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Breaking Down the Brackets: Midwest Region

Posted by on Mar 18, 2014 18:37

Welcome to breaking down the brackets. Earlier, we covered the South region. Now we take a look over to the Midwest region. This is the region that is sure to get the most interest as the tournament goes on. The 1 seed is not even the favorite in the Sweet 16. This should be a hell of a ride.

Ken Pom

  1. 2 – Louisville
  2. 5 – Wichita State
  3. 7 – Duke
  4. 13 – Tennessee
  5. 14 – Michigan
  6. 17 – Kentucky
  7. 27 – Iowa
  8. 34 – Saint Louis
  9. 39 – Texas
  10. 42 – Xavier
  11. 44 – Kansas St
  12. 47 – Arizona St
  13. 52 – UMass
  14. 66 – NC State
  15. 67 – Manhattan
  16. 99 – Mercer
  17. 173 – Cal Poly
  18. 184 – Wofford
  19. 237 – Texas Southern

Ken Pom Offense

  1. 2 – Duke
  2. 3 – Michigan
  3. 4 – Iowa
  4. 8 – Wichita St
  5. 10 – Louisville
  6. 19 – Kentucky
  7. 28 – NC State
  8. 29 – Tennessee
  9. 37 – Xavier
  10. 78 – Texas
  11. 94 – UMass
  12. 97 – Arizona St
  13. 104 – Kansas St
  14. 116 – Mercer
  15. 135 – Texas Southern
  16. 139 – Manhattan
  17. 176 – St Louis
  18. 197 – Cal Poly
  19. 237 – Wofford

Ken Pom Defense

  1. 6 – Louisville
  2. 8 – St Louis
  3. 10 – Wichita St
  4. 16 – Tennessee
  5. 25 – Kansas St
  6. 27 – Arizona St
  7. 34 – Kentucky
  8. 36 – Texas
  9. 42 – Manhattan
  10. 43 – UMass
  11. 69 – Xavier
  12. 102 – Duke
  13. 103 – Mercer
  14. 104 – Michigan
  15. 126 – Iowa
  16. 131 – Wofford
  17. 144 – NC State
  18. 164 – Cal Poly
  19. 316 – Texas Southern

Points per Possession – Offense

  1. 1.19 – Duke
  2. 1.17 – Louisville
  3. 1.17 – Wichita State
  4. 1.17 – Michigan
  5. 1.15 – Mercer
  6. 1.13 – Iowa
  7. 1.11 – Wofford
  8. 1.1 – Texas Southern
  9. 1.1 – Kentucky
  10. 1.1 – Xavier
  11. 1.09 – Tennessee
  12. 1.07 – Manhattan
  13. 1.06 – Texas
  14. 1.06 – NC State
  15. 1.05 – Cal Poly
  16. 1.05 – Kansas State
  17. 1.03 – UMass
  18. 1.01 – Arizona State
  19. 1.01 – St Louis

Boy there are a lot of good offenses in this group of 19. The difference between the great offenses and the lesser ones is very stark.

Points per Possession – Defense

  1. 0.88 – Louisville
  2. 0.91 – Wichita St
  3. 0.94 – St Louis
  4. 0.95 – Manhattan
  5. 0.96 – Mercer
  6. 0.96 – Tennessee
  7. 0.99 – Wofford
  8. 1 – Tx Southern
  9. 1 – UMass
  10. 1.01 – Kentucky
  11. 1.01 – Arizona St
  12. 1.04 – Duke
  13. 1.05 – Texas
  14. 1.05 – Kansas State
  15. 1.06 – Cal Poly
  16. 1.07 – Iowa
  17. 1.07 – Michigan
  18. 1.09 – Xavier
  19. 1.1 – NC State

The same could be said for the defenses. There look to be some clear major areas of excellence and some major areas of worry. Except for Wichita and Louisville really.

Offensive Efficiency

  1. 119.5 – Duke
  2. 117 – Louisville
  3. 116.9 – Wichita St
  4. 116.8 – Michigan
  5. 115 – Mercer
  6. 112.6 – Iowa
  7. 110.7 – Wofford
  8. 110.4 – Tx Southern
  9. 110 – Kentucky
  10. 109.9 – Xavier
  11. 108.7 – Tennessee
  12. 107.2 – Manhattan
  13. 106.5 – Texas
  14. 105.9 – NC State
  15. 105.5 – Cal Poly
  16. 105.4 – Kansas State
  17. 103.3 – UMass
  18. 101.1 – Arizona St
  19. 100.6 – St Louis

Defensive Efficiency

  1. 88.4 – Louisville
  2. 91.3 – Wichita St
  3. 94.2 – St Louis
  4. 95.4 – Manhattan
  5. 95.6 – Mercer
  6. 96 – Tennessee
  7. 99.3 – Wofford
  8. 100.2 – Tx Southern
  9. 100.3 – UMass
  10. 100.5 – Kentucky
  11. 101.4 – Arizona St
  12. 104.5 – Duke
  13. 105 – Texas
  14. 105.1 – Kansas St
  15. 105.9 – Cal Poly
  16. 106.5 – Iowa
  17. 106.8 – Michigan
  18. 109.1 – Xavier
  19. 110.4 – NC State

Effective Field Goal % (Weighs 3 pointers)

  1. 56.9 – Michigan
  2. 54.8 – Mercer
  3. 54.3 – Louisville
  4. 53.7 – Tx Southern
  5. 53.2 – Wichita St
  6. 52.2 – Manhattan
  7. 52.1 – Xavier
  8. 52 – Duke
  9. 51.2 – Wofford
  10. 50.4 – Kansas St
  11. 50.3 – Iowa
  12. 50.1 – St Louis
  13. 49.6 – UMass
  14. 49.4 – Arizona St
  15. 49.3 – Tennessee
  16. 48.6 – Kentucky
  17. 48.2 – NC State
  18. 46.7 – Texas
  19. 46 – Cal Poly

Those last 5 teams look to be in quite a bit of trouble in the first couple of games if they can’t get shots to fall. Something none of them have really done consistently.

Defensive eFG%

  1. 43.2 – Louisville
  2. 43.8 – Wichita St
  3. 44.7 – St Louis
  4. 44.8 – Manhattan
  5. 45 – Tennessee
  6. 46 – Mercer
  7. 46.1 – Texas
  8. 46.2 – Kentucky
  9. 46.4 – Kansas St
  10. 47.2 – Tx Southern
  11. 48.1 – UMass
  12. 48.4 – Arizona St
  13. 49.2 – Wofford
  14. 49.3 – NC State
  15. 50 – Duke
  16. 50.2 – Cal Poly
  17. 51.1 – Michigan
  18. 51.4 – Xavier
  19. 51.6 – Iowa

Free Throw %

  1. 76.8 – Michigan
  2. 73.4 – Duke
  3. 73.1 – Iowa
  4. 72.7 – Wichita St
  5. 72.6 – Xavier
  6. 72.5 – Tennessee
  7. 71.8 – Mercer
  8. 71.4 – Cal Poly
  9. 70 – Arizona St
  10. 70 – Tx Southern
  11. 69.8 – St Louis
  12. 69.2 – Kentucky
  13. 69.2 – Texas
  14. 67.7 – Kansas St
  15. 67.7 – UMass
  16. 67.3 – NC State
  17. 66.2 – Louisville
  18. 65.7 – Wofford
  19. 63.2 – Manhattan

Offensive Rebounding %

  1. 40.8 – Texas
  2. 40.7 – Kentucky
  3. 38 – Tennessee
  4. 37.3 – Duke
  5. 36.9 – Iowa
  6. 35.5 – Wichita St
  7. 35 – Louisville
  8. 34.4 – NC State
  9. 33.6 – Manhattan
  10. 33 – Kansas St
  11. 33 – Xavier
  12. 32.9 – Mercer
  13. 32.7 – UMass
  14. 32.6 – Cal Poly
  15. 32 – Tx Southern
  16. 31.4 – Wofford
  17. 27.3 – St Louis
  18. 26.6 – Michigan
  19. 22.1 – Arizona St

Defensive Rebounding %

  1. 73.8 – Wichita St
  2. 73.6 – Tennessee
  3. 73.2 – Arizona St
  4. 72.9 – Wofford
  5. 71.9 – Tx Southern
  6. 71.4 – Kentucky
  7. 71.2 – Iowa
  8. 71 – St Louis
  9. 70.8 – Mercer
  10. 70.4 – Xavier
  11. 70.2 – Michigan
  12. 68.8 – UMass
  13. 67.8 – Texas
  14. 67.1 – Manhattan
  15. 66.7 – Cal Poly
  16. 66.4 – Louisville
  17. 66.1 – Duke
  18. 65.9 – Kansas St
  19. 61.8 – NC State

Interesting to note that some of the best offensive rebounding teams are running head up against some of the best defensive rebounding teams. Clearly there are going to be some points of emphasis as it relates to rebounding the ball.

Turnover % – Offense

  1. 13.5 – Cal Poly
  2. 13.7 – Wofford
  3. 14.2 – Duke
  4. 15.4 – Michigan
  5. 15.7 – Louisville
  6. 16.2 – Iowa
  7. 16.3 – NC State
  8. 16.8 – Mercer
  9. 16.9 – Wichita St
  10. 17.3 – Arizona St
  11. 17.7 – Kentucky
  12. 17.9 – Xavier
  13. 18 – Texas
  14. 18.2 – UMass
  15. 18.6 – Kansas St
  16. 18.8 – Tennessee
  17. 19.4 – Tx Southern
  18. 19.9 – Manhattan
  19. 19.9 – St Louis

A lot of very good ballhandling teams in this region.

Turnover % – Defense

  1. 24.8 – Louisville
  2. 22.6 – Manhattan
  3. 20 – Mercer
  4. 20 – UMass
  5. 19.2 – Cal Poly
  6. 19.2 – Wofford
  7. 19.1 – St Louis
  8. 18.6 – Iowa
  9. 18.5 – Duke
  10. 18.3 – NC State
  11. 18.2 – Wichita St
  12. 17.5 – Arizona St
  13. 16.7 – Michigan
  14. 16.6 – Kansas St
  15. 16.6 – Kentucky
  16. 16.2 – Tennessee
  17. 16.1 – Tx Southern
  18. 16.1 – Xavier
  19. 14.8 – Texas

A couple of very tough defenses and them some lighter defenses shake up the bracket.

Top 19 Scorers

  1. 24.8 – TJ Warren – NC State
  2. 21.1 – Aaric Murray, TSU
  3. 19.3 – Jabari Parker, Duke
  4. 19.2 – George Beamon, Manhattan
  5. 18.6 – Jordan McRae, Tennessee / Jahii Carson, Arizona St
  6. 18.3 – Russ Smith, Louisville
  7. 17.5 – Nik Stauskas, Michigan
  8. 17.3 – Roy Devyn Marble, Iowa
  9. 17.1 – Semaj Christon, Xavier
  10. 16.3 – Rodney Hood, Duke
  11. 15.8 – Cleanthony Early, Wichita St
  12. 15.7 – Chaz Williams, UMass
  13. 15.6 – Karl Cochran, Wofford / Marcus Foster, Kansas St
  14. 15 – Jermaine Marshall, Arizona St / Julius Randle, Kentucky
  15. 14.7 – Langston Hall, Mercer / Jarnell Stokes, Tennessee
  16. 14.5 – James Young, Kentucky
  17. 14.2 – Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
  18. 14 – Dwayne Evans, St Louis
  19. 13.8 – Aaron Harrison, Kentucky

Top 15 3 Pointers Made

  1. 82 – Langston Hall, Mercer
  2. 80 – Nik Stauskas, Michigan
  3. 78 – Jermaine Marshall, Arizona St / Marcus Foster, Kansas St
  4. 77 – Karl Cochran, Wofford / Shane Richards, Manhattan
  5. 75 – Jordan McRae, Tennessee
  6. 73 – James Young, Kentucky
  7. 72 – Ralston Turner, NC State
  8. 69 – Rodney Hood, Duke
  9. 68 – Russ Smith, Louisville
  10. 66 – Bud Thomas, Mercer
  11. 64 – Andre Dawkins, Duke
  12. 63 – Ron Baker, Wichita St
  13. 62 – Jonathan Gilling, Arizona St
  14. 60 – Kyle Odister, Cal Poly
  15. 59 – Luke Hancock, Louisville / Cleanthony Early, Wichita St

Top 15 Rebounders

  1. 357 – Julius Randle, Kentucky
  2. 341 – Jarnell Stokes, Tennessee
  3. 299 – Jabari Parker, Duke
  4. 279 – Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
  5. 274 – Lee Skinner, Wofford
  6. 271 – Jeronne Maymon, Tennessee
  7. 266 – Cameron Ridley, Texas
  8. 265 – Jordan Bachynski, Arizona St
  9. 255 – Cady Lalanne, UMass
  10. 253 – Aaric Murray, TSU
  11. 237 – TJ Warren, NC State
  12. 235 – Matt Stainbrook, Xavier
  13. 229 – Amile Jefferson, Duke
  14. 227 – Chris Eversley, Cal Poly
  15. 225 – Daniel Coursey, Mercer

Top 15 Assists

  1. 224 – Chaz Williams, UMass
  2. 190 – Langston Hall, Mercer
  3. 179 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita St
  4. 171 – Madarious Gibbs, TSU
  5. 159 – Russ Smith, Louisville
  6. 153 – Jordair Jett, St Louis
  7. 149 – Quinn Cook, Duke
  8. 147 – Dee Davis, Xavier
  9. 144 – Jahii Carson, Arizona St
  10. 138 – Semaj Christon, Xavier
  11. 130 – Isaiah Taylor, Texas
  12. 129 – Andrew Harrison, Kentucky
  13. 124 – Michael Alvarado, Manhattan / Anthony Barber, NC State / Mike Gesell, Iowa
  14. 121 – Tyler Lewis, NC State
  15. 113 – Roy Devyn Marble, Iowa

Top 7 Steals

  1. 71 – Russ Smith, Louisville
  2. 68 – Chris Jones, Louisville
  3. 66 – Fred Van Vleet, Wichita St
  4. 59 – Roy Devyn Marble, Iowa
  5. 57 – TJ Warren, NC State
  6. 53 – Karl Cochran, Wofford
  7. 52 – Langston Hall, Mercer

Top 7 Blocks

  1. 132 – Jordan Bachynski, Arizona St
  2. 117 – Rhamel Brown, Manhattan
  3. 101 – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
  4. 85 – Aaric Murray, TSU
  5. 71 – Daniel Coursey, Mercer / Cameron Ridley, Texas / Cady Lalanne, UMass
  6. 46 – Mangok Mathiang, Louisville
  7. 44 – Montrezl Harrell, Louisville

This is the block region. Jordan Bachynski is first and Rhamel Brown is 3rd in the nation in blocks.

Let’s get to some bad predictions.

March 18

12) NC State vs 12) Xavier – 9:10 PM – TruTV

Line: Xavier -3.5

I have to agree towards the line here. State was a bit of surprise team to make the dance. I really like TJ Warren but I just don’t think there is enough to stop the Xavier guards. This should be a fun game.

Xavier 78 NC State 72

March 19

16) Cal Poly vs 16) Texas Southern – 6:40 – TruTV

Line: Cal Poly -3.5

I know that Aaric Murray plays on Texas Southern. They are at the disadvantage of being in the SWAC. I’ll go with them away because what do I care.

Texas Southern 68 Cal Poly 67

11) Iowa vs 11) Tennessee – 9:10 – TruTV

Line: Iowa -2.5

Ever since I cursed Iowa into a series of losses by saying they would win the Big 10, they have looked awful. So awful that I kind of think they will take out Tennessee. I like the makeup of the Vols, but there is something I don’t trust about them. I’m going with the better league. Just like how you always pick SEC against the Big 10 in bowl games.

Iowa 74 Tennessee 72

March 20

5) St Louis vs 12) Xavier – 7:20 – TNT

I really think that whoever plays St Louis in the first round is going to take St Louis out of the field. But for some reason, I can’t really pull the trigger.

4) Louisville vs 13) Manhattan – 9:50 – TNT

Line: Louisville -16

The coach vs former assistant storyline is strong in this one with Steve Masiello up against Rick Pitino. That will probably be the best storyline because I can’t see anyone hanging with Louisville on Thursday night.

Louisville 92 Manhattan 69

2) Michigan vs 15) Wofford – 7:10 – CBS

Line: Michigan -16

This should be a dazzling display of the Michigan offense.

Michigan 83 Wofford 62

7) Texas vs 10) Arizona State – 9:40 – CBS

Line: Texas -1.5

Texas hasn’t played a close game in a while. I don’t expect them to in this one. I’m just not sure if I think that Arizona State will beat them. That is more than enough to make me lean Texas. That way Texas can lose to Michigan by 20.

Texas 78 Arizona State 60

March 21

3) Duke vs 14) Mercer – 12:15 – CBS

Line: Duke -13

A nation will be rooting for the Bears. I really believe that they will keep it close for a half. But that’s just a half. They play two of those.

Duke 84 Mercer 70

6) UMass vs 11) Iowa – 2:45 – CBS

I really don’t think this UMass team is that good. I also think that they are overseeded. By leaning so far away from UMass, that means that they are going to win comfortably. I’m still going with Iowa.

Iowa 70 UMass 65

1)Wichita State vs 16) Texas Southern – 7:10 – CBS

Wichita should enjoy the perks of being a 1 seed very much.

Wichita State 74 Texas Southern 49

8) Kentucky vs 9 ) Kansas State – 9:40 – CBS

Line: Kentucky – 5

So many people are picking Kentucky that I almost want to pick Kansas State as a response to that sure thinking. I’m going with Kentucky because I can’t trust Bruce Weber. You can go ahead and trust him, I’ll trust them to blow it.

Kentucky 68 Kansas State 62

 

About Scott

I write Bearcats Blog and also on the Student Section.

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