The age curve for NFL running backs is a brutal thing, and at the age of 30, is it finally catching up with Michael Turner?
Matt Ryan is carrying more and more of the offensive load, partly by design and partly by necessity as Turner rapidly disappears from the game plan. In Ryan’s rookie year, the Falcons’ running plays outnumbered their passing plays by 126. Last year, with Julio Jones bracketing Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez working the inside, their passing plays outnumbered their runs by 140. Do the Falcons get balance back into their offense? If so, who carries the rock?
The Falcons have skill on offense with quarterback Matt Ryan, tight end Tony Gonzalez, running back Michael Turner, and receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, but the running game and the red-zone offense have wobbled at times.
They finished the 2011 season 10-6, but they beat just two teams with winning records, Detroit and Tennessee. They were clobbered on the road by New Orleans, 45-16, yet fought the Saints and the Packers at home before losing close games to both.
As much as it seemed to disappear throughout the season, based on the team’s 2011 performance, you could easily call running back a position of strength for the Atlanta Falcons. That fact is, Turner is not going anywhere… at least not yet.
Michael Turner had arguably his best season since 2008, averaging 4.5 yards per carry on his way to over 1300 yards rushing and 11 scores. Ovie Mughelli was a top-tier fullback as always before injury cut his season short. Jacquizz Rodgers became a valuable contributor on offense down the stretch, and Jason Snelling is probably the best third-string running back in the league.
Of course, you might not think that considering how many fans have been calling for Turner’s head this offseason. While there is some logic in attempting to trade the franchise’s star running back (he’ll be making $5 million as a 30 year old next season, and his role on offense should be less prominent), a Michael Turner trade just isn’t going to happen and neither is his release.
While he is staring at the wrong side of 30, remember due to his years backing up Ladanian Tomlinson in San Diego he does not have the wear and tear of your average 30 year old running back. Couple that with Atlanta’s new pass-happy attack, the Falcons should be able to put off Turner’s departure for at least a couple more years.
However, and it is a big however… if we have learned anything from today’s NFL it is that running backs are a dime a dozen. Look at the draft, review the free agent market or just look at what Matt Forte is going through. Why would a team want to pay for a veteran or spend a high draft pick when guys like Arian Foster and Fred Jackson can be found on your local practice squad?
With that knowledge Atlanta would be wise to begin putting a plan in place to ease that transition and prepare themselves to move forward. Basically, see what the St. Louis Rams have done backing up Steven Jackson and do the opposite.
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