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Breaking Down the Bracket: West Region

Posted by on Mar 20, 2014 02:30

Welcome to the final bracket we are breaking down, the West region. This is a region that looks to go through the top seed Arizona while having a potentially big Midwestern scrap in the Sweet 16.

If you missed any of the other previews: East – South – Midwest

Ken Pom

  1. 1 – Arizona
  2. 9 – Creighton
  3. 13 – Wisconsin
  4. 19 – Gonzaga
  5. 21 – San Diego State
  6. 22 – Oklahoma St
  7. 29 – Oklahoma
  8. 30 – Oregon
  9. 31 – Baylor
  10. 45 – BYU
  11. 48 – Nebraska
  12. 54 – North Dakota State
  13. 72 – New Mexico State
  14. 95 – American
  15. 115 – Louisiana-Lafayette
  16. 173 – Weber State

Ken Pom Offense

  1. 1 – Creighton
  2. 5 – Wisconsin
  3. 7 – Baylor
  4. 12 – Oregon
  5. 13 – Oklahoma
  6. 20 – North Dakota St
  7. 26 – BYU
  8. 27 – Oklahoma St
  9. 36 – Arizona
  10. 41 – New Mexico St
  11. 49 – Gonzaga
  12. 74 – Lafayette
  13. 101 – Nebraska
  14. 104 – San Diego St
  15. 155 – Weber St
  16. 199 – American

Ken Pom Defense

  1. 1 – Arizona
  2. 7 – San Diego St
  3. 13 – Gonzaga
  4. 27 – Oklahoma St
  5. 28 – Nebraska
  6. 47 – American
  7. 58 – Wisconsin
  8. 83 – Oklahoma
  9. 92 – Oregon
  10. 98 – BYU
  11. 116 – Baylor
  12. 124 – North Dakota St
  13. 128 – New Mexico St
  14. 134 – Creighton
  15. 193 – Lafayette
  16. 210 – Weber St

Points per Possession – Offense

  1. 1.21 – Creighton
  2. 1.17 – NDSU
  3. 1.16 – NMSU
  4. 1.14 – BYU
  5. 1.14 – Wisconsin
  6. 1.14 – Weber St
  7. 1.13 – Baylor
  8. 1.12 – Oklahoma
  9. 1.12 – Louisiana – Lafayette (ULL)
  10. 1.11 – Gonzaga
  11. 1.1 – Oregon
  12. 1.09 – Arizona
  13. 1.08 – Oklahoma St
  14. 1.07 – SDSU
  15. 1.07 – American
  16. 0.99 – Nebraska

Offensive Efficiency

  1. 120.8 – Creighton
  2. 117.2 – NDSU
  3. 116.5 – NMSU
  4. 114.9 – BYU
  5. 113.9 – Wisconsin
  6. 113.5 – Weber St
  7. 112.5 – Baylor
  8. 112.1 – OU
  9. 111.7 – ULL
  10. 110.9 – Gonzaga
  11. 110.2 – Oregon
  12. 108.7 – Arizona
  13. 108.1 – OSU
  14. 107.3 – SDSU
  15. 106.8 – American
  16. 99.3 – Nebraska

Points per Possession – Defense

  1. 0.9- Arizona
  2. 0.93 – SDSU
  3. 0.94 – Gonzaga
  4. 0.94 – American
  5. 0.99 – NDSU
  6. 0.99 – NMSU
  7. 0.99 – Nebraska
  8. 1.03 – Weber St
  9. 1.03 – OSU
  10. 1.04 – ULL
  11. 1.05 – Wisconsin
  12. 1.06 – Oregon
  13. 1.06 – BYU
  14. 1.06 – OU
  15. 1.07 – Creighton
  16. 1.09 – Baylor

Look at all those great defenses.

Defensive Efficiency

  1. 90.4 – Arizona
  2. 93.1 – SDSU
  3. 93.9 – Gonzaga
  4. 94.2 – American
  5. 99 – NDSU
  6. 99.3 – NMSU
  7. 99.4 – Nebraska
  8. 103 – Weber St
  9. 103.1 – OSU
  10. 104.5 – ULL
  11. 105.4 – Wisconsin
  12. 106 – Oregon
  13. 106.2 – BYU
  14. 106.2 – OU
  15. 107.2 – Creighton
  16. 108.8 – Baylor

Effective FG % (Weighs 3s)

  1. 59.4 – Creighton
  2. 57.3 – American
  3. 56.9 – Weber St
  4. 55.3 – NDSU
  5. 55 – NMSU
  6. 54.3 – Gonazga
  7. 52.2 – Wisconsin
  8. 52.1 – ULL
  9. 51.4 – OU
  10. 50.8 – BYU
  11. 50.6 – Oregon
  12. 50.2 – OSU
  13. 50 – Arizona
  14. 49.9 – Baylor
  15. 47.6 – Nebraska
  16. 46.6 – SDSU

There are some great shooting teams in this region. And then Nebraska and San Diego State.

Defensive eFG %

  1. 42.5 – Arizona
  2. 44.4 – NMSU
  3. 46.4 – SDSU
  4. 46.7 – American
  5. 47.2 – Weber St
  6. 47.8 – Nebraska
  7. 47.9 – NDSU
  8. 48.2 – OSU
  9. 48.4 – Gonzaga
  10. 48.5 – Wisconsin
  11. 49.2 – Creighton
  12. 50.4 – ULL
  13. 50.5 – BYU
  14. 50.7 – Oregon
  15. 50.8 – OU
  16. 51 – Baylor

Free Throw %

  1. 77.1 – OU
  2. 76.9 – Oregon
  3. 75.6 – Weber St
  4. 75.4 – NDSU
  5. 74.9 – Creighton
  6. 74.8 – Wisconsin
  7. 74.2 – American
  8. 73 – OSU
  9. 72.4 – Nebraska
  10. 71.9 – Gonzaga
  11. 70 – BYU
  12. 67.9 – ULL
  13. 67.9 – NMSU
  14. 67.7 – Baylor
  15. 65.8 – SDSU
  16. 64.3 – Arizona

More great shooting. A lot of great free throw shooting teams in this region. Then Arizona and San Diego State.

Offensive Rebounding %

  1. 40.5 – Baylor
  2. 38.9 – NMSU
  3. 37.2 – BYU
  4. 36.7 – ULL
  5. 36 – SDSU
  6. 34.9 – Arizona
  7. 31.9 – Oregon
  8. 31.8 – NDSU
  9. 30.5 – OU
  10. 29.3 – Gonzaga
  11. 29.3 – Weber St
  12. 26.3 – Creighton
  13. 25.8 – Wisconsin
  14. 25.6 – American
  15. 25 – OSU
  16. 24.5 – Nebraska

About halfway through, the teams just don’t rebound offensively. It’s an interesting grouping.

Defensive Rebounding %

  1. 75.7 – NDSU
  2. 73.3 – Weber St
  3. 73.2 – Arizona
  4. 72.8 – Nebraska
  5. 72.2 – American
  6. 72 – Gonzaga
  7. 71.2 – Creighton
  8. 71.1 – SDSU
  9. 70.8 – Wisconsin
  10. 70.3 – OU
  11. 70.2 – BYU
  12. 69 – Oregon
  13. 68.4 – ULL
  14. 67.2 – Baylor
  15. 67.2 – OSU
  16. 66.8 – NMSU

All the good defensive rebounding teams are in this region. You don’t go under 70 until team 11. Oregon is still pretty good as well.

Turnover % – Offense

  1. 12..2 – Wisconsin
  2. 14.6 – OSU
  3. 14.6 – SDSU
  4. 14.8 – Creighton
  5. 15.2 – Arizona
  6. 15.2 – OU
  7. 15.2 – NDSU
  8. 15.8 – BYU
  9. 16.1 – Oregon
  10. 17.3 – Baylor
  11. 17.6 – Nebraska
  12. 18 – Gonzaga
  13. 18.3 – NMSU
  14. 18.4 – ULL
  15. 19.9 – Weber St
  16. 22.3 – American

Before you get to the tail end, these teams don’t turn the ball over. Quite impressive.

Turnover % – Defense

  1. 21 – SDSU
  2. 19.8 – American
  3. 19.7 – Oregon
  4. 19.4 – Arizona
  5. 19.1 – OSU
  6. 19 – Gonzaga
  7. 19 – ULL
  8. 18.5 – NDSU
  9. 17.8 – Nebraska
  10. 17.3 – BYU
  11. 16.9 – OU
  12. 16.7 – NMSU
  13. 15.8 – Baylor
  14. 14.5 – Wisconsin
  15. 14.1 – Creighton
  16. 13.9 – Weber St

Not a lot of turnover forcing in this grouping.

Kyle Collinsworth of BYU is excluded because of his injury.

Top 16 Scorers

  1. 26.9 – Doug McDermott – Creighton
  2. 23.7 – Tyler Haws, BYU
  3. 19.1 – Elfrid Payton, ULL
  4. 19 – Davion Berry, Weber St
  5. 18.7 – Shawn Long, ULL
  6. 18.6 – Joseph Young, Oregon
  7. 18.2 – Taylor Braun, NDSU
  8. 18.1 – Terran Petteway, Nebraska
  9. 17.8 – Marcus Smart, OSU
  10. 17.1 – Markel Brown, OSU
  11. 16.8 – Xavier Thames, SDSU / Daniel Mullings, NMSU
  12. 16.7 – Buddy Hield, OU
  13. 16.2 – Nick Johnson, Arizona
  14. 15.3 – Cameron Clark, OU
  15. 15 – Sam Dower, Gonzaga
  16. 14.2 – Le’Bryan Nash, OSU

Top 10 3 Pointers

  1. 112 – Brady Heslip, Baylor
  2. 104 – Ethan Wragge, Creighton
  3. 98 – Phil Forte, OSU
  4. 94 – Doug McDermott, Creighton
  5. 89 – Buddy Hield, OU
  6. 81 – Ben Brust, Wisconsin
  7. 78 – Kevin Pangos, Gonzaga
  8. 76 – Kevin Arnois, NMSU
  9. 72 – Joseph Young, Oregon
  10. 68 – John Schoof, American

Top 10 Rebounds

  1. 346 – Shawn Long, ULL
  2. 313 – Joel Bolomboy, Weber St
  3. 301 – Josh Davis, SDSU
  4. 300 – Ryan Spangler, OU
  5. 295 – Cory Jefferson, Baylor
  6. 274 – Tshilidzi Nephawe, NMSU
  7. 273 – Nate Austin, BYU
  8. 265 – Aaron Gordon, Arizona
  9. 255 – Mike Moser, Oregon
  10. 234 – Prezemek Karnowski, Gonzaga
  11. 233 – Tony Wroblicky, American

Top 10 Assists

  1. 205 – Elfrid Payton, ULL
  2. 187 – TJ McConnell, Arizona
  3. 169 – Kenny Chery, Baylor
  4. 150 – Johnathan Loyd, Oregon
  5. 149 – Jordan Woodard, OU
  6. 148 – Austin Chatman, Creighton
  7. 146 – Matt Carlino, BYU
  8. 143 – David Stockton, Gonzaga
  9. 141 – Marcus Smart, OSU
  10. 135 – Darius Gardner, American

Top 5 Steals

  1. 83 – Marcus Smart, OSU
  2. 77 – Elfrid Payton, ULL
  3. 68 – Darius Gardner, American
  4. 64 – Daniel Mullings, NMSU
  5. 61 – Matt Carlino, BYU

Top 5 Blocks

  1. 113 – Isaiah Austin, Baylor
  2. 99 – Sim Bhullar, NMSU
  3. 89 – Shawn Long, ULL
  4. 82 – Skylar Spencer, SDSU
  5. 61 – Tony Wroblicky, American

March 20

2) Wisconsin vs 15) American – 12:40 – TruTV

Line: Wisconsin -13.5

This should be a rout. This has an over under of 121. That’s pretty low.

Wisconsin 65 American 48

7) Oregon vs 10) BYU

Line: Oregon -5

BYU was a questionable tournament team but without Kyle Collinsworth, they don’t seem like a great matchup with the Ducks.

5)Oklahoma vs 12) North Dakota State – 7:27 – TruTV

Line: Oklahoma -3

I think this is where the 12 over 5 upset is coming from. There is something about this Oklahoma team that distrust. I can see them being down 10 with 5 minutes left and trying for a furious rally. But not getting it.

North Dakota State 77 Oklahoma 74

4) Sand Diego State vs 13) New Mexico State – 9:57 – TruTV

Line: San Diego State -7

This game screams out San Diego State wraps Sim Bhullar and company up in a cocoon of defense until the Aggies are lifeless. That or SDSU loses by 7.

San Diego St 64 New Mexico St 50

March 21

6) Baylor vs 11) Nebraska – 12:40 – TruTV

Line: Baylor -3.5

If Nebraska can keep this game slower paced, I think they have a great shot for the win. The problem for them is that they are in front of a Texas crowd, which on paper should be good for Baylor. The Bears have been dangerous lately. In what appears to be an unbalanced coaching matchup, I’m going with Scott Drew. Feel free to mock.

Baylor 68 Nebraska 60

3)Creighton vs 14) Louisiana-Lafayette – 3:10 – TruTV

Line: Creighton -14

Lafayette didn’t play a ton of defense during Sun Belt play. They aren’t playing a Sun Belt team.

Creighton 79 Lafayette 61

1) Arizona vs 16) Weber State – 2:10 – TNT

Line: Arizona -20

I haven’t picked a 16 seed over a 1 in my life. Until now.

Weber St 74 Ari—

JK.

Arizona 84 Weber St 64

8)Gonzaga vs 9) Oklahoma State – 4:40 – TNT

Line: Oklahoma St -3

So many people, like myself, think Oklahoma State is playing great and could beat Arizona. Such has been the three day tradition, I will pick against my instinct.

Gonzaga 74 Oklahoma State 73

About Scott

I write Bearcats Blog and also on the Student Section.

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