Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season is here. The slate is clean. What happened last year might provide a hint about what will unfold in the league this year, but inevitably some team will make the playoffs that no one expects and some team with Super Bowl aspirations will fall flat on its face.
There’s a good chance some Week 1 “upset” won’t look like an upset by the middle of the season. But based on what we know (or think we know) now, here are the five most likely Week 1 upsets.
(Odds are provided by Covers.com)
No. 5: Buffalo (+3) at Baltimore
This has a revenge-game element to it with Tyrod Taylor going up against his old team for the first time. Taylor threw 35 passes in four seasons with the Ravens before the Bills unearthed him last year.
Taylor has one less pass rusher to worry about. Elvis Dumervil is out with a foot injury. The Ravens have been getting a pass for their 5-11 season last year because of all the injuries they suffered, but it can’t be assumed that they’ll be a contender for a playoff berth with everyone back.
Dumervil is 32 and Terrell Suggs, who missed last year with an ACL injury, is 34. Steve Smith Sr., who missed the last nine games of 2015 with a torn Achilles, is 37. The Ravens brought in 30-year-old Mike Wallace hoping he can turn back the clock.
The Ravens are the sixth-oldest team in the NFL with an average age of 26.43, according to Philly Voice. The Bills are the 11th-oldest at 26.3. Both teams dropped 12 spots in those rankings from last season. While both teams are theoretically getting old, the Ravens were older to begin with.
Taylor is just 27 and he’s coming off a season in which he had the league’s seventh-best passer rating (99.4).
No. 4: Green Bay at Jacksonville (+4 1/2)
Losing this game wouldn’t be any reason for the Packers to panic, and it wouldn’t be any reason for Jaguars fans to clear their calendars in January.
The Jaguars have been advertised as a team on the rise. When up-and-coming teams start to improve, the wins tend to come at home first.
Packers receiver Jordy Nelson is healthy this year after missing all of last year with a torn ACL, but according to ESPN.com he might not be a full go for Week 1. Look for the trio of Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns to beat the Packers in a shootout.
This would be the Jaguars’ first season-opening win in exactly five years. It also will be the first time they’ve been over .500 since beating the Titans to open the 2011 season.
No. 3: Minnesota at Tennessee (+2 1/2)
Like the Jaguars, the Titans are a “stock up” team that has a chance to jazz up the drab AFC South. Like the Jaguars, the Titans can drum up a lot of optimism with a Week 1 win at home.
As the line indicates, a Titans victory wouldn’t be as much of an upset as a Jaguars win over the Packers. But that spread is ripe for the picking.
Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has a year of experience under his belt, and it looks like the Titans provided him with some tools in the draft.
Top graded rookies this preseason by position
QB: Dak Prescott, DAL
RB: Derrick Henry, TEN
WR: Tajae Sharpe, TEN & Tommylee Lewis, NO (tie)— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) August 29, 2016
The Titans and Vikings were 12th and 13th, respectively, on defense last season. The Titans allowed 342.2 yards per game and the Vikings allowed 344.2 yards per game. Tennessee returns its entire front seven this season.
That could be a problem for Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill or whoever starts at quarterback for the Vikings.
No. 2: Oakland (+1) at New Orleans
Vegas is giving the Raiders a little more respect than the Jaguars and Titans in Week 1 when it comes to AFC upstarts.
The Raiders added Bruce Irvin, Sean Smith and Reggie Nelson to a defense that ranked 22nd in the league last year, and Khalil Mack is coming off a 15-sack season that included 11 in the last eight games.
The Saints also took steps to improve their defense, bringing in Nick Fairley and James Laurinaitis as well as Browns castoffs Craig Robertson and Paul Kruger. That defense needed a lot more work than the Raiders’. New Orleans ranked 31st last season and allowed an NFL-record 45 touchdown passes.
Derek Carr’s 53 touchdown passes in his first two seasons are the second-most in NFL history, according to ESPN.com. Dan Marino had 68 in 1983 and 1984. The Saints defense is trying to gain respectability and Carr probably isn’t the quarterback it needs to face in Week 1.
No. 1: Steelers at Redskins (+3)
Expect the matchup between Josh Norman and Antonio Brown to be a little more civil than the one between Norman and Odell Beckham Jr. last year.
Norman says he respects Brown and Ben Roethlisberger, according to ESPN.com. He probably knows that no cornerback can completely shut down Brown. Norman can, however, prevent Brown from beating the Steelers by himself.
Another receiver will have to keep the Redskins’ secondary honest, but it’s unclear who that will be. Sammie Coates was supposed to fill Martavis Bryant’s shoes, but he was a mild disappointment in the preseason. Markus Wheaton is nursing a shoulder injury and isn’t guaranteed to suit up Monday. Undrafted Eli Rogers came out of nowhere to earn a roster spot, but can he do in real games what he did in the preseason?
On the other side of the ball, Kirk Cousins led the NFL with a 69.8 completion percentage last year and is playing for a long-term contract against a defense that’s a work in progress.
Plus, home teams are 17-7 in prime time Week 1 games since 2011.
