how they defended, and how Jared took on the responsibility of being better defensively. He publicly talked about how he needed to play better at that end of the floor. That to me is a sign of not just saying what people want you to say, but actually saying it, meaning it, and acting on it. When you see that from your best player it bodes extremely well for the rest of the squad.
Shurna would be wise to follow Sullinger’s lead, and shoulder the load coming into Saturday’s big game. No one can really say that Purdue can make or break Northwestern’s post-season Saturday, but certainly a win here would go a long way.
