Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He isn’t a bad quarterback and he’s experienced, which makes him perfectly suited to both assist and push a young starter. The New York Jets were smart to trade for him to push Geno Smith.
Fitzpatrick is also not a good quarterback. With the 11th most starts at the position since 2008, we know that with more certainty than most. At 33, we also know that Fitzpatrick is on the wrong end of the quarterback age curve.
It’s going to take more than “Fitzmagic” for him to have a breakout year. Even Fitzpatrick’s epic beard can’t help him.
Of course, Fitzpatrick still thinks he can have the breakout year that has eluded him for the past six season.
“Yeah, I don’t think there’s any doubt about that,” Fitzpatrick told the New York Daily News. “So much of the game for the quarterback is the mental side of it. Everybody always talks about my arm and how horrible it is. I promise . . . you can put on some tape (and see) that I can make all the throws that you want me to make or that I need to make. . . . I see myself continuing to get better rather than declining.”
You can appreciate Fitzpatrick’s confidence. Is he supposed to say his best football is behind him? Is he supposed to say he’s as good as he’s going to get? Clearly not, but his answer is also highly flawed and borders on the hilarious.
Fitzpatrick could be improving mentally, have the ability to make all the throws and still be declining overall. Just because he can make all the throws, doesn’t mean he will. Just because he understands the game better doesn’t mean he isn’t going to make mistakes when a 300-pound defensive tackle is trying to make a Fitzpatrick sandwich.
Out of 37 quarterbacks to start 32 games since 2008, Fitzpatrick ranks 31st in adjusted net yards per pass attempt. That puts him just below Ryan Tannehill and just above Matt Cassel and Sam Bradford. A case can easily be made that he’s started more games than his performance has merited.
There’s also almost no precedent for a breakout year at his age. When Rich Gannon became one of the best quarterback in the league in his mid-30s, he had 58 starts under his belt, but Fitzpatrick already has 81. Gannon also didn’t really breakout until wide receiver Jerry Rice and running back Charlie Garner arrived in 2001.
Gannon had two Hall of Fame wide receivers and one of the best dual-threat running backs in the league when he became the MVP. The Oakland Raiders also had one of the better offensive lines in the league at the time and Gannon hit it off with head coach Jon Gruden.
We shouldn’t forget that Fitzpatrick’s offensive coordinator this year is Chan Gailey, who was head coach of the Buffalo Bills during 45 of Fitzpatrick’s 53 starts with the team. Gailey knows him better than anyone, yet he was still backing up Smith until a linebacker went berserk over $600 on him.
Fitzpatrick missing a lot of pieces of the puzzle he would need to have a breakout year, even if the deck wasn’t already stacked against him. He’s a solid option and the Jets should be thankful they have him, but a breakout year in 2015? Don’t count on it.
