The San Francisco 49ers are playing in the NFC Championship game. Yes, that’s right. The ring of honor populated by Joe Montana and Steve Young is about to be joined by… Alex Smith. The 49ers are two wins away from etching a new face into the franchise’s Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks.
At the beginning of the season, not many imagined the 49ers with first year head coach Jim Harbaugh would have this much of an immediate impact on the team, completely turning around the culture in San Francisco and being positioned to win the NFC. After a 13-3 regular season, San Francisco played one of the most memorable playoff games in franchise history when they defeated the New Orleans Saints on January 14 by a score of 36-32.
San Francisco is fortunate to be playing once again in front of their home crowd. Both the Niners and the New York Giants are peaking at the right time and are coming off of great football games. Potentially bad weather could be a big help for San Francisco. There is no doubt that San Francisco is the more physical team and wants to see a low scoring game. Difficult weather conditions could also slow down the New York pass rush. If San Francisco can turn this into a ground game they would be very lucky.
Here are the three keys that will make the difference in this game:
Pure Punishment
Defense sets the tone for this San Francisco 49ers team. Woozy opponents have staggered and limped to the sidelines all season as the 49ers’ bone-rattling defense has highlighted the team’s run to the NFC Championship game. This was apparent last week, as the Saints’ patient approach of using short passes and “taking what the defense gave them” resulted in having two of their key offensive contributors knocked out of the game. Jimmy Graham was fortunate enough to come back. Pierre Thomas was not.
Being led by their defense is something new for the 49ers. When they were winning Super Bowls — five of them from 1982 to 1995 — offense was the team’s claim to fame. Players such as Joe Montana, Steve Young and Jerry Rice thrived in Bill Walsh’s beautifully choreographed West Coast offense.
But in this renaissance season, the 49ers have awakened memories of another Hall of Famer from their dynasty days — punishing defensive back Ronnie Lott. The 49ers defense, a collection of holdovers and newcomers molded by first-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, has become one of the league’s best.
San Francisco’s defense allowed 14.3 points per game (second-best in the league) and went 14 games without allowing a rushing touchdown, an NFL record to start a season. The final total (three rushing TDs) was the lowest since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978.
The 49ers are fast, relentless, sure-tackling and just plain mean.
Turnover Ratio
As a group, the 49ers excel in creating takeaways — they led the league with 38 — and making tackles. How they became masters of the lost art is a mystery, especially since tackling was expected to suffer this season as a result of the long lockout and short training camp.
Meanwhile, Alex Smith has experienced a transformation as a player, having been a mistake machine in his previous six seasons as quarterback. This season is his first with less than double-digit turnovers. It is also his first starting all sixteen games. That’s not a coincidence. But it’s also not an accident. Jim Harbaugh has simplified the offensive design to the point where Smith is not responsible for as many decisions at the line of scrimmage, cutting down on opportunities for miscommunication with his targets.
On the other side of the ball, Eli Manning has been having a brilliant season, but has also accounted for 20 turnovers this season. In some games he has been able to overcome mistakes, but there is a reason why the Giants have lost seven games this season, as compared with the Niners’ 3.
Alex Smith’s Home Field Advantage
The New York Giants will present a difficult challenge for San Francisco. Manning has been playing outstanding, mistake-free football over the last few weeks and his three star receivers are difficult to slow down. Victor Cruz has really emerged this year and Hakeem Nicks has played outstanding in the playoffs. The key to New York’s playoff run though has been their defense. Much like when they won the Super Bowl in 2008, New York’s pass rush has been amazing. When they line up the combination of Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, they are difficult to slow down.
San Francisco does not have the strongest offensive line, and will need to run the ball effectively and use short passes to slow down the Giant pass rush.
There is an unusual stat in Alex Smith’s splits, though: in the Niners’ 8 regular season home games, Smith was sacked 13 times. In their 8 road games, Smith was brought down a whopping 31 times. It’s possible that opposing crowd noise could have been a factor in his play, but that will be decidedly in his favor this weekend.
San Francisco is absolutely capable of winning this game and advancing to Super Bowl XLVI. Playing at home presents a huge advantage and is something the team can rally behind all week. The team couldn’t be hotter right now and needs to carry that momentum into this week. I think in the end, San Francisco’s strong defense, rushing game, and home field advantage will be too much for New York. Alex Smith will silence all his critics by leading his team to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 27, New York Giants 23
