As is the norm of every baseball season, the first half of 2016 has seen its share of surprises and disappointments.
It’s one thing to make observations on events now firmly in the baseball season’s rear-view mirror. It’s another to predict what will happen going forward – when the staying power of the contending clubs are truly measured.
Here’s a quick (and hopefully accurate) forecast of the months ahead. If you’d like to make any wagers on these predictions, make sure you do so at one of the best sportsbooks.
8. The Yankees don’t buy…or sell
Those that believe the New York Yankees (at 44-44 and 7.5 games out of first place) can return to the postseason are wishful at best, which raises the thought of putting at least one of their stud relief pitchers (namely Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman) on the trading block. Even prominent individuals within the organization are divided as to what the team should do by the upcoming non-waiver deadline. If there’s no concrete plan at this point, there probably won’t be one at all.
7. Cubs crack the century mark
After 31 games, the Chicago Cubs’ pace was at historical levels. On May 10, they were 25-6 with an eight-and-a-half game lead in the NL Central. Fast forward some two months, and that pace has slowed immensely. The Cubs still lead the Central by a comfortable seven-game margin, but they’ve been under .500 since. Every team hits a cold spell – even one this long. The Cubs are far too talented to keep struggling. Expect them to start winning with more regularity in the second half – which will ultimately lead to at least 100 victories and the best record in baseball.
6. Rangers and Astros provide the most exciting division race
These Lone Star teams nearly met for the right to represent the American League in the World Series. Each, though, were defeated in their respective Game 5’s of the Division Series. Both Texas and Houston are ready to try it again – with the Rangers grabbing hold of first place and the Astros surging in June to get within five-and-a-half games at the break. Despite the struggles of reigning Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, Houston continues to gain ground. Thus, this battle for AL West supremacy (not to mention state pride) should be closest of the six divisional races.
5. Clayton Kershaw’s prolonged injury dooms the Dodgers
It’s hard to imagine there is a more indispensable player for a team than Kershaw is for Los Angeles. Without Zack Greinke, the starting pitching staff became more reliant on their dominant lefty. Kershaw certainly didn’t disappoint — tallying 11 wins and a 1.79 ERA. He was rolling towards another Cy Young, until a back injury forced him on the disabled list. He will throw off a mound soon, meaning he could return next week. It’ll be hard enough to catch the Giants as it is. If Kershaw experiences any setback in his rehabilitation, L.A. can kiss the season goodbye.
4. Jonathan Lucroy joins Pomeranz to help Red Sox win AL East
As of the All-Star break, Dave Dombrowski’s short tenure as Boston Red Sox GM is highlighted prominently by the signing of David Price. But he is in the process of making a more meaningful impact by shoring up one of the team’s two weakest areas with Thursday’s acquisition of Padres’ left-handed starter Drew Pomeranz. He won’t stop there, however. Lucroy can supply both a steady bat and veteran leadership. Plus, his contract is very reasonable. Dombrowski will outmaneuver Texas and the other teams seeking a catcher as Boston vies to make Big Papi’s final season even more memorable.
3. Marlins sneak in as a Wild Card
Don Mattingly is embracing a new lease on a managerial life. After 88 games, his Marlins 47-41 and in prime position for the playoffs. This has ‘Manager of the Year’ written all over it, because it would have been hard to imagine Miami being in contention while Giancarlos Stanton struggled at the plate and Dee Gordon is serving an 80-game suspension. But the offensive consistency of Marcell Ozuna (17 home runs, .307 average) and the spectacular pitching of Jose Fernandez (11-4, 2.52 ERA) can make the postseason a reality.
2. Neither 2015 World Series team makes the postseason
We all hear about how hard it is to return to the World Series. And neither the Mets, nor the Royals have had it easy thus far in 2016. The main culprit has been a laundry list of injuries to key contributors — including season-ending ailments to New York right-hander Matt Harvey and Kansas City third baseman Mike Moustakas. What could impede each of their paths back to October is the heightened competition. The Mets have been dominated by the Nationals (and their former second baseman), while Cleveland is showing the Royals it’s for real.
1. Giants and Indians meet in World Series
Runs and homers may be higher than in past years, but there is still no adequate answer to a deep pitching rotation. These two teams have it. San Francisco’s two key off-season acquisitions, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, have combined for 24 victories. Cueto’s ERA is below 2.50, only topped by ace Madison Bumgarner. The hero of the 2014 World Series is on a similar roll — with an ERA of 1.94 and 146 strikeouts. The names on Cleveland’s starting staff are less notable, yet just as effective. Danny Salazar leads the team in wins (10) and ERA (2.75). Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Corey Kluber aren’t far behind. Throw in the likes of position players such as Buster Posey and Francisco Lindor, and there would be no shortage of intrigue.
