I already hit on the AFC and now it’s time for the NFC. Tomorrow we’ll be wrapping up with playoffs and awards.
NFC East
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Dallas Cowboys
- New York Giants
- Washington Redskins
I’ve been doing this same thing ever since Chip Kelly was hired by the Eagles three years ago and I’m riding with him again. Philly is strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and play with speed. If Sam Bradford stays healthy the quarterback position should be better and if it isn’t they go with Mark Sanchez, who helped them get to 10 wins last season. They sunk big money trying to improve the secondary, they have three talented running backs and young talent with upside at the receiver position.
The Cowboys might have suffered the biggest loss of training camp when cornerback Orlando Scandrick went down for the season. Scandrick was the ‘Boys best player in their biggest weakness. Dallas is going to need their pass rush to make up for the deficiency as I talked about when it happened. That’s not out of the question with their additions to the front seven in Greg Hardy (when back from a four-game suspension) and edge rushing rookie Randy Gregory. Despite losing DeMarrco Murray a strong running game should still be the focal point of the Dallas offense, but if not a healthier Tony Romo and Dez Bryant are around to pick up the slack.
The Giants and Redskins both have their problems, but I’ll put the less dysfunctional team ahead of the team creating problems for itself. I trust Jay Gruden less than any coach in the league. With New York you at least have confidence they can put together a solid offense behind Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. What’s the part of Washington you believe in? I don’t have an answer to that and playing Kirk Cousins over Robert Griffin the Third takes away the one aspect that was a positive — the running game.
NFC North
- Green Bay Packers
- Minnesota Vikings
- Detroit Lions
- Chicago Bears
This isn’t to dismiss how good wide receiver Jordy Nelson is or his importance to the Packers, but they’re clearly the best team in the NFC North. Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Randall Cobb, plus Davante Adams should be a suitable number-two wide receiver in his second season. Defensively, the Packers got better last season when they shifted Clay Matthews to middle linebacker and they might have to do more of that again. Tramon Williams and Davon House need to be replaced as corners in the secondary.
Everyone’s favorite “sleeper” to make the playoffs I also have in second place in this division. Because everyone who is doing predictions seems to be going with the Vikings I’m going to have to veer off that bandwagon. I do think Minnesota is improved, but there are still question marks. The wide receiver position isn’t a sure thing, Teddy Bridgewater hopefully makes a jump, he hasn’t done it yet, and running back Adrian Peterson is coming off a season in which he didn’t play. You won’t ever hear me say a negative thing about a defense that has Mike Zimmer involved plus talent — that’s a recipe to look stupid.
The last time the Lions were coming off a season they made the playoffs they dropped from 10 wins to four wins and after another disappointing season head coach Jim Schwartz ended up fired. Jim Caldwell is hoping to avoid the same fate, but it might be tough. Detroit lost one of the more devastating one-two interior defensive line combinations with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fariley now playing elsewhere. Halota Ngata was brought in to try to stem the damage, but the ripple effect of this on the rest of the defense is something to watch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see better counting numbers from quarterback Matthew Stafford with a healthy Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate running all over opposing secondaries, but does that translate into actual better play?
John Fox sets out on his third head coaching job in charge of the Bears. In year one with the Broncos he went 8-8 and his first season with the Panthers he was 7-9. That was a respectable six and four-game improvement in both cases, but it took him until year two with both jobs to get to double-digit wins and a playoff berth. Chicago is coming off a 5-11 season and possibly the most disappointing season in the NFL in relation to expectations. The Bears ability to get better immediately comes down to Fox’s ability to improve a defense and bringing Jay Cutler to play to the level he has for the majority of his career at the QB position.
NFC South
- Atlanta Falcons
- Carolina Panthers
- New Orleans Saints
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ll go out on the limb (not actually on the limb) the team winning the division this season will finish with an above .500 record!
I’m going to go with the Falcons in first place behind a monster Julio Jones season in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Head coach Dan Quinn helps prop up a defense that finished 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA metric behind cornerback Desmond Trufant and a better pass rush featuring rookie Vic Beasley being the big reasons for the improvement.
The Panthers are essentially in the same exact position they were last year — they’re coming off a division title and no one believes they will do it again. The defense is still strong and the supporting cast of quarterback Cam Newton looks like a dumpster fire. Can rookie receiver Devin Funchess do what last year’s rookie weapon Kelvin Benjamin did? The Panthers losing Benjamin for the season was a huge hit and now the offense is relying on fragile running back Jonathan Stewart. If the Panthers can put together a mediocre offense they could once again find themselves at the top.
Drew Brees is still the best quarterback in this division, but in this case it doesn’t mean he’s on the top team. New Orleans is trying to shift it’s identity to a more balanced offense as they shipped Jimmy Graham out of town to the Seahawks for center Max Unger. The passing offense is going to revolve around diminutive wideout Brandin Cooks, which I’m extremely excited to watch. C.J. Spiller is supposed to take on the Darren Sproles role and Mark Ingram hopes to build off his best season in the NFL. The offense still has hope, but the defense is yikes level worthy.
There’s some potential here for things to head in the right direction for year-two of the Lovie Smith regime. Number-one overall pick Jameis Winston has talent work with featuring Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The question is can the offensive line supply enough time for him to throw the ball to them? Despite having stalwarts Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David to lead the defense I still think we’re a year away from what’s around them being good enough to jump into the top 10.
NFC West
- Arizona Cardinals
- Seattle Seahawks
- St. Louis Rams
- San Francisco 49ers
I went back and forth on whether to actually do it or not and I decided to pull the trigger on flipping the Cardinals and Seahawks.
For the first time in two years there’s questions hovering around Seattle and my concern is it’s about their biggest strength — the secondary. Seattle pass defense has ranked third and first in defensive DVOA the last two seasons and now we don’t know what we’re going to get. Kam Chancellor is chilling who knows where, Earl Thomas has injury questions marks and Cary Williams is playing across from Richard Sherman. The offense added tight end Jimmy Graham, but it was at the expense of their starting center. Seattle also lost it’s starting left guard in free agency. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are still here along with Sherman, I’m predicting a slight drop off not a large one.
The placement of the Cards ahead of the Seahawks speaks more to how I’m viewing Arizona. They’ve become a polarizing team with the prevalence of statistics to make predictions becoming more main stream (which I both acknowledge and use when making picks of my own). In the case of Arizona I think a couple of important aspects are available to show they can avoid being your typical fall back team. First, when Carson Palmer started a game last season they had a point differential of +54 (six games) versus a -43 (10 games) when he didn’t play. Second, when teams have Bruce Arians involved they consistently outplay expectations. A blurb from the Football Outsiders Almanac:
With so many questions marks on the field, we’ll have to look to the sideline for Arizona’s best hope in 2015. Remember who in charge of that 2012 Colts team that went 11-5 despite finishing 25th in DVOA? In two seasons as Arizona’s head coach and one as interim boss in Indianapolis, Bruce Arians — let’s not sugarcoat this — has absolutely kicked our ass. His teams have won 11, 10, 11 games (including two wins when Chuck Pagano was still on the sidelines for the Colts) when we gave them mean projects of 6.4, 6.4 and 7.3. And while most teams that win a bunch of close games in one season tend to lose those close games the following year, Arians may be the rare coach who bucks that trend. His 2013 Cardinals went 5-3 in close games, while the 2012 Colts went 8-0 after he took for Pagano. Prior to his time in Indianapolis, Arians ran the offense for five years in Pittsburgh, and those Steelers teams went 24-18 in once score games. That’s eight full NFL seasons for Arians as an offensive coordinator or head coach, and those teams have won nearly twice as many close games as they have lost going 43-23 in such contests. It’s easy to write off six close games in 2014 as a fluke of small sample size, but the 66 games under Arians’ belt seem a lot more concrete.
My biggest concern when it comes to the Cardinals is the offensive line and keeping Palmer upright. The defense should be stout again and they have plenty of talent on the outside.
While I have confidence in Arians, the opposite can be said of Jeff Fisher with the Rams. He’s become the king of bleh and he has Nick Foles as his quarterback. Legitimate LOL that Fisher watched Foles with Chip Kelly and thought “maybe I can get good play out of him.” Good luck with that one. St. Louis should have an excellent defense, but I don’t see it being enough to overcome the deficiencies on the other side of the ball.
The 49ers level of craziness might be the only rival for the Redskins. Simply put, I can’t see a team in this type of environment having success. Oh yea, they also lost tons and tons and tons and tons of talent on both sides of the ball.
NFC Playoffs
#1 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles
#2 Seed: Green Bay Packers
#3 Seed: Arizona Cardinals
#4 Seed: Atlanta Falcons
#5 Seed: Seattle Seahawks
#6 Seed: Carolina Panthers
