Robert Griffin III suffered a dislocated ankle injury during the Washington Redskins’ Week 2 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And now, it looks like the third-year quarterback could miss the remainder of the season. The injury is a devastating blow to the Redskins, who had great plans in mind for 2014 with Griffin behind center and a new coaching staff in place.
A lot of folks are going to tell you that Griffin’s injury will prove beneficial for the Redskins, and that the injury-prone quarterback was not the team’s best option anyway. But please, proceed with caution before making the leap onto the Kirk Cousins hype train.
Cousins did a fantastic job coming in to guide the ‘Skins to a dominant victory over the Jaguars. He completed 22 of 30 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns, looking more comfortable than RG3 had thus far in head coach Jay Gruden’s newly implemented West Coast offense.
However, this superb performance did come against the lowly Jaguars—the same Jaguars team that was spotted a 17-0 halftime lead last week by the Eagles and still managed to lose by more than two touchdowns.
Cousins was no more impressive than Griffin during the preseason, despite some early arguments to the contrary, completing less than 65 percent of his passes and averaging just 6.9 yards per pass attempt to Griffin’s 7.1.
The sample size playing in Gruden’s offense is small, especially for Griffin, who threw just 20 passes during the preseason. Still, Cousins has done little prior to the Jacksonville beatdown to show he is truly a better quarterback than the former Heisman Trophy winner.
In his first two NFL seasons, Cousins was never more efficient than Griffin. According to The Washington Post, the Redskins converted first downs through the air with him behind center just 29.4 percent of the time. They did so with Griffin 34.2 percent of the time despite the average yards-to-go for a first down being greater for RG3 (9.36) than Cousins (8.78).
Cousins has been a less efficient quarterback to date, throwing for less yards per pass attempt and turning the football over far more often than RG3 has done throughout his career. His presence on the field has been an immediate downgrade from Griffin, with the Redskins’ success being substantially lower than other teams in the league.
In playing in five games and starting three last season, Cousins’ success rate, according to Advanced Football Analytics (h/t The Washington Post), was an embarrassing 36.1 percent—second only to Buccaneers and Vikings quarterback Josh Freeman.
Photo courtesy of The Washington Post
His career completion percentage before dismantling the Jags was a paltry 56.2 percent with a 4.9 percent interception rate. For perspective, neither number was better than what Eli Manning posted during his 27-interception campaign last season.
This kind of underwhelming performance will be exposed by the better defenses that await him on the Redskins’ schedule, such as the Seattle Seahawks on October 6.
In fact, in his three starts last season, he was able to complete just 53.1 percent of his passes for an average of 249 yards per game with four touchdowns and five interceptions. Those lackluster numbers were put up against three of the league’s worst pass defenses in facing the Falcons, Cowboys and Giants.
His only meeting with a top-flight defense thus far came against the Seattle Seahawks during the 2012 NFL playoffs after Griffin blew out his knee and then-head coach Mike Shanahan was finally finished feeding the hobbled franchise quarterback to the wolves. Cousins completed 3-of-10 passes for 31 yards.
Is it possible Cousins could be ready to take the big step forward in his third NFL season? Sure, especially now that he is playing in a West Coast offense that is more suitable to his abilities as a quarterback than Shanahan’s had been. But people in the media have been trying to hype the former Michigan State QB up since his first NFL start in Week 3 of the 2012 season, when he lit up the subpar Browns for 329 yards and two scores.
All of that hype has yet to come to fruition and the reality is: While the team initially raved about how great of a “value pick” he was, maybe he fell to the fourth round for a reason.
Playing in a new scheme (no matter how good the fit may appear on paper) and surrounded by questionable talent, there is no indication Cousins will be able to perform any better than Griffin against even average teams. According to multiple scouting reports heading into the 2012 NFL Draft, Cousins did not play well when faced with heavy pressure or flushed out of the pocket while at Michigan State. That may not bode well for him playing behind an offensive line that graded out as the 25th-worst pass blocking group in Week 1 by Pro Football Focus.
Cousins does have the potential to grow into his role and usurp Griffin’s starting job. There is certainly less room required of him to adapt to Gruden’s offense than there was of Griffin, who needed to learn to be more of a pocket passer if he was going to be successful for the long haul in D.C.
However, there is no definitive evidence at this time that suggests banking on Cousins just yet as the future starting quarterback of the Washington Redskins or any other NFL team. The 26-year-old gunslinger has much to prove as the leader of an offense, and this season looks like it will be his greatest chance to prove his worth to the league as a starting quarterback for an extended period of time.
