The Seattle Seahawks absolutely dominated the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, but let’s hold off on the dynasty talk—for now.
There are many factors working against the team in their quest for total domination. The NFC West is the best division in football; the Seahawks have questions about expiring contacts and impending free agents; and they also have recent history working against them.
So let’s take a look at their current situation, and how it affects the team’s chances of repeating and building a dynasty.
History
Since the start of the salary cap era in 1994, only two franchises (Denver Broncos, 1997 and 1998) and (New England Patriots, 2003 and 2004) have won back-to-back championships. And only the 1997 Green Bay Packers have earned a trip to the Super Bowl after winning it all during the previous season.
Just to give you an indication of how hard it is to repeat as champions in the NFL today, four of the last six Super Bowl champions missed the playoffs altogether the following season. While it’s completely foolish to think that Seattle won’t be among the top teams in the NFL next season, this recent history tells us a story that isn’t all too kind to its chances of repeating as champions. Whether it be injury issues or down seasons from core players, there’s always something that holds the team back.
Seattle may be one of the best Super Bowl winners in recent history, but look at how the equally impressive 2010 Green Bay Packers performed the following season. The 15-1 Packers were blown out at home by a New York Giants team that inched their way into the postseason after a Week 17 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. And no one saw that coming.
Free agency
One of the primary reasons it’s so hard to repeat as champions, is due to the parity that the salary cap era has brought. Where Seattle is in nowhere near as bad of a salary cap situation as the Baltimore Ravens were following their title win two years ago, they’re going to lose a few players to other teams who are willing to overpay for role players.
Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond and Tony McDaniel could easily move on in free agency. General manager John Schneider isn’t going to get into bidding wars with lesser teams that are desperate to add talent to their rosters. Looking at Baltimore this past offseason, Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger both went to mediocre AFC teams on relatively big contracts. While it was smart for Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome not to match those ridiculous contracts, it did impact their depth on the football field.
Logistically speaking, Seattle is in a better position to handle possible free-agent departures. The likes of Jermaine Kearse, Jeremy Lane, Byron Maxwell, Jesse Williams and Jordan Hill could fill the vacuum if those three free agents do leave for greener pastures.
Seattle is currently $631K under the cap and has the ability to cut several players loose in order to save money under the cap in 2014 (via Spotrac). Releasing the likes of Sidney Rice, Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Zach Miller could save the team about $25 million in cap room next season. However, those four players would represent about nearly $9 million dollars in dead money. It goes without saying that Schneider and the team’s brass would be working at somewhat of a competitive disadvantage if they have to go into the 2014 season with that amount of money allocated to players currently not on the roster. Losing Clemons, Bryant and Miller would also impact Seattle’s depth a great deal.
Young skill players will command more money
When you are a successful football team, much like Seattle and the San Francisco 49ers, your young players are going to want to get paid. Good general managers and front offices are able to overcome this for the most part. But it’s simply not realistic to believe that Seattle will be able to lock up all of its young players to long-term contracts. Let’s look at some of these youngsters set to look for raises in the next couple years.
| Player | Position | Contract Year |
| Russell Wilson | Quarterback | 2015 |
| Russell Okung | Offensive Tackle | 2015 |
| Richard Sherman | Cornerback | 2014 |
| K.J. Wright | Linebacker | 2014 |
| Earl Thomas | Safety | 2014 |
| Doug Baldwin | Wide Receiver | Restricted Free Agent |
| Golden Tate | Wide Receiver | Free Agent |
| Walter Thurmond | Cornerback | Free Agent |
| Cliff Avril | Defensive End | 2014 |
| Byron Maxwell | Cornerback | 2014 |
| Bruce Irvin | Linebacker | 2015 |
| Bobby Wagner | Linebacker | 2015 |
That’s a lot of talent set to become free agents over the next few seasons. We already know that the likes of Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Bobby Wagner are going to demand franchise-type money at their respective positions. Losing any of those players would be a tremendous blow to one of the most talented rosters in the entire league. Losing multiple players from that list would set Seattle back a big deal in its attempt to create some sort of legacy in the most difficult division in the league.
Simply put, the Seahawks are going to have to let players who contributed a big way to their championship season walk over the next few years. It’s now all about how Schneider and Carroll address these upcoming contract issues and what players they decide can be replaced through the draft. That will help determine Seattle’s level of success moving forward.
Either way, Seattle has a ton of player personnel decisions to make starting this offseason and into the future.
San Francisco 49ers are their kryptonite
It’s important to realize just how close the 49ers were to knocking Seattle off on its home turf in the NFC Championship Game. If a few key plays swing in another direction, if one or two calls go the other way or if Colin Kaepernick’s late-game pass to Michael Crabtree sails about three inches further, San Francisco would have represented the NFC in Super Bowl XLVIII.
In fact, Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman indicated the same thing following their annihilation of the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII (MMQB).
The NFC Championship was the Super Bowl,” Sherman says. “The 49ers were the second-best team in the NFL.
It really is a game of inches, guys and gals.
San Francisco isn’t going away anytime soon, either. They’re going to have six picks in the first three rounds of the 2014 NFL Draft, including two in the second round and three in the third round. It will have 2013 rookies Marcus Lattimore, Quinton Dial, Quinton Patton and Tank Carradine returning from what had to be considered red-shirt campaigns in 2013. Jim Harbaugh’s squad will also be looking at returning several injured players to the mix for full seasons in 2014, none more noteworthy than Michael Crabtree and Chris Culliver. There is no telling who would’ve won the NFC West if Crabtree was healthy for the entire season. That goes directly back to my statement about the unknown nature of injuries, much like what the Seahawks experienced with Percy Harvin this season.
These are the two best teams in the NFL right now. It just so happened that Seattle was able to secure home-field advantage and knock the 49ers out of the playoffs this year. But it’s not unrealistic to think the 49ers won’t return the favor next year.
The rest of the NFC
Without taking anything away from Seattle’s dominating performance in the Super Bowl, any number of teams in the NFC would have likely defeated the Broncos, as bad as they played on Sunday. Sure a lot of Denver’s mistakes were forced by superior talent on Seattle, but that was just the tip of the iceberg. The NFC is clearly a better conference with many teams ready to compete with Seattle near the top.
Looking past San Francisco for a second, the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West won 10 games this season and have a ton of young talent on both sides of the ball. They must not be ignored in the grand scheme of things moving forward.
And the Carolina Panthers, who were among the hottest teams in the NFL entering the postseason, have an incredible defense. With Cam Newton seemingly maturing in front of our eyes and fielding one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, Carolina will not go quietly into the night.
And what about the Green Bay Packers? They made the playoffs despite losing Aaron Rodgers for seven games during the regular season. How good are they going to be with Rodgers and Eddie Lacy together in the same backfield for a full season? Can they close the gap if general manager Ted Thompson succeeds in adding talent on the defensive side of the ball?
Second-tier NFC teams such as the Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams and even a talent-laden Detroit Lions unit will also be looking for a piece of the cake.
If Seattle was positioned in the AFC, much like it was prior to a move to the NFC West in 2002, we could easily be looking at a team that might run off a string of three conference titles in a row. But the fact remains, there is a lot working against this team in its quest to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Does this mean they shouldn’t be favored to repeat as champs? Of course not. They’re still right up there with San Francisco in the NFC, but it won’t be easy to win it all again next season.
We can’t overlook the competition that Seattle will be facing in the NFC West in 2014. And the player personnel decisions that it will have to make in the coming years will not be easy. They may be the odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl XLIX, but their journey to repeat will be a long and arduous one.
