This wild-card weekend gave us three thrillers and one Dalton dud, providing a massive improvement over last season’s three multi-score wins and Dalton dud. Regardless of who you pulled for it’s hard not to appreciate the 14 quarters of sheer entertainment value. Thanks NFL!
(Packers, Bengals, Eagles and Chiefs fans, please refrain from punching me in the face.)
Let’s review five lessons pertinent to the divisional round and the NFL playoffs going forward.
Stainless in Seattle?
End Fletcher Cox and outside linebacker Trent Cole both rank top-10 in quarterback hits at their respective position yet hardly touched Drew Brees on Saturday. I figured this matchup could derail the Saints offense since a rookie third-rounder out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff would be standing across from them along with another dangerous edge-rusher in Brandon Graham.
However, left tackle Terron Armstead made the most of his third professional start by holding the left edge admirably even by veteran standards. The right side of Philly’s defense wreaked havoc on paper, yet on the field Cox didn’t pick up so much as a hit while Cole collected a sack and a hurry. Armstead mainly saw Cole and Graham but given the circumstances this situation turned out much better than it normally can for a rookie. It also may have helped that the Eagles mysteriously kept Cole on the sideline for portions of the Saints’ game-winning drive.
New Orleans will head to Seattle with better tackle protection than their earlier visit, when Charles Brown — the 41st ranked tackle in Pro Football Focus‘ pass-rush productivity metric— manned LT and Zach Strief had an atypical evening on the right side. Even so, Brees was only pressured on 12 of 39 drop backs in that 34-7 loss. We could see his protection improve in Saints-Hawks Part II.
Colts Need Second-Half Luck for Four Quarters
Frankly because this defense might not hold anyone below 30 from here on out.
Two weeks ago the Indianapolis Colts kept the Kansas City Chiefs to a solitary touchdown that was sandwiched between 10- and three-point efforts from their defense in a nice run from Week 15-17.
Then on Sunday night the Indy secondary looked more like the one that gave up 42 points to Andy Dalton and the Bengals in December, which incredibly doesn’t sound worse than letting the Chiefs come into your house and run up 44 points without Jamaal Charles.
Fortunately for Indy, Andrew Luck arrived in April 2012 with the capability to make up 38-10 second-half deficits in the postseason. This is an asset very few teams have had in NFL history and it’s great that the Colts can rally like they do, but getting behind the 8-ball will be 10 times harder at Foxboro or Mile High in January. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will keep the gas on the pedal.
(Nothing against the Chargers, but I believe no lead is safe if these two teams meet in the dome.)
The Colts will remain vulnerable to the run and can survive that; they must at least get their A-game from a secondary that has flashed excellent play at times this season, namely the first three quarters against Denver earlier this year.
Vontae Davis is recovering from a groin injury and may or may not find his form, Fellow cornerback Greg Toler suffered perhaps his worst performance of the year on Saturday, surrendering 142 yards on just three targets before leaving with a groin injury.
Perhaps Cassius Vaughn gets a shot this week given the injury situation but it’s hard to imagine that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers wouldn’t drop 30-40 points on this unit right now, which means just two quarters of Luck magic won’t do.
Ingram X-Factor
That’s not to say the San Diego Chargers’ 2012 top pick is consistent, but Melvin Ingram has shown a play-making ability that their front-seven just didn’t see enough of in his absence.
The last thing this overmatched defense needed was for Ingram to tear his ACL in organized team activities or Dwight Freeney to hit injured reserve early on. San Diego would grade out as PFF’s fourth-worst defense in 2013.
Results have been mixed since Ingram’s return in Week 14, yet on Sunday Ingram battled arguably the league’s best offensive line and picked up a quarterback hit, a pressure and a sack to lead his team in those combined categories. The timeliness of his contributions also came in crucial.
Showing versatility to peel out in the flat, the 34 outside backer picked off a back-breaking throw from Andy Dalton in Chargers territory. Moments like that take the air out of the building and the Cincinnati Bengals’ 27-10 home loss seemed inevitable from that point on.
Crabtree’s Back
I know Michael Crabtree been active since Week 13, but I’m talking back to stud status: The receiver that shredded defenses down the stretch last season returned just in time to give the Green Bay Packers fits.
It became clear that his achilles returned to 100 percent (or close enough) as he snagged two sideline passes on third-and-long during the San Francisco 49ers’ first scoring drive Sunday. In his first couple games back he struggled with grabs of that ilk but made them time and again in the 49ers’ 23-20 wild-card win at Lambeau Field.
Crabtree also displayed his typical shiftiness to make corners miss after the catch and savvy for finding the first-down marker. Crabtree tallied eight catches for 125 yards on the day after averaging under 57 yards in his first five games back from an achilles injury that cost him most of the 2013 regular season.
This not to say Crabtree was exactly poor in recent weeks, but that Colin Kaepernick’s favorite target has returned to vintage form and the Niners pass offense is peaking in the playoffs yet again.
Underdogs Feisty
Depending on the book, you could have seen three underdogs cover and the Niners-Packers game push, leaving wild-card weekend a wasteland for favorites against the spread. The divisional round looks ripe for the underdogs yet again next weekend with huge point spreads in three contests.
Early Division Round Spreads (via RJ Bell of Pregame.com):
Seattle -8.5 hosting New Orleans
New England -7.5 hosting Indianapolis
San Francisco -1 at Carolina
Denver -10 hosting San Diego
