Photo credit: @NFL_Stats
Another check in the Manning-Brady debate landed firmly in the Bronco’s corner, before Richard Sherman made his two targets and one post-swat interview count.
Peruse the lessons from NFL conference championship Sunday that will play a major role as the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks clash in Super Bowl XLVII.
Seahawks Equipped to Handle Bronco Picks
The AFC title gave us Peyton Manning in Hall of Fame form and Tom Brady in the form that’s seen him outperformed in two straight playoff matchups by each of Peyton, Eli and Flacco. Yet the New England Patriots — given a healthy and recovered Aqib Talib — might have presented a tougher matchup for the Seahawks.
That’s not to say New England would have beaten the Denver Broncos with Talib on field but that Seattle’s defense is well-tailored to face the unique challenges the Denver offense creates.
Welker injures Talib on pick, block or cheap shot. Depends who you ask. (.gif via The Big Lead)
Whether the pick happens off the line of scrimmage as in the play below against San Diego, or five yards down the field, the success of Denver’s offense often depends on executing these in key situations.
Welker ends up wide-open at the goal line. (Image via SB Nation.)
The Patriots run their fair share of pick plays too — quite recklessly so in the first Pats-Broncos matchup — so this is not a criticism of the idea. Likewise, Seattle’s defensive backs are infamous for daring refs to throw flags on the type of contact that is called very little. It being the Super Bowl, my assumption is that zebras will receive directives to let’em play — and I believe this is an advantage to the Seahawks.
Talib primarily faced Demaryius Thomas and held him to 30 yards receiving in the initial Pats-Broncos meeting and it was a shame he left early Sunday. Richard Sherman will likely shadow Thomas for most of the day. Byron Maxwell and the rest of these physical defensive backs also have the hands to skillfully disrupt picks and timing inside five yards. Then Earl Thomas often sits over top to limit the inevitable shot play.
Broncos Pass Protection vs. Seahawks Pass Rushers Critical
Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett and the Seattle pass rush share as much responsibility for the ‘Hawks fourth-quarter rally past the San Francisco 49ers as Russell Wilson.
The 2013 defensive line signings had already earned salary before terrorizing Colin Kaepernick in the fourth quarter of the NFC title. Avril’s strip-sack of Kaepernick and Bennett’s recovery were squandered on the offensive end but did continue cranking up the heat on Kaepernick, who turned the ball over three times in the fourth quarter after San Fran had done so once in the 24 quarters prior.
Meanwhile, Manning could’ve made himself a little breakfast sandwich back in the pocket Sunday. Pass rush has been an issue for years in New England and this was brutally exploited by Pro Football Focus’ No. 1-rated offensive line of 2013. It wasn’t just Manning’s quick release yesterday, as PFF explains:
“(Manning) was pressured on only five of his 43 dropbacks, and spent more time in the pocket than usual, averaging 2.51 seconds to throw compared to taking only 2.36 seconds to throw during the regular season,” wrote Steve Palazzolo.
The only time the New England pass-rushers even really affected Manning was when Chandler Jones pulled his jersey back to force an end-zone overthrow. Expect Seattle to get there faster, but obviously Manning doesn’t need much time to find the open guy.
Rush Defenses Better Than Expected
After Zac Stacy and Mike James gashed Seattle’s run defense in the middle stretch of the season it inspired rational arguments that physical run attacks could prove Seattle’s undoing. Then a long run by Frank Gore keyed the Niners’ win over Seattle weeks later.
A weakness no more: After ripping off five yards a pop against Carolina in the divisional round, Gore mustered just 14 yards on 11 carries as Seattle grows stronger and more aggressive in the trenches each week.
The surprise from Denver wasn’t that their run defense is good, but that it could utterly shut down the league’s hottest running back. LeGarrette Blount was averaging 179.5 yards per game since Week 17 and then Sunday happened — six yards on five carries before the Pats gave up on him early.
Despite the injury to Von Miller this unit is holistically in tune with hitting holes before the running back even gets there, made possible by the rampage DT Terrance Knighton’s been on the past few weeks. “Pot Roast” chewed up Pats center Ryan Wendell and spit him out.
Most Exciting Matchups to Emerge for Super Bowl XLVII:
Seattle press coverage vs. Broncos receivers; Earl Thomas vs. Peyton Manning; Jack Del Rio vs. containing Russell Wilson; Wilson vs. relative lack of experience: learning better when to climb the pocket, when to razzle-dazzle and when to read the hot route; Broncos grinding out clock with run game vs. Pete Carroll’s aggressive 4-3 Under; Manning attempting comeback in the final minutes vs. the best secondary of this millennium; Demaryius vs. Sherman; Marshawn Lynch vs. backfield penetration; Julius Thomas vs. KJ Wright; Terrance Knighton vs. Max Unger; Doug Baldwin’s rising star vs. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie’s recent dominance.
Bookmakers vs. Betters
According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, “Seattle opened as the favorite at many locations – but HEAVY Denver action early now have the Broncos as the clear favorite.” He then tweeted this morning that consensus is Denver by 2.5.
This reminds me of last weekend when, after New England routed Indy and Denver survived San Diego late, heavy action bet down the line for the underdog Pats. We’ll know whether recency bias favors the bookmakers or betters in two weeks time.
