The black-clad, bad-to-the-bone Baltimore Ravens are … wait for it … the good guys in this AFC Conference matchup. It’s an unfamiliar role for Ray Lewis’ team that prides itself on being one of the biggest bullies of the NFL. But when you face off against Bill Belichick and ESPN’s chosen sons with the AFC Conference Championship and a berth in the Super Bowl at stake, there’s no room for two bad guys on this stage.
Good or bad, the New England Patriots have been trouble for Baltimore throughout their history. Despite playing Tom Brady’s team closely multiple times, the Ravens would always find a way to fall short — the path to defeat often greased by a fortuitous fourth quarter penalty call. In fact, prior to 2010, the Ravens had never beaten the Patriots.
That streak finally came to an end in last year’s playoffs, though, and now John Harbaugh’s team stands ready to make it two in a row. Can they succeed? We talked with Thomas Jackson of Ravens Football Machine, part of the Bloguin NFL network of sites, to get the answers.
TGS: Last week the Ravens withstood a very strong but ultimately flawed Houston Texans team, and in so doing, displayed more than a few flaws of their own. Can they play at the elite level necessary to defeat the Patriots?
Jackson: The Texans gave the Ravens everything they could handle and more. Imagine the Texans completely healthy (with Mario Williams and Matt Schaub as well) , and I think you’d be hard pressed to come out of that game with a W if you’re a Ravens fan. But that’s the reality of the playoffs as it’s more about who’s healthier at key positions and who avoids turnovers— and less about playing at an “elite” level.
Winning in the playoffs doesn’t need to be “pretty” or flawless, and it rarely is. The tempo is different. Each and every play is more focused, it seems, like a little universe of its own. Big stats don’t matter as much as big plays at big times do.
So maybe the Ravens were a little off-tempo in offensive execution against the Texans, maybe the Bye week layoff had an effect on timing, I’m not sure… All I know for sure is Houston’s defense is fast and good, and their offensive line is fantastic at zone-blocking for their running plays. The ultimate difference was Joe Flacco made a couple of great throws for TD’s, and T.J. Yates made a couple of bad throws for INT’s.
Tom Brady will not make bad throws. So if anything needs to become more “elite” for the Ravens, it will be their defensive designs and zone-coverage communication out there. This will be their biggest defensive challenge of the year… even bigger than the San Diego game in which they had a very difficult time against Phil Rivers.
TGS: The Patriots have had the Ravens’ number nearly every game, but lost to Baltimore in the 2009-10 playoffs. What was different about that matchup, and can the Ravens repeat it?
Jackson: The 2010 playoff win by the Ravens over the Patriots was the result of pretty good scouting by Cam Cameron and his staff on how the Patriots liked to play against the run. Cameron saw something on film which tipped him off to where the gap coverage assignments were coming from the Pats linebackers, and he exploited it with Ray Rice scoring on the first play from scrimmage on an 83-yard TD run. Not even Ravens fans expected that kind of beginning.
From there, Terrell Suggs then got a strip-sack on Brady in the pocket which resulted in another score. The rout was on… just one of those weird games where things snowballed in one direction. And no, I don’t think the Ravens can repeat that kind of game. The Patriots are going to be much better prepared this time around. They know the Ravens a lot better now.
TGS: Much of this game’s focus is going to be on Joe Flacco, and the inevitable comparisons to Tom Brady. He faces a much softer pass defense in New England than he did against Houston. Can he get comfortable and light up the scoreboard?
Jackson: Flacco will be only so comfortable as his unit’s running game will allow him. Joe needs a sustained running attack to get his best rhythm going as an accurate passer. He likes to run a lot of pass plays off play action. Joe’s a pocket guy, not a roll-out guy. He’s smart enough to know when to throw the ball away or take a sack, too.
I expect the Patriots to amp up defensive pressure on Joe in the pocket, maybe with a corner blitz or two. If he’s got his running game going, he can counter the extra pressure. But if the Ravens’ running game falters and it’s a close game or the Ravens are behind, you’ll see Joe come out of his comfort zone a little. He’ll press a little and maybe hold on too long in the pocket. That’s when bad things happen to Joe.
TGS: The Ravens’ own players seemed befuddled at the lack of Rice in the offensive diet. Will Cam Cameron feed the ball to his best player in this matchup, or does this game have to be won via the air?
Jackson: Cameron has got to establish a running game first, and let Flacco audible off that pre-snap if he sees a big opening for an air strike in the secondary. Ray Rice can run against the New England defensive front, too. The Pats’ big old-school guys like Vince Wilfork, as great as they may be, are easier for Ray Rice to run through and for fullback Vonta Leach to lead block upon. Ricky Williams needs to get 8 or 9 carries, too, as he matches up against the Patriots’ front pretty well, also.
As long as the Ravens are not losing by 10 or more early, I believe they will run with Rice and Williams a lot. Historically the Ravens only abandon the run when they are behind by 10 or more. That’s the funny thing about Cameron’s critics when they say Ray Rice didn’t get his 25-30 touches in a game… they fail to notice that sometimes when the other team is leading and stacks eight in the box, only an idiot would be calling run plays.
TGS: Every one of the Ravens’ key playmakers on defense made plays last week: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Lardarius Webb and Terrell Suggs. How do they match up against the key weapons (Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez) in the Patriots’ offense?
Jackson: The fact is, you can’t “stop” Gronkowski, Hernandez or Welker– you just can’t. All you can hope for is to set up your zone coverages and zone-exchanges with multiple looks, and at least have a bunch of guys swarming to the ball when these guys inevitably catch their passes. You just want to avoid the routine pitch-and-catch between Brady and his great receivers turning into a huge play.
Ideally, you must get a little extra pressure on Brady in his moving pocket, just enough to throw his timing off by a fraction of a second. He can hit any of his targets at will if you don’t disrupt his three or five-step drops just enough to make him think twice about the coverage out there.
The really big personnel matchup I’ll be looking at is Ray Lewis’ brain vs. Tom Brady’s brain. Lewis will be calling pre-snap adjustments and reading formations right along with Brady. That’s the coolest matchup aspect of this game to me — two future HOF’ers matching wits in real-time at the line of scrimmage, with each guy acknowledged as the smartest diagnostic signal-caller at their respective positions.
TGS: Do you have a game prediction?
Jackson: Realistically, my head says New England 27, Baltimore 24 in OT.
My gut tells me, however, if certain variables of weather play into the game (icy and wet, cold temperatures, wind), the Ravens would pull off an upset, as they are a team better suited and built for bad weather.
Our thanks to Thomas Jackson for answering our questions. You can read more of his Ravens insight at RavensFootballMachine.com, and follow him at @RavensMachine on Twitter.
