It’s safe to say that Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey and head coach Andy Reid have made an effort to give quarterback Alex Smith the playmakers he needs to be successful. Dorsey replaced drafted tight end Travis Kelce and replaced wide receiver Dwayne Bowe with Jeremy Maclin, two of many moves to try to find the right fits for his quarterback.
Despite the additions, Smith is highly unlikely to improve in 2015. That doesn’t make him a bad quarterback. His stats could marginally improve, but genuine improvement implies something else. It is difficult to imagine as he enters his 11th season in the league that his skill is going to improve significantly.
NFL.com senior analysts Gil Brandt picked the Chiefs to topple the Denver Broncos as kings of the AFC West in 2015. Among his reasons was that Smith would be a better quarterback. Brandt said he believes Smith will shed the “game manager” label and have his best season in 2015.
If Smith was still a young quarterback with highly variable output throughout his career, it would be hard to disagree with Brandt based on the team the Chiefs have built around him. In this case, Smith is one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the entire league. It’s an underrated part of his game as it gives his team a chance to win every week, but it also means larger jumps in production are unlikely.
Consider that Smith’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt has gone from 5.89 in his first year under Jim Harbaugh with the San Francisco 49ers to 6.61 in just nine games in his second year to 5.67 in 2013 in his first year under Andy Reid to 5.96 last year. That’s not a lot of variation and the biggest blip was the year he played a half season and still lost his job to Colin Kaepernick.
Smith has thrown an average of six interceptions the last four years with a high of seven and a low of five. His touchdown rate when he plays a full season (15 or more games) was 3.6 percent back in 2006, 3.8 percent in 2011, 4.5 percent in 2013 and 3.9 percent last season. His completion percentage has hovered around about 63 percent over the last four years, which is almost identical to his completion percentage the last two years.
Smith hasn’t thrown a consistent deep ball since turning his career around in 2011, which also coincides with an elevated sack rate. None of this is to point out that Smith is a bad quarterback, because he isn’t. He also isn’t what many would consider a good quarterback and shedding the “game manager” label at this stage of his career would very unusual.
Sure, Smith can still make some improvements, but no one should expect a fundamental change. Expecting Smith to become something he’s not does him a disservice.
Let Smith simply be the best version of what he is. For lack of a better term, that’s a “game manager.” If you want to see that term as derogatory, you aren’t going to be a fan of Smith. For Chiefs’ fans, it means a chance to win on Sunday and potentially the AFC West in January.
