Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season is behind us. Like every Week 1, the developments are ripe for overreaction.
Some observers are taking what they saw in Week 1 and jumping to conclusions for the entire season. It’s too early for that.
Here are eight takes that could be laughed at in December.
AFC East
What would a list of overreactions be without Skip Bayless?
On Fox Sports’ “Skip and Shannon: Undisputed,” Bayless declared “the AFC East is already over” after the Patriots defeated the Cardinals 23-21 at Arizona Sunday night without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.
Hold on there, Skip. It’s only Week 1. A lot can happen in the 15 games that remain to be played.
The Jets and Dolphins both faced teams that made the playoffs last year and lost by a combined three points. The Dolphins lost 12-10 at Seattle, where the Seahawks are 32-5 since 2012. The Jets lost 23-22 to the Bengals despite sacking Andy Dalton seven times. Matt Forte ran for 96 yards on 22 carries and so far looks like a good pickup. We’ll see about the Dolphins but the Jets will be heard from before the AFC East title is clinched.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Nobody would dare ask Bill Belichick if Jimmy Garoppolo should remain the Patriots’ starting quarterback when Tom Brady returns from his suspension.
But after Garoppolo led the Patriots on a game-winning field goal drive Sunday night in their 23-21 win over the Cardinals, there could be those who say that the Patriots will need a bigger trophy case for the four Super Bowls Garoppolo will win after Brady retires.
In his first career start, Garoppolo was poised against a top-tier defense, completing 24 of 33 passes for 264 yards and a touchdown. But Belichick and the Patriots had months to prepare their backup quarterback for this game. Garoppolo looks fit to be Brady’s heir apparent. But there’s only one Tom Brady and the Patriots won’t be the same after he retires.
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota
Right now it looks like the Buccaneers made the right decision choosing Jameis Winston over Marcus Mariota with the top pick in the 2015 draft.
Winston threw four touchdown passes Sunday to lead the Buccaneers to 31-24 road win over the Falcons. Mariota, meanwhile, threw two touchdown passes and a pick-six on an ill-advised pass in the Titans’ 25-16 home loss to the Vikings. Mariota also lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.
The Titans took Mariota second in the 2015 draft, and it’s understandable that Winston is regarded as the better pick.
Sometimes “America” is wrong. https://t.co/3PdtvYd3y5
— Andrew Meacham (@torch437) September 13, 2016
However, in Week 1 last season Mariota threw four touchdown passes to lead the Titans to a 42-14 win over Winston’s Buccaneers. Winston threw two TD passes in the game but was picked off twice. Winston didn’t look like the better pick then.
It will take at least until the end of this season to see who the better quarterback is. A look at the 1993 draft, the last draft before Winston and Mariota were born, shows how much time is needed to make a judgement on quarterbacks.
The Patriots took Drew Bledsoe with the first pick and the Seahawks took Rick Mirer with the second pick. Nine games into their second season, Mirer had eight touchdown passes and five interceptions while Bledsoe had 14 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions. Bledsoe was coming off a two-game stretch with no TDs and seven interceptions. Good thing for him there was no Twitter back then.
In Week 11, however, Bledsoe led the 3-6 Patriots back from a 20-3 deficit against the Vikings, throwing three touchdown passes in a 26-20 overtime win. The Patriots won their last seven games and made the playoffs.
Bledsoe made four Pro Bowls in his career, started in Super Bowl XXXI and won a Super Bowl ring in 2001. Mirer finished his career with 50 touchdown passes and 76 interceptions. He played for five teams in an eight-year career.
Time will reveal the answer to the Winston-Mariota debate, if a clearly superior quarterback even emerges.
Brock Osweiler
After the Texans defeated the Bears 23-14 Sunday, owner Bob McNair said that Brock Osweiler is “everything we thought he would be,” according to NFL.com.
Osweiler completed 22 of 35 passes with two touchdowns and an interception. He threw an 18-yard touchdown pass to rookie Will Fuller to give the Texans a 20-14 lead with 12:44 left in the game. That turned out to be the winning touchdown.
The Texans signed Osweiler to a four-year, $72 million contract during the offseason. McNair can’t be blamed for getting excited, but one week isn’t enough to tell if Osweiler really is everything the Texans thought he’d be. For all that money, the Texans had to think Osweiler is the guy who can lead them to their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
Sunday’s win was nice, but the Bears were without cornerback Kyle Fuller and rookie safety Deon Bush. Let’s see how Osweiler does against better defenses and healthier secondaries.
Ezekiel Elliott
This wasn’t the biggest overreaction of Week 1, but even in taking his share of the blame for the Cowboys’ 20-19 to the Giants, Ezekiel Elliott inflated the quality of his debut.
Ezekiel Elliott: “I think I was average [Sunday]. That’s not why I was brought here to be average, so we’ve got a lot of work to get done.”
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) September 12, 2016
Elliott scored a touchdown, but ran for 51 yards on 20 carries. That’s 2.5 yards per carry, sort of below average. USA Today gave the Cowboys’ offensive line a ‘C’ grade, but Elliott was chosen fourth overall in the draft to find whatever holes the offensive line can open up. He knows he has to be better, but the Cowboys would hate to see what he calls a below-average performance.
Lions
USA Today said that the Lions’ 39-35 win at Indianapolis was the kind of win “that could change the course of their season.”
It was a dramatic win. The Lions blew a 21-3 lead and fell behind 35-34 when Andrew Luck threw a 6-yard touchdown pass to Jack Doyle with 37 seconds left. Matthew Stafford then completed three passes for 50 yards to set up Matt Prater’s game-winning 43-yard field goal.
Maybe the emotion of this victory could catapult the Lions to big things in 2016. But don’t forget that the Colts went into the game without cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Darius Butler and safety Clayton Geathers. Then during the game safety T.J. Green left with a knee injury and cornerback Patrick Robinson was sidelined with a concussion.
That left the Colts with Mike Adams, Winston Guy, Darryl Morris and Rashaan Melvin in the secondary. Guy played just two defensive snaps last season. Morris and Melvin just joined the team last week. Morris is primarily a special teams player and Melvin hasn’t played since Week 3 last season.
It’s hard to call this a season-defining win considering all the Colts were up against and the fact that it’s only Week 1.
49ers
Recent history should teach us not to overreact to the 49ers’ 28-0 steamrolling of the Rams on Monday night in San Francisco.
But just in case anyone out there just started watching the NFL this year, here’s the deal. The 49ers beat the Vikings in San Francisco 20-3 in Week 1 last season on Monday Night Football. It shows just how little Week 1 means.
The 49ers finished 5-11 and fired coach Jim Tomsula. The Vikings came within a missed field goal of reaching the NFC divisional playoffs and gave head coach Mike Zimmer an extension.
Chip Kelly is a better coach than Tomsula, but the 49ers proved nothing beating a good team in Week 1 last year. Beating the Rams, who are such a mess that they didn’t even dress No. 1 overall draft pick Jared Goff, proves even less.
Carlos Hyde
Part II of the wait-and-see developments from the 49ers’ 28-0 win over the Rams Monday night was Carlos Hyde’s performance.
Hyde ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns. He ran for 168 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings’ stern defense in last year’s season opener, but he ran for just 302 yards over the next six games and missed the last nine games of the season with a foot injury.
If Hyde can stay healthy, he can be the engine of Chip Kelly’s offense. But that’s a big ‘if.’
