SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (7-7) at DETROIT LIONS (9-5)
Saturday, 4:05 PM ET, CBS, Direct TV (714), Sirius (SD 86, DET 135)
Why Watch
The last time the Detroit Lions had a chance to clinch a playoff spot, Ndamukong Suh was 12 years old. They lost that game, and three more games after that, and somehow backed into the playoffs with an 8-8 record. That was then, this is now. With a win against San Diego, Detroit can clinch a wildcard spot and their first chance in the new millenium to win a game in Week 18.
However, San Diego is showing surprising new life, after being left for dead by the league. Philip Rivers has found a new best friend in Jared Gaither, the offensive tackle claimed off the waiver wires and currently protecting Rivers’ blind side. In the three games (all wins) since Gaithers’ signing, Rivers has thrown 7 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Chargers ended a six-game losing streak.
What To Watch
The biggest weapon on the field is Lions receiver Calvin Johnson, who erupted for a 9-catch, 214-yard performance against Oakland, capping an unstoppable day by scoring the game-tying touchdown in the game’s final seconds. (Credit for the win goes to Jason Hanson for the PAT, we suppose.)
San Diego allows only 201 passing yards per game, which ranks 6th in the NFL, but Football Outsiders has a much dimmer view of the quality of their pass defense. According to their metrics, opponents are pretty much able to throw when they want to against the Chargers’ secondary, but seldom have to do so because the run defense has been so poor. With the Lions’ run game dependent on Kevin Smith and his gimpy ankle, expect Stafford and Megatron to take to the air often.
On the opposite side of the field, Ndamukong Suh is back from his suspension and still quite capable of wreaking havoc, pairing with DE Cliff Avril to create inside-out pressure on Rivers and his reshuffled offensive line. However, the Chargers’ run game of Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert, key to the team’s early season success, is back to full strength and capable of defusing the best pass rush.
Who Will Win
These offenses may be well matched, but the Lions’ opportunistic defense and special teams (six combined return touchdowns) will make the difference. Lions clinch a playoff spot, and the Chargers’ playoff hopes all but evaporate.
